Testing ground

Assam Cabinet's request to the State Election Commission (SEC) to complete the process of election to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) by December 15 has set the ball rolling for election of a new set of rulers for territorial council. The State Cabinet has also recommended continuation of the Governor's Rule in Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) till the BTC elections are held. The BTC polls will be a testing ground for 2021 Assembly poll strategies of the ruling and opposition parties. It will also decide the future course of Bodo identity politics.

The BTR areas administered by the BTC covers 12 of the total 126 Assembly constituencies and partially includes areas under four more Assembly constituencies. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has decided to go it alone in BTC polls and has also indicated dumping its coalition partner Bodoland People's Front (BPF) in the Assembly polls. Several BPF leaders resigning and joining the BJP has led to widening of the gap between the two coalition partners. They still have not parted ways in the BJP-led coalition government though. In 2016 Assembly polls, the BPF won all the 12 seats in BTR. The BJP poll strategists are keen to find out as to which Bodo political party – BPF and the United People's Party, Liberal has more influence among the Bodos post signing of the BTR accord.

The state cabinet on October 7 decided to make Bodo the associate official language for the entire state of Assam and set up Bodo Kachari Autonomous Welfare Council outside the areas under the Sixth Schedule councils. Both the decisions formed part of the commitments by the Central and the State governments in new Bodo accord. Entire leadership of the United Bodo People Organisation (UBPO), a signatory of the third Bodo accord which have influence among Bodos outside the BTR areas, joined the BJP two days later. Other signatories of the accord include the influential All Bodo Students' Union and four factions of the now-disbanded National Democratic Front of Boroland. The BJP hopes that the UBPO leaders and workers joining the party would help reduce its dependence on the BPF outside BTR too. In 2016 Assembly polls, the BPF chief Hagrama Mahillary campaigned extensively for the BJP-led alliance in Bodo-inhabited areas outside the BTR. The performance of the BPF in BTC polls will, therefore, also indicate if Mahillary will continue to be the cynosure of Bodos outside the BTR. The BPF won BTC polls for three consecutive terms during which it had coalition with the Congress for eight years from 2006 till 2014 and with the BJP from 2016 till now.

The BTC poll strategies and outcomes are expected to shape new political equations for 2021 Assembly polls. When the previous BTC polls were held in 2015, the BJP was in opposition in the State Assembly and had only five legislators but the very next year the party won 60 seats to form the first BJP-led government in Assam. For the opposition Congress, the demography of the BTR makes the BTC polls ideal to test the waters on its idea of grand alliance of all non-BJP coalition parties. It has already reached understanding with the All India United Democratic Front, which has significant stakes in BTR. The Congress has also reached out to the Left parties and BTC polls will indicate if the proposed grand alliance will take shape as a pre-poll alliance in the state. All eyes are also on the two new regional parties – Assam Jatiya Parishad and the Raijor Dal if they are going to be serious players or spoilsport in BTC polls. High multiparty stakes in the council polls makes the task for the SEC of ensuring a free and fair poll a challenging task. Healthy democracy requires maximum and vibrant participation of the citizens in the elections. The Commission also must live up to the expectations of the electors in BTC to make all arrangements needed to make the polling booth safe from COVID-19 infections.

The broad guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India (ECI) for conducting polls during the pandemic will be useful for the SEC to make appropriate arrangements for BTC polls to ensure that the election process does not allow the falling pandemic curve in the state to rise. The SEC has to keep in the mind the warning sounded by health experts of likelihood of COVID-19 infections becoming worse during winter. The ECI too will be keenly watching the effectiveness of its guidelines in the backdrop of prevailing pandemic situation in the state to decide if any additional arrangements will be required to be undertaken for 2021 Assembly polls. On their part, the electors in the BTC have the biggest responsibility of electing those representatives who will be committed to provide corruption-free and efficient governance in the BTR.

Also watch: BPF confident of big win in BTC polls in December

Also read: Assam: CM chairs Cabinet meeting; Cabinet requests for BTC polls by Dec 15