Rethinking strategies to contain COVID

Assam has tweaked its containment strategy and put seven districts under complete lockdown, but it raises questions over the effectiveness of partial lockdown to break transmission of COVID-19 virus in the State. Under the new SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) issued by the government, there will be complete ban on the movement of all public and private transport, barring movement of goods, in these districts under total containment. Suspension of inter-district passenger transport services and movement of people have been also extended for another week. Disruptions in normal activities on account of such containment strategy for long period has put the pandemic resilience of the State's economy to test. Inter-district transport services and movement of people have remained suspended for nearly a month and half since May 21; while in 16 districts, the curfew hours continue will be in force from 2 pm till 5 am. The containment strategy is a clear reflection of the precarious situation of high active caseloads and positivity rates which has the potential to overwhelm the health systems, if not checked. Earlier, the State government had chosen to adopt the strategy of partial lockdowns; and also experimented with the strategy of increasing or decreasing the curfew hours at the district level to avoid imposing complete lockdown. The rationale behind this strategy is to allow minimum economic activities to minimise the loss of livelihood that was experienced due to a complete halt in the economic activities on account of the complete lockdown in the first wave. Cost benefit analysis of disruption in economic activities due to the extended partial lockdowns as compared to the total lockdown for shorter duration vis-à-vis the effectiveness of either the containment strategies in flattening the pandemic curve will shed some light on the government approach.

The Tourism industry has been hit hard in the second wave due to the long-drawn disruption when it had just started bouncing back after the setbacks in the first wave of the pandemic during the national lockdown. thE Cascading impact is seen in associated sectors like hospitality, transport services, tour operators, home stays, travel agencies as financial losses are mounting leading to joblessness and loss of incomes in the entire value chain. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection from tourism and associated sectors in the state are poised to see more erosion unless the pandemic situation improves significantly before the next tourism season resumes on full scale in winter. The GST collection in the country fell below Rs 1 trillion mark in June for the first time in eight months which is reflective of the pandemic impact on business due to lockdown or partial lockdowns in various States in May. In the districts under partial lockdown, intra-district transport has been allowed with 50 per cent seating capacity to prevent the spread of infection. The spiralling prices of petrol and diesel coupled with reduced business hours with windows open till 1 pm have made operating public transport unsustainable for many. Thousands of app-based driver owners in the State are unable to pay their EMIs of car loans, buy daily ration due to loss of income. Therefore, providing financial relief to such first-generation entrepreneurs in travel and tourism sectors need to be factored in containment strategy as shock absorbers. For residents of Guwahati, the Health & Family Welfare Department has sounded the alarm bell that fresh rise in infection after a significant decline in June has been recorded and the spread of infection may lead to the deterioration in the situation if the COVID protocols are not followed strictly. Being the economic hub of entire Northeast region of the country, a spike in COVID-19 cases in Guwahati will affect economic activities in the entire region. Intensifying the surveillance against COVID-19 down to the village level and wards and localities in urban areas requires aggressive testing and enforcement of COVID-appropriate behaviours can make the containment strategy really effective. Enforcing the micro-containment zone strategy has been the standard response whenever rise of infection is reported in any area. However, due to the non-observance of COVID-appropriate behaviour such containment zones and adjacent areas have remained vulnerable to the rise in infection which defeats the purpose of containment zones. Organising COVID-19 testing camps even in areas with nil cases for quick and early detection of asymptomatic cases will make the current containment strategy more effective. Transparency on the availability of COVID-19 vaccines and vaccination schedules is critical to preventing the vaccination centres becoming hotspots of infection. Reducing active caseload in vital to state unlocking at a faster pace. Experimenting with complete or partial containment depending on rise in number of active cases and positivity rates may prove costly for the state economy in the long run. A comprehensive review of the current containment strategy and shifting to a regime of aggressive testing and contact tracing across the State, irrespective of prevalence or reporting of infection, can be also explored by the Health Department.