Why Dold Trump is unlikely to win the US presidential poll
By Saeed qvi
Even if Dold Trump goes on to win the Republican nomition despite a “dump Trump” campaign within his own party reportedly getting stronger, the chances of the billioire businessman winning the presidential election may be slim as researchers have found that divided political parties rarely win the race for the White House.
The study, which examined tiol party division in past presidential elections, found that both tiol party division and divisive state primaries have significant influence on general election outcomes.
“History shows that when one party is divided and the other party is united, the divided party almost always loses the presidential election,” said one of the researchers Paul-Henri Gurian, associate professor of political science at the University of Georgia in the US.
“Consider, for example, the elections from 1964 through 1984; in each case the divided party lost,” Gurian explained.
The study, published in the jourl Political Behavior, measured party division during the primaries and indicated how much the more divided party loses in the general election.
The study found that divisive state primaries can lead to a one to two percent decrease in general elections votes in that state.
For example, Hillary Clinton received 71 percent of the Democratic vote in the Georgia primary, while Dold Trump received 39 percent of the Republican vote.
According to the historical model, a Republican-nomited Trump would lose almost one percent of the Georgia vote in the general election because of the divided state primary.
tiol party division has an even greater and more widespread impact on the tiol results, often leading to decreases of more than three percent tionwide, the study said.
Looking again at the current presidential election cycle, Trump had received 39.5 percent of the total tiol Republican primary vote as of March 16, while Clinton had received 58.6 percent of the Democratic vote.
If these proportions hold for the remainder of the nomition campaign (and if these two candidates win the nomitions), then Trump would lose 4.5 percent of the vote in the general election, compared to what he would have received if the tiol Republican Party was not divided.
“In close elections, such as 2000, 2004 and 2012, four to five percent could change the outcome in terms of which party wins the presidency,” Gurian said.
(Indo Asian News Service )