Slicing the power pie

It is now almost certain that Assam is poised to witness three-cornered contests in the Assembly polls which are less than three months away. This was expected given the socio-political matrix that has evolved around the rules of the game set by political regimes in the State. Of these three forces, one will be led by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the other by the Opposition Congress and the third force will be led by the two new regional parties -- the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal. However, it will take some more time for the electoral scenario to crystalise. The parties have not firmed up their positions if the pre-poll tie-up should lead to reaching electoral alliance with common minimum programme and seat sharing or merely seat sharing. The ruling BJP's worry is lessened as the Opposition votes are going to be split into two distinct camps. However, the Congress has not stopped appealing for a grand alliance of all anti-BJP forces even after the two new regional parties have ruled it out. This should keep the ruling coalition wary of the Opposition parties including the two new regional parties reaching a tacit understanding as all the Opposition parties have singled out the BJP as their common political enemy. The Congress has kept the parleys on the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the Left parties and another regional party -- the Anchalik Gana Morcha; but is yet to firm up the understanding. It will not be surprising if the Congress decides to reach a tacit understanding with the AIUDF instead of a formal tie up to weaken the BJP campaign against the Congress and AIUDF being in a single camp. The Congress is divided on its strategy as some leaders are still wary of an adverse impact of a direct pre-poll tie up with the AIUDF in seats with voters belonging to the Assamese and other indigenous communities as majority. The AJP has ruled out any alliance with the Congress and other national parties and with any party having electoral understanding with the AIUDF while Raijor Dal has also ruled out tie up with any party having electoral alliance with BJP or the AIUDF. Political realignment is still not complete. Region-specific or seat-wise tacit understanding among parties in different opposition camps is a possibility that cannot be ruled out. This will keep the poll strategists and spin doctors to work overtime and return to the drawing table to articulate the campaign strategies and keep reviewing the winnability status in each constituency.

The ruling BJP has given all indications of ending its tie up with the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) after finding its new partner and ruling coalition partner in Bodoland Territorial Region – the United People's Party, Liberal (UPPL). The BPF is yet to take a call on quitting the ruling coalition and there is no indication of the party officially calling it off before the announcement of the election dates and imposition of Model Code of Conduct (MCC). The BPF Ministers continuing in the government is a clever tactic of denying the UPPL the political space of exercising influence even after change of guard at the Bodoland Territorial Council. Once the MCC comes into force, the BTC government like the State government will be barred from making announcement or promise any new scheme or project. Till that day, the three BPF ministers will continue to reach out to voters in BTR areas in the capacity as Ministers. The full Election Commission arriving in the State to meet political parties and take stock of preparations for the polls indicate that the schedules of the State Assembly polls will be announced anytime soon.The BPF has also kept its cards close to its chest and has kept all poll strategists in the three camps guessing. The two new regional parties are keen to forge pre-poll alliance with the BPF. In the recent BTC polls, the BPF went all alone and emerged as the single largest party. However, the setback suffered by the BPF in Udalguri and Baksa districts may push it to explore new allies in the two districts to counter the alliance of BJP-UPPL-Gana Surakha Party in 12 Assembly seats from the BTR areas. The power equation in BTC will compel the UPPL to concede more seats to the BJP and also one or two seats to the GSP. Contrasted to this, the BPF will have more liberty to contest in majority of the seats even if it decides to forge electoral alliance with any of the two Opposition camps. The delay in finalisation of the poll tie up is certainly not in the interest of the electors. For, it only delays the publication of the election manifestos by the parties. The manifestos are more important for the voters to decide their mandate than how the parties are going to share the power pie among themselves.