The winnability factor

Winnability of a candidate is the foremost priority of political party which seeks to form government in a State or at the Centre. This often disheartens ticket aspirants in the party who fail to make it to the list of official candidates and triggers protests by followers of the aspirants. Deciding lists by the parties becomes more difficult when they forge pre-poll alliances as transfer of votes becomes a crucial factor for deciding winnability of the common candidates of the alliance. Revolt over seat-sharing deal between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and also selection of candidates is manifestation of such political realities. The parties engaged professional agencies to conduct surveys on winnability of the sitting legislators as well as of all rival parties. Besides, they also conduct internal surveys and take feedbacks of party units and observers to decide the final list of candidates. The BJP and its allies -- the AGP and the United People's Party, Liberal (UPPL) -- have reached the seat-sharing deal after hectic parleys. The BJP will contest in 92 seats, the AGP in 26 and the UPPL in eight seats. In 2016, the BJP won 60 seats, the AGP won14 while the UPPL -- which was not part of the alliance then -- did not win any seat. The UPPL now shares power with the BJP in the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) after wresting power from the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) which has severed ties with the BJP and joined the Congress Mahajoot. The process of BPF and the BJP parting ways began from the BTC polls. The BPF won all the 12 seats from the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) in the last Assembly elections and joined the first BJP-led government. However, the new changes in political equations will make the fight for these seats an interesting electoral battle to watch. The two Bodo political parties in opposite camps are now looking at the prospect of becoming kingmakers in the event of a verdict throwing up a hung House. The AGP is poised for another split as the regional party conceded to the BJP the Barhampur seat represented by the founder president of the party and twice Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta. Ironically, it was Mahanta who had forged the electoral alliance of AGP with the BJP in 2001; but the alliance did not work, and the Congress returned to power and ruled the State for three consecutive terms. Mahanta's leadership -- of the six-year-long vigorous anti-foreigners' agitation culminating in the signing of the historic Assam Accord -- has returned to the centrestage of electoral battle this time. He floated the AGP (Pragatisheel) in 2005 after being expelled by the regional party and later merged it with AGP in 2008. Mahanta won his seat for seven consecutive elections since 1985 when he led the first AGP government. Revival of the AGP (Pragatisheel) after the AGP left his seat for BJP appears to be imminent. The winnability factor led the ruling party to field its State president, Ranjit Kumar Dass, in Patacharkuchi Constituency. It was won by Pabindra Deka of the AGP in 2016 but subsequently left vacant after the sitting legislator quit the party to join the new regional party Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). Dass had won from the Sarbhog constituency in the past elections; and this gives an indication that emergence of the Congress-led Mahajoot has given rise to new possibilities in different constituencies which has prompted the BJP to seek a safer seat for the State president. It now remains to be seen if the protest against the candidature of Dass in Patacharkuchi by section of workers of both his own party as well as alliance partner AGP as well as in several other constituencies die down or will precipitate. The challenge for the leadership of both the BJP and the AGP will be to win over the support of those disgruntled party workers and prevent rebellion that may adversely impact the winnability of the official nominee. Rebel candidates wining is not a rarity and this factor keeps reminding the parties that assessment about winnability may sometimes go wrong and also the screening committees may sometimes fail to anticipate the scale and intensity of rebellion which often ends up benefitting the rival parties and candidates.

The Congress has also reached seat-sharing agreements with other constituents of Mahajoot but deciding its own list of candidates has become more challenging and there are signs of rebellion in the Opposition camp. What matters the most for the electors is, however, the installation of a pro-people and a stable government and the election of an honest representative committed to work for the all-round development of the Constituency, which in turn contributes to development and progress of the State. Parties replacing sitting legislators with new faces is often seen as a commentary on their performance. People give their final say only by casting votes. The electoral politics is game of numbers and the winnability factor will continue to be the election potboiler till the process is over.