Iran: From economic sanctions to gunboat diplomacy

Iran: From economic sanctions to gunboat diplomacy

Joyjayanta Saharia

(The author, Captain (retd) Joyjayanta Saharia, Indian Navy,

can be reached at jsaharia@rediffmail.com)

A substantial part of the Middle East has been in a state of unrest for quite a long time due to incessant meddling by a number of expert hands. This has become chronic political eczema since the famous ‘Tanker War’ between Iran and Iraq in 1980 which dragged on for eight years taking almost a million lives. Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq followed by the Gulf Wars (Operation Desert Storm in 1990-91 and Iraq War in 2003) reshaped the stability of the Middle East. Many nations and the rulers of the Middle East carefully aligned themselves to one or the other super power for support and security.

Iran, which is a non-Arabic country in that region pursued policies and course which were significantly different from the other neighbouring nations. Geographically, Iran is a vast country with territory spanning to approximately 16.5 lakh sq km and a population of over 80 million. Although vast in size, the habitable area in the country is very limited. A large part of Iran is occupied by deserts, salt / swamp-ridden plains. There are two huge mountain ranges: the Zagros and the Elburz. Iran is defended naturally by its geography, with mountains on three sides, swampland and water on the fourth side. The Mongols were the last invaders to the interior Iran which was in 1219-21. During the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, the Iraqis deployed six divisions of its army to cross Shatt al-Arab River, which constitutes the Southern border between the two countries, in an attempt to annex the Iranian province of Khuzestan. The Iraqis could not even cross the swamp-ridden plains despites forceful attempts.

What makes Iran an eyesore to many western countries including Israel is its nuclear industry. These countries, particularly Israel are of the belief that Iran’s nuclear industry is also being used to develop nuclear weapons. The Saudis and other Arab countries also feel threatened by the prospects of an Iranian nuclear bomb; the fear is due to the Iranian hardliners’ visible intent for regional dominance, even though modern-day Iran does not seem to have imperial ambitions. The Arab nations may in turn attempt to source nuclear weapons from Pakistan (having closer ties) to counter the threat.

Iran was first put under US economic sanctions in 1979 after a group of radical students seized the American Embassy in Tehran and took hostage the people inside. The country has been under a series of economic sanctions then onwards due to alleged support to terrorism and due to its uranium enrichment programme which is linked to development and stockpiling of nuclear weapons.

In 2015, during President Barak Obama’s time, an agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed by Iran and six world powers. The agreement placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting of the existing sanctions. This agreement came as a big relief to the country which was over-exhausted financially and commercially. Iran soon started a host of new projects which had been stalled and shelved due to the sanctions. These included signing of contracts with Boeing and Airbus Industries for 80 and 100 new passenger aircrafts respectively for its national carrier Iran Air.

However, in May 2018 President Donald Trump announced unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 agreement terming it as “the worst deal ever negotiated”. This came as a bolt out of the blue for Iran. Almost all infrastructure and developmental projects came to a grinding halt including the fleet augmentation of Iran Air.

Oil accounts for almost 82 per cent of Iranian exports. Iran’s primary oil customers are China, India, Japan and South Korea. After withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the US granted waivers to China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey with an intention to provide time for these nations to transit to alternate suppliers. Italy, Greece and Taiwan made the transition complying with the American directives. Others, including American allies Japan, South Korea and Turkey continued importing Iranian oil and asked for further extension of the waivers. On April 22, 2019, the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that there would be no further extension of the waivers and accordingly, sanctions on Iran have been reimposed which have come into effect from May 3, 2019.

In response, President Hassan Rouhani declared that Iran would also stop complying with the deal and threatened to stop export of its enriched uranium and heavy water till the domestic stockpile reaches 300 kg of uranium and 130 tonne of heavy water, breaching the caps set by the agreement. Enriched uranium can be further processed in centrifuge to attain weapon grade purity. Similarly, nuclear reactors using Heavy Water as coolant can be utilised for production of Plutonium (a by-product) which is again a suitable fuel for nuclear weapons.

As part of the retaliatory measure, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc) Navy (Iranian Navy) General Alireza Tangsiri has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important sea lanes. It is the fastest sea route to Europe for the Gulf States. Sanctions against Venezuela and the Libyan internal conflict have already impacted global oil production. A disturbed and unsafe Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the global oil supply flows, would lead to cascading and detrimental effects on global commerce and economy.

The US has despatched a ‘Carrier Strike Group’ to the Persian Gulf along with B-52 bombers. Even though, the Iranian Navy is no match for the US Navy and can be easily neutralised, the Iranians may still be able to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for a sizable duration striking fear to commercial shipping which may lead to rerouting, delays and soaring oil prices.

To disrupt the commercial shipping, Iran may utilise its (reportedly available) unmanned speedboats in formation, armed with anti-ship missiles and rockets. The Kilo Class Russian submarines of the Iranian Navy with mine laying capabilities will be a bigger challenge to counter. However, in the case of a hot pursuit from the Iranian side, the US (and its allies) is likely to utilise it (as a much awaited opportunity) to bomb and destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities with precession strikes, rather than a land invasion through the invincible swampy terrain.

The riding factor in this war game would be time. Iran will like to gain time to enrich / convert the available Uranium to weapon grade purity, if not held, to arm its missiles (primarily to better its negotiating power). However, once or if hostility breaks out, to whatever scale, commercial shipping will be the one to take the first hit and to bear the brunt. The resulting effects in commerce and economy in the region with soaring global oil prices may leave very little option and time to the US to drag on indefinitely, which may eventually force a decision for a quicker curative approach through military strikes. Or, it may settle down slowly and silently (without much intervention from the international community) as a retake of the recent ‘North Korean Episode’ in the Persian Gulf.

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