The political wind in the country is changing with two by poll results in Uttar Pradesh sending worrying sigls to BJP that 2019 general elections which is knocking at the door won’t be a cake walk. The consolidation of opposition ranks burying past hatchet has thrown open many new equations in the electoral politics of the country. To add fuel to the fire, saffron brigades’ own ally are also parting ways. Telegu Desam Party led by Chandrababu idu which walked out of the NDA alliance is a clear indication that nearly a year ahead of all important general elections, all is not well in the alliance. Even permanent allies like Akali Da and Shiv Se are singing different tunes questioning the functioning of the four-year-old government. It’s very tural for opposition parties to sought accountability of the government performance but when the allies starts to question there things become bit tricky for rendra Modi government. BJP which came into political prominence riding on huge anti incumbency of the previous UPA regime finds itself in the similar position. For the first time the government is facing a no confidence motion moved by TDP and TRS. Though there is no danger to the government since it has number on its sides but the very process puts a serious dent into the image of the government which came to power riding on the plank of development. And with sounds of discord emerging from various corners even its regiol allies like Asom Ga Parishad in states like Assam are taking a step back and alysing the prospects of remaining in the alliance. In Assam, North East’s biggest state- where BJP thronged to power with an ally AGP things seems to be not going too well between two partners. In the upcoming municipal elections in the state both parties will contest against each other which gives credence to the fact that AGP is also trying to make its own electoral space in the state. But the move just a year ahead of general elections in the state does not augur well for BJP which has set its eye to remain in power till 2022. The possible prospect of breaking up of its regiol alliance will surely make the road tougher for saffron brigade which of last few years has tasted electoral success in assembly elections across length and breadth of the country. After tasting electoral success in Tripura and galand, BJP President Amit Shah has set an ambitious target of winning 21 seats from the North Eastern states in the coming general election. Eight North Eastern states including Sikkim accounts for 25 parliamentary seats in the Lok Sabha.Mr Shah set this target for party members and asked them to work towards achieving this target.The BJP tiol president’s assertion is aimed at strengthening the party’s organisatiol base in the region.
There is also an obsessive surge among opposition parties to somehow defeat Mr Modi. In the mid-1990s, as VP Singh was scrambling to help form a non-BJP, non-Cong ‘Third Front’ government. Singh was seen as the origil mascot of third front politics: in 1989, he became prime minister by forging a coalition with, quite miraculously, the outside support of the BJP and the left. The single point agenda then was to remove the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government. The question that is now blowing in the political wind: will a similar anti-rendra Modi coalition be forged in 2019?
The successful alliance between the Samajwadi party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in the recent UP by elections is being seen as a pointer to the future: In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee has already announced her desire to forge a ‘Federal Front’ of regiol parties, including veen Patik’s Biju Jata Dal. In Telanga, K Chandrashekhar Rao, is also dreaming of a similar regiol alliance. But can this obsessive urge to somehow defeat Mr Modi become a game-changer? In terms of pure arithmetic, the answer has to be in the affirmative. In 2014, at the height of the Modi wave, the BJP got 31 per cent of the vote, largely concentrated around north and western India, while the main opposition Congress won around 19 percent of the vote. In effect, the BJP and the Congress between them won half the popular vote. This leaves a substantial vote share to the ‘others’ which can potentially translate into seats with the help of strategic alliances: based on 2014 figures, an SP-BSP alliance, for example, could bring the BJP down by as many as 35 seats in UP, a state which the saffron forces had swept then.But elections are as much about chemistry as they are about simply adding up the numbers.