Will Road Shows Convert Into Votes?

Silchar: After the two mammoth road shows in quick succession at Silchar, one by Congress general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi, and the other by BJP minister and NEDA convener, Himanta Biswa Sarma, last weekend in support of their candidates, Sushmita Dev, and Dr Rajdeep Roy, respectively, questions are being raised in political circles, will they convert into votes? Priyanka Gandhi did take an edge over Himanta in attracting crowd and played to the gallery to woo voters for Sushmita whom she described as ‘dynamic and active’ to work for the people and their development.

While she covered the rally route of 3 km on open truck, Himanta walked all along and came in close rapport with the masses and made impassioned appeal to them to ‘continue the process of development initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Sarvananda Sonowal.’ Both the ‘tsunami of public support’ was a new experience for this town and focus of hot discussion. Buoyed by the show of strength, BJP and Congress are optimistic about the victory of their candidates. While Congress claimed a turn up of 3.5 lakh people in the rally, BJP vouched for the presence of lakhs of supporters.

To claim victory on the basis of road shows will be going too far. There are many factors which need to be counted. An analysis of the votes and voting pattern on Silchar L S seat since the emergence of BJP wave in 1991 shows Congress has won it three times and BJP four times and it has always been a straight fight. Apart from the Hindu votes of 41% which include Meitei, Bishnupriya and Hindi speaking, Muslims count for 40%, tea tribe 13% and tribal groups 6%. The simple arithmetic is consolidation of Hindu and tea tribe votes and fragmentation in the Muslim and tribal support base can ensure the passage to victory for BJP. BJP’s support for CAB is expected to keep Hindu votes intact.

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s hurricane meetings penetrating deep into tea belts and tribal pockets have evoked huge response. The welfare measures taken up by the Centre and the state have gone a long way to woo the tea tribes. Moreover, swinging of Muslim votes in favour of NPP candidate Nazia Yasmin Mazumder in the absence of AIUDF in the fray will also be a deciding factor. Dr Rajdeep Roy claims with confidence the myth Muslims do not vote for BJP will be broken. No exaggeration, development is the greatest plank of BJP to reach out to voters.

Opposition of Congress to CAB has no doubt put Sushmita Dev in discomfiture and the party has no salvos to fire at its arch rival except raising the slogan, “chowkidar chor hai” during the road show. This has not gone well into the psyche of people here. The road shows are not the indicator of victory. Despite huge turnout at Priyanka’s road shows in UP, all the national news channels predict only 2 seats for Congress. Himanta Biswa Sarma on the battle ground is a seasoned politician and knows the alchemy of engineering and poll management. The battle of titans has reached the decisive stage and the 11,91, 174 voters will decide the fate of two titans, Dr Rajdeep Roy and Sushmita Dev, on April 18.

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