India's tightrope walk over Myanmar refugees

The swelling number of Myanmar nationals in Mizoram has triggered serious humanitarian and diplomatic challenges for India. Ignoring both or either of these challenges has become increasingly difficult for the Government of India. With no sign of an immediate end to the internal crisis of Myanmar following the military coup, the twin problems require deft handling by India to prevent escalation. Around 2,000 Myanmar nationals have crossed over the Mizoram-Myanmar border to escape violent clashes between the Myanmar Army and pro-democracy movement supporters over the last week. This has increased the number of Myanmar refugees taking shelter in the North-eastern state to over 18,000. The actual count will be known after the Census of Myanmar nationals in Mizoram undertaken by the Mizoram Government is completed. The Census operation is aimed at maintaining proper documentation of those taking shelter in different parts of the state. The Mizoram government has also been issuing identity cards which are expected to gain momentums after the Census. Apart from providing food and shelter documentation process will be helpful for the repatriation of the refugee after the situation becomes conducive for them to return. The majority of the refugees have fled the Chin State of Myanmar which shares international borders with six of the total 11 districts in Mizoram. The Central government had asked four Northeastern states – Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh bordering Myanmar to intensify security measures along the international border to prevent the illegal influx of Myanmar nationals in the wake of violent clashes in the neighbouring country. It also clarified that the State Governments and Union Territories do not have the power to grant refugee status to anyone. The Mizoram government, however, refused to turn away Myanmar nationals and provided them food and shelter. The persistent stand taken by the Mizoram government is that Myanmar nationals from Chin State in Myanmar and Mizos belong to the same ethnic group called Zo, but were separated by political boundaries drawn by the colonial British regime and once they have came to Mizoram, they must be provided food and shelter on humanitarian ground. India is not a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention, 1951 or the 1967 protocols under the convention. Mizoram government has so far released Rs 80 lakh for providing food and shelter to Myanmar refugees but the rising number is going to put more stress on the exchequer of the cash-strapped states. India cannot overlook its strategic interests in Myanmar which is the gateway to South East Asia and must tread cautiously on the issue. It also cannot ignore growing anti-China sentiments across Myanmar with pro-democracy movement supporters alleging China backing the post-coup military crackdown. It has become critical for India to push for restoration of peace and democracy in the neighbouring country, but primary lessons of diplomacy and statecraft keep reminding to be careful in articulating its response to the situation which is developing fast and will take time to stabilize. At the same time, the refugee situation snowballing into a major humanitarian crisis of food and shelter attracting global attention cannot be overlooked and needs a meticulous response to prevent escalation. This puts the spotlight on the peculiar situation of India having to deal with the influx of refugees from neighbouring countries from time to time without a national policy on refugees like the Sri Lankan and Tibetan refugees in the past. The latest experience of differences cropping up between the Mizoram Government and the Central Government over the issue of people from Myanmar crossing over to India teaches a lesson that without a clear national policy on refugees dealing with such a situation is going to be more complicated. The Central Government by regularly and more frequently apprising the border states about the strategic interests of the country plays a critical role in reminding the States about the importance of the country presenting a cohesive response to any situation in neighbouring the country. Myanmar's internal crisis has also increased the risk of proliferation of more small arms and other contraband into India's Northeast to destabilize fragile peace in the region which cannot be overlooked by Indian security forces and intelligence agencies. India continuing to impress upon resolution of the conflict through dialogue so that peace can return to the neighbouring country at the earliest is in the best interest of India and preventing an escalation of the situation developing in Mizoram into a larger crisis. It is also in the interest of India's key connectivity projects through Myanmar for deepening trade and commerce relations with ASEAN countries under the Act East and Neighbourhood First Polices. The refuge situation in Mizoram growing into a humanitarian crisis may derail these vital connectivity projects and jeopardise India's foreign policy initiatives to deepen ties with ASEAN and isolate China. India is walking a tight rope between a humanitarian crisis on its soil and its strategic interests in Myanmar.