Presidential election and opposition's pledge & qualms

Monoj Kumar Hazarika

(mkhazarika11@gmail.com)

Two weeks back the opposition parties presented an advantageous cohesion while unanimously selecting Yashwant Sinha as their common presidential candidate. It was evident when he was flanked by senior leaders from all major opposition parties - Congress, NCP, TMC, SP, TRS, CPM, and NC along with leaders from other regional parties when he filed his nomination papers. Their initial resolve and all-out support to back him indicated a close contest. But after BJP announced Draupadi Murmu as NDA's presidential candidate, the challenge scenario seems to be altering every passing day. With hardly a week left for the presidential polls on the 18th of July, the opposition seems to be in total disarray.

This exposes the opposition's intent of their pledge and the extent of qualms.

TMC in a quandary: TMC displayed their intent to pledge for strong united opposition by convening the meeting to select a consensus candidate. When Sharad Pawar, Gopalkrishna Gandhi and Farooq Abdullah refused to contest, they proposed their own party's candidate Yashwant Sinha. A former Janata Party and BJP member and Cabinet minister in both Chandra Shekhar and Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government, Sinha later left BJP in 2018 after citing some 'party's condition' and trenchant criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Joining TMC in 2021, he was made the TMC vice president. Sinha's presidential candidature had created excitement and fervour within the opposition camp. However, Mamata Banerjee's comment later that Draupadi Murmu could've been an acceptable consensus candidate had BJP declared her name before, TMC's pledge seem to dilute with qualms when they realised the electoral backlash they might face among the tribal community of West Bengal who constitutes about 7-8% of the electorate.

Shiv Sena split: The Shiv Sena split is one significant event in the run-up to the presidential election, and more so to the opposition unity. Strongest adherent to the NCP and the Congress after forming the un-natural post-poll Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA), Uddhav Thackeray and his select coterie demonstrated utmost intent to form a strong anti-BJP front. They hosted several meetings with other regional party leaders but then fell flat after their own rebelled against their leadership. Uddhav's ever-increasing proximity and obedience to the NCP and the Congress allegedly compromising the party's core ideology and snubbing his own MLA's concerns led to the rebellion and split. Now, left with a handful of MLAs and the majority of their MPs petition to support Draupadi Murmu, beleaguered Uddhav doesn't have any option but to cave into their demand. NCP and Congress displayed solidarity towards Uddhav till a few days back but now have openly started criticising him. MVA in the doldrums, Congress and NCP have started expressing their belated indignant displeasure for renaming Aurangabad as Sambhajinagar and Osmanabad as Dharashiv, which wasn't in their common minimum programme. The Sena split has rippled to an MVA spilt as well!

JMM's dilemma: The Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), which is in coalition with Congress in Jharkhand was one of the signatories in pitching Yashwant Sinha as the joint opposition candidate for the President's post, is now in an acute dilemma. JMM, which wears the image of being a 'for-tribal' party finds it difficult to overlook a tribal for the office of the supreme post. Also Hemant's father Sibhu Soren is known to have a 'personal connect' and good relationship with Draupadi Murmu as she served as Governor of Jharkhand. Therefore, their pledge for Sinha might shift towards Murmu given her ethnicity and rapport with the Soren family!

Fissures in UP opposition alliance: Akhilesh Yadav, chief of the Samajwadi Party (SP) was one among those opposition leaders who accompanied Sinha while submitting his nomination. But, the recent resentment within their alliance partners notably the SBSP president Om Prakash Rajbhar and Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) chief Shivpal Singh Yadav who has decided to support Draupadi Murmu is a major setback for Akhilesh. It weakens the opposition's unity as well as his credibility and control over the opposition rallies in UP.

Support from other non-NDA parties: Prominent non-NDA parties like BJD of Orissa, YSRCP of Andhra, BSP of UP, SAD of Punjab and many small regional parties unequivocal support to Draupadi Murmu makes the contest almost one-sided in her favour. However, the Aam Admi Party's (AAP) position is not clear till now. Keeping the cards close to their heart, they might disclose them only on election day.

Congress' casualness: Downcast and preoccupied mostly with organising street protests in support of their leadership in wake of them being questioned by the enforcement directorate (ED) and constantly checking on their members from drifting away, they adopted a casual approach towards this presidential election. Without any fuss, they simply acknowledged and accepted the other opposition's proposal. Rahul Gandhi flying out of the country just before the presidential election and amidst ongoing turmoil within their camp in Goa is testimony to his nonchalant demeanour!

At this point, Draupadi Murmu seems to be on strong ground and on course to be the first tribal woman to become the 15th President of India, unless some astonishing magic changes the course! However, the political swings in the last two weeks are showing chink in the opposition camp. Cramped in ambiguity and scruples, opposition parties seem to be in clutter! With support dwindling, Yashwant Sinha has been left to fend for himself!