Modi vs who in 2024: Many emerging alternatives amid changing contours of opposition unity

Monoj Kumar Hazarika

(mkhazarika11@gmail.com)

'Modi vs who?' will be a dynamic debate over the next one-and-a-half years till the next 2024 general elections. The recent endeavour for a united non-BJP front has made more headlines and less headway. Parties trying to stitch up the unity are making individual convenient efforts with repeated flip-flops, resulting in receding two steps backwards after advancing one step forward. With many aspirants throwing their hats into the ring, the 'who' portion is already getting crowded making for an iridescent contour.

TINA to MENA: Post-2019 general elections the axiom of 'There is no alternative (TINA) to Narendra Modi has trivially changed to 'Many emerging notable alternatives' (MENA) in 2022! With 'Modi vs Rahul' deliberated guardedly, 'Modi vs Mamata' grabbed headlines for some time. But within months after the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) emphatic victory in Punjab Assembly polls, the thrilling drama of Maharashtra changeover to the recent contrastingly casual changeover in Bihar, the alternative rhetoric has conveniently changed to 'Modi vs Nitish' and 'Modi vs Kejriwal'. While Nitish Kumar displayed his taciturn character by changing his stance frequently, AAP has stridently declared Arvind Kejriwal as the suitable contender for Prime Minister's (PM) post in 2024. These aspiring Chief Ministers reckoning for the PM post will definitely put up a hard-nosed show, in case the 2024 national verdict is unexpectedly fractured!

Modi vs Rahul: Dithering to get a new party president 'democratically', Congress isn't helping themselves. Resentment and rebellion prevail. Weakened after repeated electoral debacles, the dwindling Congress is trying to conserve its domination of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), despite many of its associates abandoning it. Unable to check its in-house chaos and turmoil, the continuing exodus of many leaders across the rank and file, however, still choose to ignore the elephant inside the room! As reported, Sonia Gandhi's reluctance to continue as party president and Rahul being adamant to have a non-Gandhi as the new chief, the party workers might be jittery and find themselves in a curious situation. Predictably, they expect to continue pleading with the triumvirate of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka to endure the leadership role! Their planned 'Bharat Jodo yatra' aimed to build a greater connection between the party and the people seem to be one priority agenda now. Performance in the upcoming state assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year and nine states next year is extremely crucial which will be the actual precursor for the 2024 national contest. Moreover, the perceptible truce with the G-23 dissenters after their 'Chintan sivir' in Udaipur, now seems to be rather woolly after both Ghulam Nabi Azad and Anand Sharma resigned from their committee posts. Unrest within and clouded in privileged mindset, their call for opposition unity is therefore unconvincing. Thus, before deliberating on 'Modi vs Rahul' in 2024, Congress has a bigger task in their hand-regaining tangible credibility by winning elections.

Modi vs Mamata: Bitterly vociferous till a few months back, Mamata Banerjee exhibited exuberance by initiating the opposition unity is beleaguered after the wicked scam of 'cash for jobs' unearthed in West Bengal. With a couple of her lieutenants in enforcement agencies' custody, she felt rattled and is busy trying to bring her house in order, mainly with respect to public perception. This exposes of brazen corruption has definitely poured cold water on her PM aspiration, at least for the time being. Moreover, declaring that they will contest in all parliamentary constituencies in WB without ceding any space to other opposition parties, and throwing a jibe that 'Modi vs Rahul' is a failed experiment, TMC is just appending a grey façade into the opposition unity, deviating from their own pitch of strong united opposition.

Modi vs Nitish: The somewhat casual, yet surreptitious switching of alliance partners in Bihar is a glaring example of the prevailing ambiguous political scenario. Pre-poll agreements and alliances don't have any sanctity in the current opportunistic and venal political discourse. JD-U's swing back to Mahagatbandhan has uplifted the mood within the opposition camp and also made Nitish aspire for the 2024 PM race. Surely to get an overwhelming push from RJD, so that the CM profile goes to them, JD-U's otherwise dwindling condition in the last Assembly elections, Nitish's long-term association with the NDA and his frequent vacillations might go against him during consensus. So, the 'Modi vs Nitish' trail will continue till he keeps his flock together and also till Tejashwi Yadav pursue restraint in his otherwise egotistic agenda.

Modi vs Kejriwal: Euphoric after winning the Punjab Assembly elections, the only party other than BJP and Congress to rule two states and making small but significant forays into a few other states, AAP has upped their ante in declaring a 'Modi vs Kejriwal' contest in 2024. Working hard to expand their footprint in other states, their credence also depends on their performance in upcoming state elections, where interestingly success will be mostly measured by their ability to deflate the Congress votes. This might again enhance the friction within the opposition camp. But, despite all, the Kejriwal factor is expected to be the most colourful facet within the opposition. Assam CM Himanta's quip 'Badhiya hai' (it will be fine) on Kejriwal's ambition for 2024 has already spiced up the content.

The varying individualistic convenient approach of the regional parties is weakening the opposition unity attempt. Lacking intensity, their actions during the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections have exposed the chink in their unity. Hereafter, after every state election outcome, a shift in alliances, central agencies digging up more scams, and uncertain upheavals, the overall political ecosystem will surely remain splashy with many new aspirants emerging. PM Modi's clarion call to defeat corruption, nepotism and dynastic politics will definitely be a significant factor and become anathema for some emerging aspirants. The ever-changing contours of opposition unity up to 2024 would be flickering and take many churns, considering the rapid alterations in political alliances and conveniences. Till that time, one can only keep guessing, bear the slugfest, and assess the many alternatives to find out 'who' stands out as 'The face in the crowd'!