The AGP-BJP alliance

Exactly two months after the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) had announced its decision to sever its relationship with the BJP and came out of the alliance, the regional outfit on Tuesday night returned to the fold. While the AGP had quit because of its opposition to the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, the BJP could not even introduce the said Bill in the Rajya Sabha despite passing it in the Lok Sabha. Thus, as the Bill remains frozen at the moment, the AGP has returned to the alliance, though some leaders within the regional party have opposed it. Leaders like former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta have said that while the decision to return to the BJP-led alliance should have been first discussed in the general house of the AGP, some others have said that supporting the BJP amounted to supporting the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill itself.

In reality, however, the AGP’s basic justification must be that it wants to keep the Congress at bay. The Congress party and whose successive governments since Independence are solely responsible for large-scale illegal migration of people – both Hindus and Muslims – from erstwhile East Pakistan and present-day Bangladesh, was trying to exploit the situation when the AGP opposed the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. The Congress party has also been looking at taking political advantage of leaders of the All Assam Students’ Union (AGP) meeting its president Rahul Gandhi in connection with preventing passing of the the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill. Through the passing of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill the BJP wants to provide Indian citizenship to members of the Hindu, Christian, Sikh, Buddhis and other minority communities who fled from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan because of religious discrimination in those countries. It is a fact that the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill is in total contradiction to the existing provisions of the Constitution as well as those of the Assam Accord. The Constitution of India does not discriminate people on religious lines when it comes to granting citizenship. It also does not differentiate foreigners and illegal migrants on the basis of religion. Likewise, the Assam Accord too does not divide foreigners and illegal migrants on religious line. The AGP, the AASU and various other groups in Assam fear that granting citizenship to a large number of Bengali-speaking Hindus from Bangladesh would lead to a situation where the Assamese-speaking and other ethnic communities of Assam would be turned into a minority in their own state. Though the BJP government at the Centre has been time and again saying that granting citizenship to the Bengali-speaking Hindus would not affect the status of the Assamese and other ethnic groups of Assam, it has not been able to spell out the exact number of Hindu Bengali immigrants who would get Indian citizenship.

Though the AGP has, till writing of this piece not spelt out what were the terms and conditions under which it had rejoined the BJP-led alliance, one thing that must have worked is that the BJP needs the regional party as much as the AGP wants the national party. It is a fact that the BJP could not have got a majority in the 2016 Assam Assembly election without the AGP’s support. The AGP too would have been nowhere if the BJP had not supported it.

Moreover, there is a general feeling that despite the AGP and various groups including Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti were so vocal against the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, the BJP did very well in the recent Panchayat and different Autonomous Council elections. There is also a general undercurrent that while both variety of illegal migrants – Bengali-speaking Hindus and Bengali-speaking Muslims – are bad for Assam, the former is a lesser evil. Moreover, the AGP contesting alone would only mean making the path smooth for the Congress. And, it is also a fact that voters in Assam are mature enough not to be swayed away by what intellectuals and others say ahead of elections. This was evident in several earlier elections in Assam.