Negotiating the US-China-India Trijunction

Dhirendra Newar

(The author can be contacted at email: dhiren.newar@gmail.com.)

In the interesting happening of recent developments in the field of international relation and geo-politics, now all the focus appear to be on USA, China and willingly or unwillingly on India. There has been a growing development in the field of the USA-China trade war with USA imposing several trade restrictions on China and Chinese retaliation. Even after its growing relation with USA after events like ‘Howdy Modi’ etc., India has also been entangled in this tri-junction after the scrapping of Article 370. China, being the all-weather partner of Pakistan, has been trying to internationalize the Kashmir issue along with Pakistan. In the backdrop of these scenarios, world politics today primarily focuses on the developments involving these three superpowers.

For starters, with the new doctrine of ‘Pivot Asia’, USA is now peeping into the matters of South Asia and South East Asia. With its long standing on the South China Sea (SCS) issue, USA determines its position on the right of free and secured navigation and overseas flight route right over SCS. China had been pointing towards bilateral solution of the issue, instead of third party intervention. Couple of years back, with the publication of a report by the US Defence department, whereby it alleged China of initiating modernization of nuclear capability, especially in the areas of SCS and Korean peninsula, the allegations went viral. This was not taken lightly by China and Beijing strongly condemned USA of ‘hegemony’ in its internal matters. It is a strong comment, many viewing it as derogatory in the international arena, having the energy of creating unhealthy relation between the two giants. And rightly so the relation between the two has not been in affirmative direction since then.

However, SCS is not the only issue. Apart from economic and trading tussles, USA and China are seen competing in the matters of West Asian big gamble, African penetration formula, and in South Asian politics, also touching SEAs. The tussle can be seen more visible in matters of economic and trade related disputes in recent days. Recently US President Donald Trump imposed more trade restrictions along with raising tariff barriers against Chinese products. China hit back by erecting negative barriers in the tune of America.

The concern for India is that the issue is not ending here. USA had published another report couple of years back where it also pointed towards growing militarization by China in the Indo-China border. This might have had a serious repercussion on Sino-India relations, if they wished to. USA has been pushing India to take a bold stand on the SCS issue. Though India’s position here has long been the same i,e. right of navigation and peaceful and free overseas flight, but the USA wants something more out of India. As a matter of fact, USA has helped India in listing Masood Azhar as international terrorist by United Nations, a move opposed by China for several years.

After the scrapping of Article 370, Pakistan has emerged as a new ingredient in the tri-juncture. Though the relations between India and Pakistan had always been confrontational over Kashmir, yet a new addition has crept in the scenario. Pakistan has been using every possible means to internationalize Kashmir ever since scrapping of Article 370 and it is leaving no stone unturned to involve China here. China has also been singing the same tune in the line of its all-weather friend and provoking international audiences to internationalize the issue. Though India has been stoutly maintaining that Kashmir is its internal matter, she has to admit the fact that it has got international and geopolitical tag which can’t be neglected. Given this development, India needs to realize that she has to convince the world community about the developing law and order situation in Kashmir, and try to normalize the situation there. However, a key development in this regard in recent times is that India has been not only vigorously pushing her foreign policy regarding Kashmir, but also playing hard power politics by citing to the world community the examples of Balochistan, POK etc. against the atrocities of Pakistan, besides also telling China not to interfere in its internal matters and respecting each others’ sovereignty and integrity.

In the ongoing gambling of international geo-politics centering around South Asia and SE Asia, India should be aware of the fact that it can neither take USA nor China for granted. New Delhi may well be thinking the developing India-US strategic partnership could help in confronting China in South Asian politics, but it may not be a viable option. To cite reasons, we can point towards the much hyped defence deal between US and Pakistan for supplying the USA F series fighter jets to Pakistan couple of years back which had really worried India. Given the fact that there is a huge trade deficit of India vis-à-vis China of around $50 billion, India has to step cautiously against her counterpart in Asia. Data from PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry showed that China exported goods worth around $60 billion in 2016 to India, while India exported products worth $9 billion only to China in the same year. With a gross domestic product (GDP) of $13.6 trillion in 2018, as per data from the World Bank, the Chinese economy is around six times larger than India which was only at $2.72 trillion last year. Also apart from this competitiveness, India and China both are full time members of Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS etc, which requires a healthy relation between the two. Also India should not forget that USA is something beyond its jurisdiction.

In the backdrop of the positivity and negativity of these developments, the skies are cloudy. As said, the USA is something beyond our jurisdiction, realizing this, India should try harnessing as much as possible from the positivity in her growing friendship with USA, without provoking her northern neighboring giant. Though India and China share a huge gap in economic terms, both are growing economies and both form the biggest market in the world. In other words, India should pursue her foreign policy independently, without being entangled in the USA gamble.