2025: A year of challenges for the Modi government

Dr. Pranjit Saikia

(dr.pranjit1981@gmail.com)

The dawn of the New Year not only heralds the potential for transformative shifts within the political and administrative apparatus of India, but simultaneously forecasts the emergence of multifaceted and intricate challenges. The previous year marked a significant milestone with Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a rare and historic third consecutive term in office. This accomplishment was enabled through a meticulous orchestration of political alliances, despite the central government’s failure to procure a clear parliamentary majority. While this triumph secured his leadership, it also spotlighted the formidable opposition that continues to hold substantial sway within the legislative chambers, impeding the government’s legislative agenda both within the Parliament and in the public sphere. This opposition, led by the INDIA alliance, remains resolute in challenging the Modi administration on various fronts, setting the stage for a year fraught with political intrigue and contention. The confluence of these developments promises to influence the political landscape and the nation’s socio-economic trajectory throughout 2025 and beyond.

A central focal point of this year’s legislative agenda is Prime Minister Modi’s Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024. Introduced in the summer session of Parliament, the bill seeks to implement sweeping reforms in the governance structures of Waqf Boards across the country. Despite the central government’s unyielding push to pass the legislation, the opposition, particularly the INDIA alliance, engineered a strategic delay by compelling the government to refer the bill to a joint parliamentary committee for further examination. This manoeuvre effectively deferred any substantial progress on the bill, despite efforts during the winter session to expedite its passage. The opposition, in a calculated move, demanded an extension of the committee’s deliberation period, ensuring that the legislative impasse persisted. With the budget session approaching, the government is expected to marshal its political capital and pursue the bill’s passage aggressively. The forthcoming session will thus serve as a critical test for the government’s ability to overcome opposition tactics and navigate the intricacies of the legislative process.

In a similar vein, the government has introduced the ‘One Nation, One Election’ Bill, a proposal that has quickly become a subject of intense political debate. The bill, which aims to overhaul the nation’s electoral framework, was tabled in the Lok Sabha during the winter session, only to be referred to a joint parliamentary committee for further scrutiny. This proposed reform promises to reshape the political landscape by synchronising the timing of state and national elections. However, the passage of such a significant bill would require not only constitutional amendments but also the forging of a broad-based political consensus—a daunting challenge, particularly in the absence of opposition support. Key constitutional amendments would need to be made in Articles 83, 85, 172, 174, and 356, necessitating a supermajority in both Houses of Parliament as well as ratification from at least half of India’s states. The opposition, led by the INDIA alliance, has voiced vehement opposition, arguing that the bill represents a direct challenge to India’s federal structure and would centralise power at the expense of regional autonomy. The opposition’s resistance, coupled with the challenges of obtaining the requisite political consensus, makes the passage of this bill an extraordinarily complex undertaking.

Parallel to these legislative initiatives, electoral contests in Delhi and Bihar will play a pivotal role in shaping the political dynamics of the year. The Delhi Assembly elections, set to take place in the early months of the year, have assumed significant political importance, particularly for Prime Minister Modi. Despite his ten-year tenure at the helm of the central government, Modi’s inability to secure a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi has been regarded as a notable political shortcoming. Consequently, the upcoming elections are perceived as a prestige battle for Modi, whose political capital will be greatly affected by the outcome. Political parties in Delhi have already begun to prepare, with candidate lists unveiled and campaigns intensifying. Modi’s pursuit of victory in Delhi is expected to involve every possible strategic manoeuvre to address this perceived gap in his leadership narrative.

Following the Delhi elections, the focus will shift to the Bihar Assembly elections, a contest of crucial significance for the BJP. The 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, though yielding a plurality of seats for the BJP, saw the party cede the Chief Ministerial position to its ally, Janata Dal (United), under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. However, in a dramatic and politically opportunistic move, Nitish Kumar orchestrated the collapse of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Bihar, subsequently allying with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress. This sudden political shift was widely perceived as a betrayal by the BJP. Although Kumar has since rejoined the NDA, the BJP remains cautious regarding his political trustworthiness, particularly given his past record of shifting alliances. In the context of this complicated political backdrop, the BJP is expected to make a concerted effort to secure a majority in Bihar, with the goal of consolidating its political control over the state and positioning itself to capture the Chief Minister’s office. A decisive victory in Bihar would mark a significant achievement for the BJP, cementing its dominance in the Hindi heartland and strengthening its regional influence.

In addition to these electoral battles, the Modi government faces a growing estrangement from the opposition, which threatens to erode the democratic fabric of the country. A robust democracy requires a vibrant, respectful exchange of ideas between the ruling party and the opposition, yet recent political developments have seen the breakdown of this essential dialogue. A particularly egregious example of this deterioration occurred during a parliamentary debate on Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, where the sanctity of the legislative process was violated. This incident, among others, highlights the increasing personalisation of political conflicts, which diminishes the quality of public discourse.

Further exacerbating this political climate, the Congress Party is poised to continue raising questions about the government’s alleged ties to corporate interests, particularly in relation to the Adani Group. The opposition has accused the Modi administration of lacking transparency and of maintaining dubious relationships with powerful business conglomerates. Although the effectiveness of these charges in terms of producing tangible political outcomes remains unclear, the Congress remains steadfast in its pursuit of this line of attack.

Simultaneously, the opposition is likely to focus on pressing issues such as the rising cost of essential commodities, rampant unemployment, inflation, agrarian distress, and the overall weakening of the national economy. By highlighting the challenges faced by the common citizen, the opposition may attempt to position the government as out of touch with the needs of ordinary people, particularly marginalised communities. The opposition may also resurrect the issue of caste-based politics, accusing the central government of undermining the interests of Dalits and backward classes.

The Modi government’s response to these challenges will require deft political maneuvering. It must balance the demands of economic growth with the imperative of social justice. This will involve addressing the rising discontent over economic issues while also managing the political fallout from the opposition’s aggressive campaigns. The year ahead represents a formidable challenge for the central government, demanding skilful navigation of both domestic and international political dynamics. The extent to which the government can reconcile its economic ambitions with its social justice objectives will ultimately define its political trajectory and determine the future of India’s socio-political landscape.