The Himalayan challenge

 Early warning systems (EWS) or Advanced Warning System (AWS) play a crucial role in mitigating disaster risk by alerting communities, government agencies, organizations to take precautionary steps. The AWS for the possible Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) of South Lhonak Lake in North Sikkim failing to work in time was a critical gap in disaster risk reduction that escaped the attention of the authorities concerned. The GLOF, believed to be triggered by a cloudburst around South Lhonak Lake, also washed away the Chungthang Dam of the 1200 Megawatt Teesta Urja Phase-III hydropower plant, exposing insufficient dam safety despite the power plant being the second biggest run-of-the-river hydropower project in India. The vulnerability of the dam was not unknown, as experts had been raising the red flag over the GLOF risks of the South Lhonak and Sakho Cho lakes in Sikkim. The catastrophe reminded us that the ease of doing business overshadows disaster risk reduction and could prove costly. It also raises questions over the quality of environmental impact assessments for hydropower projects undertaken in ecologically fragile Himalayan states and the northeastern region, as well as over dam safety. A comprehensive assessment of the safety of all other dams has become an urgent necessity to put EWS and AWS in place for probable disaster events. Experts pressed for EWS after detecting that South Lhonak Lake was growing in size. The construction of the Chungthang dam will not only cost thousands of crores of rupees and several years, but the Sikkim government and the authorities of the hydropower plant will also find it difficult to convince residents of Chungthang who have vowed to oppose dam reconstruction blocking the river. The apprehension raised by Chungthang residents is legitimate, as the disaster has punctured holes into the claim about the dam’s safety. Sikkim Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang has reportedly blamed substandard construction for the dam breakage and resultant flash flood. The more important question that needs to be asked post-disaster is why the AWS that was put in place by the National Disaster Management Authority in collaboration with the Swiss Development Corporation and the Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority did not work. The Swiss agency was to monitor the data with the help of the NDMA to issue timely warnings. The Sikkim government has learnt to inform the NDMA about the system not working. The answer to this question is critical for evolving effective EWS or AWS not only for disaster risk mitigation in Sikkim but also in other Himalayan states and in the northeastern region when the central and state governments are pushing for mega dam hydropower projects to tap hydropower potential. Addressing issues of climate change cannot be delinked from the EWS or AWS of the GLOF, as experts have found that vulnerabilities have increased in the melting of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change impact. As EWS for South Lhonak and Sakho Cho lakes was planned to be a prototype for other potential GLOF events in the Himalaya region, detailed investigation into its failure is of paramount importance to devise effective measures for GLOF risk mitigation to protect lives and properties and reduce damage to infrastructure in downstream areas. Glacial lakes being located in remote, inaccessible areas without human habitation monitoring the expansion of these lakes and other developing risks and potential dangers can only be achieved through the application of technology evolved through in-depth research and using satellite imagery. Central and state governments earmarking adequate funds for conducting such research and evolving required technology in collaboration with global experts will go a long way towards putting in place an effective EWS. Successfully designing a prototype EWS for South Lhonak is also important for putting in place a similar system for monitoring possible GLOF events in Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate risk in downstream areas, including the northern bank of the River Brahmaputra in Assam. Large excess rainfall requiring the release of hydropower dams in Bhutan that increases the intensity of floods in Western Assam areas reminds governments in the two neighbouring countries to find out if a potential GLOF event can increase the vulnerabilities in downstream areas when dam authorities will be compelled to open spillways but may not get enough time to act as had happened in the case of Chugnthang dam being washed away due to GLOF and causing a catastrophic flash flood. Building awareness among people about GLOF and how climate change increases vulnerabilities will ensure community participation in risk mitigation. The demarcation of floodplain zoning in the northeastern region needs prioritisation in disaster risk reduction. Incorporating increasing GLOF risks due to climate change to expand the demarcated areas, if required, can help protect lives and properties in the event of a disaster. Unfortunately, the draft model bill for floodplain zoning and demarcation has been put on the back burner by most states. The Sikkim disaster is an alarm bell for putting in place EWS for disaster risk reduction across the northeast region.