By Dr B K Mukhopadhyay
Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from today’s levels, reaching 9.15 billion by 2050. Where is the journey towards feeding the world population at a reasoble price? Food prices are going up a continuous basis – demonstrations as well as social unrests have badly affected a number of capital cities. Time is ripe for dealing firmly with the agricultural disarray.
Clearly if the current trends are of any indication, the food and agricultural policy system itself is in disarray. The symptoms of such a disarray are not difficult to locate – incoherent/ idequate response to exploding food prices; slow down in agricultural productivity growth.; water problems ; a disorderly response to continuously disturbing energy prices; rapid concentration in multitiol agri-business cope rations without adequate institutiol innovation aiming at properly guiding them; lack of progress in addressing scarcity; widespread nutritiol problems [ hunger/ obesity/ chronic diseases] plus agriculture related health hazards [a vain influenza, etc] and adverse impact on climatic fluctuations.
In fact the overall situation of food front has been- in the recent past especially – far from being satisfactory with food prices ruling high all over the globe.
Underinvestment in areas related to food, nutrition/agriculture [research/infrastructure/rural institution] invite spill over effect/global impacts, among others. It is high time that sincere collaborative programmes are resumed among the countries in order to adequately address opportunities and challenges.
The ongoing situation calls for giving a big push to farm investment especially keeping in view the plight of the entire developing tions. Though 60 percent of South Asian countries are still dependent on this sector, yet the growth rate of this sector in particular leaves much to be desired. In the entire developing block this is the reality emating mainly from idequate investment, rural infrastructure, research and development and idequate diversification to high value crops.
Side by side: non availability of quality and cost effective inputs, low efficiency of inputs use and fast deteriorating soil health and water resources remain as the critical concerns. Agriculture requires a big push and so as to realise the much coveted high growth rate vis-à-vis food security. We are really entering into a difficult stage globally and tiolly in agriculture. In Sri Lanka 32 percent of country’s food requirements is met simply by imports for which the annual expenditure is 100 billion Sri Lankan rupees. Dwindling food stocks and rising prices reflect the reality- the very concern, which, in turn, must be given top priority. Tackling the threat of climate change and reducing yield gap are the crying needs, among others. In many of the current alyses it is being pointed out that Thailand becomes one of the gainers out of these upward trends in food prices as this country produces surplus food gains. But what is the gain emerging from this trend for the Farmer – their plight remains more or less same and it is the traders who are gaining most of the prices that is obtained.
Back home - are we not the victim of our own negligence? We are still counted to be largest reservoir of poverty in the world, with 300 million of people, as per the tiol poverty line definition, and well above 800 million people just surviving on less than $2 per day.
Neglecting agriculture result in heavy immediate and future loss. The huge upcoming population in the workable category, in turn, is one of the rare assets that could give rich dividends exactly by the same route as Chi gained in the previous years.
The real challenge that come in the way of making agriculture an instrument of development lays outside agriculture – maging the political risks (political economy of agricultural policies and simultaneously strengthening governce for implementation of these policies. The crucial need is there to share the ideas, experiences and expertise, setting up of a common seed bank, joint research centre, surveillances and early warning system between the tions. Investment and regiol cooperation in research and development must be at the top of regiol meets be it north or south. Building up partnership with the scientists and research bodies have now become more essential than ever before. And then go for rapid technological innovation.
The reality should not be denied as well. So far fast emerging economies like India are concerned the fact remains that the ongoing trend is steadily moving in terms of registering quicker growth in agricultural productivity. Good going- growth and modern farm practices and inclusive technologies are being implemented in order to foster the rural growth process. It is also a fact that cellular technologies, wireless communication networks as well as GIS based agro – software technologies are reaching rural India to dissemite vital information and updates on weather, farming technologies, fertilisers, livestock, commodity prices as well as stock markets.
Still, a huge number of villages do not have access to advanced farming technologies and interactive communication networks, not to speck of the pace of rural electrification and clean drinking water availability is it not the appropriate time to broaden the sight and look at vital aspects – re-identifying policy dimensions and initiative; capacity building through PPP, individual initiatives and joint ventures; boosting agri-business and agri-marketing; GIS mapping and harvesting trends; mitigating climatic change hazards; precision farming – optimum utilization of resources; lending heavily on most modern agri-practices; micro-fince and micro credit and attaching top importance to food security?
Needless to say the responsibilities are to be shouldered not only by banks [who have been duly responding to Government’s call for bolstering the credit flow to this sector], but also Government Deptt, NGOs, Commodity Exchanges; agri-marketing and State marketing Board and of course the Extension Departments of various States. Time is ripe for a more well-knitted coordited actions so as to : initiate inter-sectoral-linkages; progressive decision making, information sharing and performance improvement; capacity building; creating more opportunities for partnership building, development reorganization and capacity enhancement for the rural stakeholders.
But one has to clearly remember that the failure rate is never looked into. It is better to remember that under a comprehensive environment two and two not always make four. Expected loss call for making provision along with keeping the wolf at bay (read unexpected loss). Potato cultivation is better finced when food-processing activities extend friendly hands. It is not to be forgotten that the under-privileged section is bearing the burnt of climate impact as they are neither equipped enough to prefigure meteorological changes nor do they have the capacity to mitigate the impact caused by climatic hazards and no specific early warning system to forecast tural disasters [earthquake in Chi, floods in Rajasthan, etc.]
Needless to say that more delay means more damage – no planning is better than wrong planning. Time is come when this myopic tendency is done way with. A non-traditiol approach is also experienced when the ongoing process is supplemented steadily. Fast creation of self-help-groups does mean a little if not corrective / supportive measures are not taken to resist the same from breaking down.
As the matter stands at this juncture it is thus clear that in the first half of this century, when the world’s population grows to around 9.15 billion, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double, while increasingly, crops may also be used for bio-energy and other industrial purposes. New and traditiol demand for agricultural produce will go on putting increasing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting to and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve tural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. It is also clear that in most regions fewer people will be living in rural areas and even fewer will be farmers, who, in turn, will need new technologies to grow more from less land, with fewer hands de facto.
(The writer is a noted Magement Economist, an Intertiol Commentator on Business and Economic Trends and Principal, Eminent College of Magement and Technology, can be reached at [email protected])