A well-considered Myanmar policy is necessary for India

As the situation in Myanmar is becoming grim, grimmer and grimmest each day, India is groping in the dark for a suitable Myanmar policy in the wake of the coup staged by the army there.
A well-considered Myanmar policy is necessary for India

Amitava Mukherjee

(Amitava Mukherjee is a senior journalist and commentator specializing in politics and international relations. He can be reached at amitavamukherjee253@gmail.com)

As the situation in Myanmar is becoming grim, grimmer and grimmest each day, India is groping in the dark for a suitable Myanmar policy in the wake of the coup staged by the army there. From an initial response of 'deep concern' about happenings in Myanmar and a wish for the establishment of 'rule of law and democratic process, New Delhi's assessment of the situation has now metamorphosed into the strong condemnation of junta activities there. This shows a sudden shift though India was not at all comfortable with presently incarcerated Aung San Suu Kyi's growing proximity with China. However, in New Delhi's assessment the Myanmar army, or the Tatmadaw as it is called, is too firmly entrenched an institution to be dispensed with while Suu Kyi's relevance to India's overall strategic interests in South Asia is also undeniable.

But will the Tatmadaw be able to hold water for a long time to come? The truth is that sections of the army are becoming restive and they are fraternizing with opposition forces. There are reports that about 800 army men have deserted.

The present volatile situation in Myanmar can cause worries for New Delhi in three ways. First, there may be an influx of Burmese refugees in several north-eastern Indian states giving a sudden jerk to the ethnic balance in the region. Secondly, there are reports that several ethnic tribal insurgent groups operating in northern and northeastern Myanmar have decided to come close to giving a united fight to the Tatmadaw. If this comes about then a close operational liaison between these ultra outfits and the northeastern Indian militants may take place giving a fillip to insurgent activities in this part of India. Thirdly, instability in Myanmar may harm India's Act East Policy under whose aegis several infrastructure projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highways and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project are being implemented.

Here lies the predicament for India dating right from the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. In 1962 U Nu, Nehru's friend was dethroned by General Ne Win. It was a great shock for the Indian Prime Minister because U Nu used to concur with Nehru on most of the international and bilateral issues. But Nehru had to swallow his displeasure keeping in mind the 1468-kilometre-long border that India has with Myanmar and as Naga insurgency had already started in the north-eastern part of the country. But the phlegmatic Ne Win allowed Daw Khin Kyi, the widow of Aung San, the legendary freedom fighter who was a close associate of U Nu for many years; to become Burma's ambassador to India. Her daughter is Aung San Suu Kyi who had later studied at the Lady Shri Ram College of Delhi.

But confusion remains on the horizon of the Indo-Myanmar relationship at India's end whether to support the junta or the pro-democracy movement which Suu Kyi had led since 1988. For the moment New Delhi can't come hard on the Tatmadaw because too many stakes are involved. The Chin community of Burma has deep ethnic ties in Mizoram. More important, a not-too-insignificant number of Naga people from the AO and Koniyak tribes, two important constituents of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim(NSCN)- Khaplang-Yung Aung faction, can be found on both sides of India – Myanmar border. Among all the Naga tribes the Koniyaks are the least educated but the most ferocious. Apart from Nagaland, they are present in the Tirap and Changlang districts of Arunachal Pradesh, a state which is always on tenterhooks due to its proximity with China. These cross-border ethnic ties may spell trouble for India if large-scale migrations from Myanmar to India take place.

Myanmar is likely to be a headache for India in the days to come. If the Government of India decides to remain soft on the Myanmar junta then there is a possibility that secessionist tribal groups like the Kachins, Karens and the United WA Army of Myanmar will try to stoke the fire of insurgency in India's Northeast. In past, the above-mentioned Burmese rebels had provided safe corridors for Indian insurgent bands to Yunnan of China. Beijing will, in all probability, maintain good relations with these Burmese secessionist groups as the oil and gas supplies it receives from Myanmar pass through the rebel-held territories. China had even once staged a show of strength on Myanmar's northeastern border in the wake of Tatmadaw's retaliatory actions against the secessionist Kokangs who are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese inhabiting the northern part of the Shan state.

Too much mutual understanding with the Tatmadaw will however pose difficulties for India. China will also balance its equations with Suu Kyi on the one hand and the junta on the other. Signs of it are there as Beijing has refrained from overtly criticizing the junta takeover. Secondly, the junta is also playing its own game with India. Joint Indo-Myanmar operations against northeastern Indian ultras sometimes take place but there are instances of the Myanmar army unilaterally releasing some of these apprehended insurgents without informing India. For a long time, the People's Liberation Army of Manipur is reported to have maintained a base in the Taka area of Myanmar which lies on the banks of the Chindwin River. It has now shifted the base to the remote Shan state where the anti-talk faction of the ULFA is also present. Moreover, the Burmese junta's recent history indicates that it maintains a soft attitude towards the Issac-Muivah faction of the NSCN and provides it is backup' areas in Myanmar.

For the moment India has no other option but to maintain a cordial relation with the junta in Naypyidaw. But it may result in some amount of diplomatic isolation as public opinion is hard in different countries of the world against merciless killings of pro-democracy protesters by the Tatmadaw.

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