The Untameable Taliban: Force Stopping an Inconclusive War

The Untameable Taliban: Force Stopping an Inconclusive War

Captain (retd)

Joyjayanta Saharia

(Captain (retd) Joyjayanta Saharia was in Indian Navy. He can be reached at jsaharia@rediffmail.com)

The war with the Taliban in Afghanistan is the longest war in history the Americans have fought. It has been tiring, if not back breaking for the Americans to continue an 18-year-long war which still awaits a logical conclusion. America’s attempt to engage the Taliban instead at the negotiating table is an innovative step, though currently in a stalemate with unpredictability of the outcome.

Many wars, including the recent one, have been fought in Afghanistan. However, no invading power has ever succeeded in Afghanistan, to be labelled as ‘the Graveyard of the Empires’.

Geographically or topographically Afghanistan is not a unique battlefield, except being a landlocked state, with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan in the north, Iran in the west, and China and Pakistan in the east and to the south. It has a rugged terrain and a climate ranging from extreme heat to biting cold as the land rises from the scorching deserts to the high snow-capped peaks of the Hindu Kush. The Khyber Pass, which is a narrow corridor through the mountains, links the country to the Pakistan side of the Indian subcontinent.

The Arabs came to the region in the 600 AD and brought Islam, with acceptance and rebellion amongst the population, who were mostly Buddhists and Zoroastrians. Over the following centuries, Mongols, Iranians and native Afghans held power in the region.

Britain and Russia also fought for control over the Afghan region. Stemming from the diplomatic competition between the British and the Russian empires in the 19th century, the Russian advancement to the Central Asia was perceived to be a move towards conquest of India, which resulted in the British invasion of Afghanistan, the 1st Anglo-Afghan war which lasted from 1839-1842. This was followed by the 2nd (1878-1880) and the 3rd Anglo-Afghan (1919) wars.

By the 1970s, Afghanistan was an independent country. But Soviets had a great deal of power over the government as they provided financial and military aid. From Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s time onwards, Pakistan also got actively involved in Afghanistan’s internal matters. Propaganda warfare soon started. Many Afghanistanistani Muslims started to believe that Soviet Communist teachings were against their tradition and religion. A Muslim rebellion eventually broke out. To quell the rebellion and in support of the then Communist Afghan government, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979.

Pakistan at that time had General Zia at the helm who brought in his close confidant, Lt General Akhtar Abdur Rehman, to head the ISI in 1979. Under General Rehman, the ISI in partnership with the CIA conducted one of the biggest covert operations in the modern history. While the CIA supplied money and weapons, the ISI was independently in-charge of training of the Mujahidin and distribution of arms to the Afghan rebel commanders. Young Muslims around the world flocked to Afghanistan to fight against the foreign invader. Some 35,000 holy warriors joined the Afghan war from 1979-1989. The Soviets could not sustain the prolonged war in the mountains of Afghanistan and gradually pulled back.

After the retreat of the Soviet Army, the ISI created the Taliban comprising mostly of Pashtuns to take over Afghanistan. The Taliban nurtured by the ISI gradually overgrew in size militarily, politically and also in terms of confidence and aspirations, slowly disregarding the diktats of the ISI. The independent and powerful Taliban became mentor to many international terror groups and started giving safe refuge to the foreign terrorists, including Al Qaeda fighters. They continued their main objective of civil war and Islamic Jihad in Afghanistan to overthrow the ruling government. The Taliban finally took control of the city of Kandahar in 1994, followed by complete control of Kabul in 1996.

The 9/11 Al Qaeda strike in the US gave a new twist to the game. Based on intelligence, the US established the presence of Osama bin Laden with the Taliban in Afghanistan. The US demanded the handing over of Osama bin Laden which was turned down. However, the Taliban offered to hand over Bin Laden to a third country for trial, but not directly to the USA. In October 2001, the US and the allied forces launched ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ bombing al-Qaeda hideouts and training camps in Afghanistan. In December 2001 the Taliban regime was overthrown and a new Afghan Administration was installed. The Taliban got scattered in Afghan-Pak region, constantly changing its tactics for existence and attrition, gradually transforming into an insurgency group. Despite the presence of the UN nominated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the newly trained Afghan troops, the Taliban continued to attack market places, schools, religious and ceremonial gatherings, civil and military establishments. Augmentation of the US and ISAF strength has not reduced the Taliban menace to any significant level.

The US in the meanwhile has technically accomplished its task of avenging the 9/11 attack as pledged, dismantling the international terror network in Afghanistan. The US seems to have realized now the futility of continuing its presence in Afghanistan for any gainful purpose in the backdrop of the continued Taliban menace; rather it would be wise and sensible to close the Afghan chapter with a respectable exit. The peace initiative with the Taliban for their constructive participation in the Afghan political process is a step in that direction.

The negotiation with the Taliban is expected to be a complicated process. Zalmay Khalilzad, America’s chief negotiator, had said that the two sides agreed on a framework for a deal. The US would withdraw its troops in exchange for an undertaking from the Taliban not to provide sanctuary to foreign terrorists. The Taliban would also have to agree to a ceasefire and initiate negotiations with the Afghan government.

A phased withdrawal of US troops, initially with 5,400 (of 14000) troops in five months from the date of signing the deal was contemplated, subject to President Trump’s approval. America, however, has been insistent on withdrawal based on ground conditions.

Despite spelling out the preconditions for troops withdrawal explicitly by the US, and a supposed consent from the Taliban, suicide bombings by the insurgents continue even when the negotiations are in progresses, killing scores of people, including a US soldier recently. As expected, President Trump has called off all peace negotiations with the Taliban.

From the US perspective, violence cannot be a negotiating tool of the Taliban, even if it derails the peace talk. For the Taliban, it is the US who is in a hurry for reconciliation, not them. The Taliban, again in retrospect, does not seem to have a clear agenda, other than being a trigger-happy mercenary group. The killings during the peace process raise doubts as to whether the Taliban has a credible command and control structure or it has disintegrated into pro and anti-talk groups. Afghanistan, however, has not many choices to make if an eventual US troops withdrawal takes place. It has to be ready for a symbiotic existence with the Taliban with power sharing, or alternatively for a renewed civil war.

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