Chi's bid for Proxy War

There are disturbing reports of Chinese agencies trying to launch a proxy war with India by using the militant groups of the Northeast. Some of these plans apparently came to light after a hard-core United Liberation Front of Assam (Independent) cadre laid down arms recently. Meanwhile, police forces have also came to know about a plan of the militants to create trouble in Guwahati through a former ULFA cadre’s wife. The inputs available with the security agencies have indicated that some Chinese agencies are desperate to launch a proxy war with India by engaging the militant groups of the Northeast. There are also clear indications that the major militant groups of the Northeast came on to a common platform only after pressure from Chinese agencies, and that they have started operating together. The Chinese agencies apparently gave the militants the task of targeting the Indian Army and the police forces. As a consequence, a few attacks took place in galand, Manipur, Assam and Aruchal Pradesh. Apparently, the ULFA(I) is also planning to target the security forces with the help of Manipur-based outfits as well as the members of the NSCN(K). And though the army and the other security personnel are the principal targets of the militants, the possibility of their planting explosives in other places (in order to make their presence felt) cannot be ruled out. What is of considerable significance is the recent surrender of the hard-core militant Ron Asom, since he is aware of the situation in the militant camps in Myanmar and routes frequently used by the militants to enter India from their bases in Myanmar. The police is now crosschecking the estimate of militants in the Myanmar camps submitted by Ron Asom. “He did give us a figure, but as per our information, the number should not be that high. We will have to verify whether he is telling the truth,” police sources said. In any case, Ron Asom has provided some vital information to the police, and one such bit of information led to a successful operation in the Mon district of galand on the night of June 6, in which three hard-core militants were killed. Apparently, the militants, armed with sophisticated weapons, were planning to attack a camp of the Assam Rifles in Tizit of Mon district. However, after receiving information from Ron Asom about the routes frequently used by the militants, the security arrangements on such routes have been tightened. This has led to the successful operation by the forces. According to information received about yan Medhi, a hard-core militant, the ULFA(I) would be planning something sinister for Guwahati. This could be a plan for extortion, or something else.

What is very clear about the ULFA(I) is that it has metamorphosed into an outfit that lacks the military might and potential for terror that it had in its early days. This was inevitable with the breaking up of the outfit, with Arabinda Rajkhowa and his followers filly deciding to opt for negotiations rather than carrying on a pointless and unequal armed struggle that was getting it nowhere. For quite some time now, the ULFA has been engaged largely in minor acts of extortion in the hope of being able to raise the required funds for a return to its former ‘glory’. Even the recruitment to the ULFA(I) is no longer what is This is unlikely to happen, and our experience indicates that the coming together of militant groups of the Northeast at the behest of Chinese agencies is likely to be a bit of adventurous militancy that is unlikely to take the plans of a proxy war very far. After all, in recent years the police and other security forces have been a good deal more successful in dealing with the ULFA(I) and other militant outfits than in the past. One of the reasons for this is a much improved information network that has much to do with the recent successes of the police and the security forces in dealing with militancy and terrorism in the Northeast. It is very doubtful if the Chinese agencies trying to dictate to the militant groups will achieve any degree of notable success. Any such success is bound to be ephemeral.