How climate change and agriculture impact each other

Dr B K Mukhopadhyay

(The author is a Professor of Management and Economics, formerly at IIBM (RBI) Guwahati. He can be contacted at m.bibhas@gmail.com)

Dr. Boidurjo Rick Mukhopadhyay

(The author, international award-winning development and management economist, formerly a Gold Medalist in Economics at Gauhati University)

During and post-pandemic, one of the biggest concerns has been the looming global food insecurity that has already exhibited several clear signs in the UK, Europe, and the USA. While most markets cope with this particular challenge in their own ways, the ongoing challenges around how farming practices cope with climate change, and also how farming and related Agri activities contribute towards climate change still need continued attention.

When it comes to food insecurity, shortage, or scarcity challenges- the challenge is often about understanding whether it is an availability or accessibility issue. Global food security depends on both sufficient food production and food access, and FAO defines it as, "all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life".

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) reports reach a consensus that Agriculture along with the wider food production system, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Practices such as sustainable intensification in agricultural practice to compensate for reduced production (while the demand for animal products continues to rise) could actually boost these emissions. Current projections show the demand for livestock products will grow by +70% between 2005 and 2050. A quick fact checks below for readers who are new to this area of study:

 While agriculture is a vulnerable sector to the impacts of climate change, it also remains the fourth highest greenhouse gas emitter globally.

 Climatic changes, shifting pests and diseases, and increasingly frequent extreme weather events affect food production and security globally.

 Warmer temperatures will increase the length of growing seasons and may increase the production of crops such as sugar beet and leafy vegetables.

 The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will continue to increase plant growth generally, although dependent on other variables such as temperature and water availability.

 Changing rainfall patterns and reduced availability of water for irrigation all threaten agricultural production, particularly in areas where water supplies are already under pressure.

 Increased flooding, including that caused by sea-level rise, may lead to substantial losses in crop production in low-lying agricultural areas and may contribute to compaction, waterlogging, and erosion of soil.

On one hand, the global population continues to rise with India and China still projected to become the most populous countries by 2050, on the other hand, the changing tastes and dietary preferences of global consumers do both shape and also distort the production and distribution of food amongst other demand. Statistically, food production is struggling to keep up as crop yields level off in many parts of the world, ocean health declines, and natural resources—including soils, water, and biodiversity—are almost at full capacity which therefore, calls for newer methods of production as well as consumption, both being interdependent and critically important. Two years ago, the World Bank evidenced that 690 million people go hungry every day, which is roughly 8 percent of the global population. The numbers can only be expected to rise as the world will need to produce about 70 percent more food by 2050 to feed an estimated 9 billion people.

Climate Change affects

Agriculture and vice versa (A)

Undoubtedly, agriculture has remained directly vulnerable to changing effects of climate change, whether this is due to increasing temperatures, weather variability, shifting agro-ecosystem boundaries, invasive crops, and pests, or more frequent extreme weather events. In thousands of farms, from the US, Brazil to India, and northeast of China, climate change is reducing crop yields in addition to the nutritional quality of major cereals, thereby lowering livestock productivity. The challenge has always been about identifying practices that would firstly, achieve the target production and secondly, maintain the food quality to meet the demand consistently.

How agriculture contributes to climate change pains

At the same time, agriculture generates 19–29% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A study by climate change, agriculture, and food security (CCAFS) illustrate that the footprint of Climate Change and Food Systems is somewhere between a fifth and a third of the greenhouse gases emitted globally. This staggering number, therefore, incorporates all aspects of food production and distribution, including growing crops and raising livestock, manufacturing fertiliser, and storing, transporting, and refrigerating food.

Agriculture accounts for around 80 per cent of these emissions while the combined contribution of transport, refrigeration, consumer practices, and waste management also continues to grow at the same time. For example, before everyone gets a seat and food is on the table, our food is produced, stored, processed, packaged, transported, prepared, and served. At every stage, food provisioning releases greenhouse gases. Farming alone releases significant amounts of methane and nitrous oxide, two powerful greenhouse gases. One-third of food produced globally is either lost or wasted. From a long list of recommended actions, addressing food loss and waste is a top priority in order to reach the climate goals and reduce stress on the environment. It is important to recognize at this stage, that interplay and effects of climate change and agriculture also do affect the achievement of the SDGs.

And how climate change

impacts agriculture

Determining what crop grows in which places based on Agri land and climate compatibility also adds to the woes. For example, the total output of the three biggest calorie-providing crops, i.e., maize, rice, and wheat are projected to fall in many developing countries as temperatures rise and rainfall becomes more unpredictable. This makes the Agri practitioners and policymakers think about the impending transformations of the agricultural landscape. The UNFCCC also projects that by 2050, climate change could cause irrigated wheat yields in developing countries to fall by 13 per cent while irrigated rice could tumble by 15 per cent. Also, in Africa, maize output, which is not compatible with increased temperatures, could lose 10 to 20 per cent of its yields.

Warmer air temperatures affect the length of the growing season over large parts of Europe. Interestingly, the flowering and harvest dates for cereal crops are now happening several days earlier in the season. Particularly, in northern Europe agricultural productivity might increase due to a longer growing season and an extension of the frost-free period. Warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons might also allow new crops to be cultivated. On the contrary, in southern Europe, extreme heat events and reductions in precipitation and water availability are expected to hamper crop productivity. Of course, there are other factors such as pests and diseases that also contribute to these outcomes. Western France and south-eastern Europe, will experience (as we speak now in summer 2022) a drop in total Agri output due to hot and dry summers.

Examples of climate-smart agriculture and how they are supported (B)

The Climate Change Action (CCA) Plans by the World Bank, 2016-2020 and then 2021-2025, works with countries to design and deliver climate-smart agriculture that achieves some of the challenges mentioned earlier in the article – the focus on increased productivity, enhancing resilience, and working on reducing emissions. The past returns for the climate plan ending in 2020 were rather promising, so they have scaled up certain operations to apply best practices to newer regions and tailor them according to national and regional farming settings.

In Bangladesh, a CCA project helped build the resilience of livestock farmers by improving animal health and addressing climate mitigation along with improving production efficiency, improvements in feeding strategies, breeding, manure, and waste management. This, in addition to reducing CO2 emissions from the procurements channel for perishable essentials.

In China, a suite of projects worth US$755 million of World Bank investments supports resilient and lower-emissions agriculture practices and institutions. One CCS project helped expand climate-smart agriculture through better water-use efficiency on 44,000 hectares of farmland and technologies improving soil conditions and boosting production of rice by 12% and maize by 9%. More than 29,000 farmers' cooperatives have reported higher incomes and increased climate resilience through this project.

In Morocco, the Green Generation Program works toward increased inclusion of youth while strengthening resilience across all four dimensions of food security: availability, access, stability, and utilization. The technical extension supports farmers' adoption of additional climate-smart agriculture practices and will target 12,000 farmers.

In Uzbekistan, a country where agriculture accounts for approximately 25% of GDP thereby employing about 26% of the labour force. Historically, cotton and grain are the country's principle crops [contributing to 8.3% of Uzbekistan's external earnings in 2021] and the elimination of quotas and price controls in 2020-2021 is facilitating a shift to higher-value fruit and vegetable cultivation. The World Bank with the CCA works closely with the Government (Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources amongst others) to support a fundamental shift from cotton and wheat monoculture toward a farming system that is more resilient to climate shocks–including horticulture. In several regions of Uzbekistan, these projects have applied climate-smart practices that improve soil health and reduce land degradation.

A core goal on this front for these countries is to work out how well they are delivering on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the agriculture sector, which will subsequently contribute to progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for climate action, poverty, and the eradication of hunger. Particularly Goal 13 which calls for climate action promises to support the green transition, create green jobs and inclusive growth, make economies and societies greener, and invest in sustainable solutions. For Agri, it includes a range of options from sustainable intensification to using renewables-powered farm equipment. Some food for thought for countries that are trailing with their SDGs and Agri-climate change strategies to consider going forward.