Rajapaksa's election: Will he take sides?

Udayan Hazarika

(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)

Percy Mahendra Rajapaksa's return to power with complete confidence of the Buddhist majority voters is a signal to India that it needs to sail in the Indian Ocean issues with carefully calculated steps. Of late, China's aggressive persuasion of its Sri Lankan Policy has been under careful observation in the ocean countries including India. Prime Minister's elder brother Gotabaye Rajapakse who was a senior defence official at the time of war with LTTE (2008-09) has been maintaining a good relation with China since those days -who along with Chinese help played the crucial role in the war against the LTTEs which finally came to an end in May 2009. There has been strong allegation against government for violation of human rights in the war in which thousands of Tamils were killed or found missing. Although, the allegation has been negated by the Government repeatedly, it still stands. Stories abound taking into account of his role as Terminator of Tamils in the last offensive against the Tamils.

Now that the mandate in favour of the Prime Minister is so strong (in a House of 225, he secured 145 seats) nothing appears to be in sight that could hinder the proposed amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution making President more powerful than the Parliament, except that of the Prime Minister himself. President Goatbaya Rajapkse has already been projecting himself as the only leader, who could save the country from the attack of Islamic States (IS). The win of the Prime Minister is clearly rested on the consolidated Buddhist votes which constitute more than 70 per cent of the total population of the country. The signal therefore is clear that the rights of the Tamils and Muslim minorities are at stake. This win thus can be visualised to take the country to further polarisation -pushing the Tamils further away from the mainstream. The Tamils comprise of 18 per cent (both Indian and Sri Lankan Tamils) of the total population of the country. There are hints that the proposed amendment of the Constitution would take away certain rights of the minorities. Despite the fact that Mahindra Rajapkse was ousted from his Presidential chair in the year 2016, on the charges of nepotism and corruption, his winning this election sends a strong message that empowering minorities is not the preferred agenda of the majority voters. Already instances amounting to such curtailment of rights of Tamils in the offing. Only a few months back, in the Independence Day celebration functions, (February 4) government stopped singing the Tamil version of the national anthem which is usually sung in two languages -Sinhalese and Tamil since days of former President Maithripala Siridena. Apart from being a customary practice, it is also a Constitutional mandate. This is another event to be noted which is clearly showing that wind is blowing against the minority rights. Although the President has chanted the mantra of equality and development for all in his maiden Independence Day speech, it will be difficult proposition for his brother Prime Minister to translate it into reality. In fact, it would be a tough task for the new Prime minister to maintain peace and unity among the diverse groups and at the same time show his generosity of equality for all.

India's role during the later part of the armed conflict with the LTTE (2008-09) was careful and diplomatic. India on one hand supported the Government of its rights to end the armed conflict and at the same time also reiterated its concern about the growing hostilities among the common people and LTTE and the need for sorting out the issue on reconciliatory basis. Undoubtedly, India had to restrain itself from taking part in the conflict as it also had to address the domestic politics at home. As against this, China took advantage of the Mahinda Rajapksa's call and took active part by supplying arms to the Government of Sri Lanka during 2008-09. China not only provided sophisticated weapons, it also supplied six F-7 fighter jets worth millions of dollars to the Sri Lankan defence force. Beijing remained closure to Colombo since those days and even played the role of protector when US introduced a resolution in the UN backed by West European Countries and India accusing Rajapkse Government of clear violation human rights in the war against LTTE. China's role in the war in fact was determining in character and the war ended in 2009 with China becoming well within its diplomatic aspiration to establishing strategic relationship with Sri Lanka and thereby gain strategic access to the Indian Ocean.

Last year China had come up with a gift to Sri Lankan Navy - a modern warship frigate well equipped with duel type 79 100 mm cannons and two 76A dual 37 mm anti aircraft guns on its back. There is also a helipad and hanger for operating small and medium sized helicopters. The frigate was gifted reportedly for using in patrolling duties related piracy and environment protection. This is not the only defense activities of China towards Sri Lanka - the Chinese PLA Navy had also imparted professional training to the Sri Lankan Navy officers at Shanghai.

This is how China is making strategic inroads to the political affairs of the island country and gaining confidence gradually. In the commercial front, at the beginning of this century China was a mere seller for Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka's import and export as a percentage to its GDP was gradually declining since the year 2000 and in the year 2005 when its import to GDP ratio was 36 percent, Chinese volume of import to the GDP ratio of Sri Lanka was only to the tune of 2.6 per cent and that of India was 5.8 per cent. However, in the year 2017, when Sri Lanka's import as a percentage of GDP declined to 23.8 per cent, Chinese participation to that ratio has increased significantly to 04.8 per cent while India's participation rate declined significantly to 4.9 per cent. It is noteworthy that Sri Lanka and India had signed bilateral trade agreement namely India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISFTA) on 28th December 1998 which came into force on 1st March 2000. As per recent available statistics, although there is a trade gap against the Sri Lanka, the total trade between the both the countries were to the tune of US$ 6.2 billion in 2018-19, out of which India's exports to Sri Lanka were US$ 4.7billion and imports were US$ 1.5 billion. The volume of trade declined in 2019 to USD 4.19 billion as in November 2019, of which India's export to Sri Lanka was to the tune of USD 3.49 billion while that of Sri Lanka was to the tune of USD 0.70 billion.

Today, China can be seen in the light of a prominent business partner and largest loan provider of Sri Lanka. Chinese infrastructure funding for construction of the port in Hambantota has been looked upon as a China's aggressive persuasion of its expansionist agenda in the Indian Ocean. Today, it is no denying the fact that China happens to be the biggest source of FDI in Sri Lanka apart from financing some infrastructure projects like Colombo Port terminal. As per an estimates China has invested around USD 15 billion between 2005 and 2017 in Sri Lanka. But the fact is that China's economic inroad was not the main issue in the Sino-Sri Lankan relation – the main issue is the strategic relation. The island country is already in the Chinese debt trap which forced Colombo to leasing out the port in Hambantota in favour of China for 99 years. Thus, China has already acquired its right of permanent presence in the island nation.

It is true that India is still maintaining its cordial relations with Sri Lanka and has not been denying any assistance that Sri Lanka when it is in need. But the fact remains that India's presence in the Island Nation is gradually getting blurred. Recently after the Easter Sunday terror attack in which more than 269 peoples were killed on 21st April, Sri Lanka sought assistance from China to deal with such terror attack and the response was quick from China. There are scopes to believe that Sri Lanka is more comfortable with China when it comes to defense purchases. Rajapkse's win has raised many questions in the bilateral relations front and the main question asked is - whether he will choose a side between India and China? Going by the international response to the recent Indo-China standoff at Ladakh, it is not likely that Sri Lanka will openly come out to show off its internal understanding with China to the world. Till that time India need to show its diplomatic maturity towards its neighbourhoods.