The worst is yet to come

Udayan Hazarika

(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)

There shall be no let-up to the growing panic of the working classes of losing their jobs due to the sharply rising infection of the virus. There is fear everywhere that it will very soon disrupt the recently picked up business environment. There are news pouring in from all-around the globe about the millions of employees that have been laid off by the big business houses and the process is still going on. Only recently Indigo Airlines has announced about their decision to lay off 2,500 employees presently working in both India and abroad. The company has incurred a net loss to the tune of Rs 2,844 crore during the June quarter. Similarly, Spice jet's net loss for the year 2020 was Rs 935 crore. Maruti for the first time after 2003 has incurred a loss of Rs 240 crore in April quarter. All these losses will inevitably be reflected in the cut in employee costs leading to severance of more employees from the payroll. So the worst is yet to come. In India, we have already seen the plight of the migrant labourers during lockdown-2 when lakhs of them had come out on the roads and highways in a bid to reach their home. Desperate to reach home, these labourers have impulsively got up on the train to reach their own States leaving their jobs behind. The most unfortunate is the fact that their return to their home and the reopening of the business began at the same point of time and as a result they lost their opportunity to rejoin their job. This mismatch has occurred all over the country and the economy has to bear the brunt of this mismatch for long time to come. This has completely shattered the service sector — the highest contributor to the GDP and there is doubt about its returning to normalcy soon.

Now that the migrants workers are returning to their place of work, most of their old employers are not ready to accept them on the pretext that already the vacant places have been filled up with fresh workers. Some employers have laid down new conditions while some others have proposed lower wage rates. Evidently, fear prevailed upon both the sides. Employers' fear is about continuing uncertainties of business situation due to the growing COVID-19 cases in every State. A possible re-imposition of lockdown phase-2 was a natural expectation and it happened finally. Most of the State capitals have resorted to second phase of lockdown recently ranging from two to three weeks. The workers' fear was of not getting their earlier jobs – and in that case it is a near impossible situation of getting another job. The situation was such that employers were trying to buy time while the labourers became restless to get a quick decision. To ease the situation, the Delhi Government has recently launched a portal where people looking for jobs can apply under 32 various categories ranging from web designer to housekeeping, while employers looking to hire hands can also enlist themselves. It has been reported that within 12 hours of its opening, as many as 50,000 job seekers have registered their names in the portal. Such is the situation of job seekers in Delhi, CM Kejriwal has stated.

Reports received from many States confirm that the migrant labourers and workers who left for their home State have returned to join their jobs. An express news service reported that as many as 26 lakh migrant workers have returned to Maharashtra. Most of these migrant labourers were earlier engaged in works like assistants in back office, data entry operators, cooks, drivers, network engineers interior designers, construction labourers, electricians, plumbers mechanics, etc. A Gujarat report says that more than 20 lakh migrant workers have returned to various industrial towns and industries have started.

In Assam lakhs of such migrant workers have come back and as per statement of the Health Minister, their numbers will be 4.2 lakhs. All of them have become jobless now. There were assurances from the State Government about providing jobs to all of them under MNREGA. But no concrete step appears to have been taken to register all those who are willing to work under MNREGA. As per the recent data as on July 27, the State has so far achieved only 33 per cent of its set targets of MNREGA while majority of the States have already covered more than 70 per cent of the current year's target and they are now asking the Centre for more funds. The States like Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odhissa, Rajsathan, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have already crossed 80 per cent marks in the middle of the July itself. The lowest performing State is the Nagaland (06.67%) followed by Assam. The State that followed Assam is Jharkhand also crossed 50 per cent marks. There are also districts which have already surpassed this year's target namely Bhavnagar of Gujarat, Madchal of Telangana, Bulandchahr of UP.

The case of Assam in terms of migrant labourers is somewhat different from other States. Majority of its labourers here are engaged in household industries (both MSME/SSI) and factories and their numbers will be about 5.5 lakh of which almost 3.0 lakh are daily wage based labourers. They are mainly local employees. Others engaged in the service sector are either migrants or immigrants origin. Those who are migrants, most of them have gone back to their own States and there are grim chances of their coming back as the wage rate here is lower than other places. Those who are immigrant origin but residing in the State, most of them have subsidiary occupations at villages where they cultivate either their own land or government lands. They are not affected badly due to the COVID-19 situation. The most affected of the service sector are the ones who are self-employed and casual workers. Self-employed are the worst sufferers – as they are mostly petty businessmen and service providers in the areas of carpentry, masonry, plumbing, electricity mechanic, etc. On the other hand, the casual workers are mainly engaged in construction works, trading, either in small business houses (shops) or malls and other commercial establishments, restaurants, hotels clubs, cinema halls, etc. Their numbers will be more than 1.5 lakh and most of them have already lost their jobs and now they are in the job seekers list with pathetic economic conditions. As they are mainly the workers in informal sector, they lack security of their jobs and devoid of any social security coverage.

In the post COVID lockdown situation, therefore somewhere around 3.0 lakh of new unemployed will be added to the current work, force not to speak of those who will naturally come to the fold by attaining the working age of 15 plus. The strength of unemployed in the State at present is estimated at 19 lakhs and by the year-end it will touch the level of 22 lakhs. Unfortunately, government is still not ready to face such a huge volume of unemployed force and that too at a time when general election is round the corner. Giving government jobs to some thousands of unemployed youths will not in any way resolve this critical issue. Government must make arrangements for lakhs of such unemployed. The Government of India has recently announced soft loans to the MSMEs; this is a big chance and the State must not leave any stone unturned to make this endeavour a big success. Government should immediately constitute a task force to see that every penny of it is spent effectively. P&RD Sector should be toned up to reach the target set for the MNREGA as quickly as possible so that additional amount can be claimed. It needs to be borne in mind that MNREGA is not a permanent solution to the problem. The Government should make early effort to reduce dependency on the Central Government in this area.