A cause for concern

DC Pathak

(The writer is a former Director Intelligence Bureau)

In a situation where the dividing line between a democratic protest and a planned attempt by the Opposition to use street agitation for bringing down an elected government was getting blurred, the events of the recent weeks call for a deep examination of whether forces inimical to India were fishing in troubled waters to cause internal destabilization here – in furtherance of the "proxy war" that had been conducted by them against India over the years.

First, in the context of a sustained attack made by the opposition on the Modi government on the issue of 'secularism', it should be noted that the 'secular' content of a democracy quite simply embraced three paradigms – the elected political executive of the country would not have a denominational stamp, there will be development of all and the state will work for equal protection of law for all citizens. The Modi regime has by and large stood by this – any communally motivated act of violence in public had to be firmly put down by the State government concerned. The only ground on which the Centre could possibly be faulted was that it did not exercise sternly enough its constitutional right to chastise a state for failure on the law and order front. The charge of Modi government fostering majoritarianism does not hold water because Hindus were not all politically united and the democratic order of India based on 'one man one vote' had not been disturbed – the criticism is being mounted only for garnering the support of a minority.

Regrettably, the domestic opposition has, instead of taking on the ruling dispensation in Parliament, confronted it through an agitation on the street on any issue that was perceived to be good enough for drawing in a significant section of the population – the unresolved farmers' agitation now enlarged as a movement of the combined opposition illustrates this. That there were powerful lobbies abroad that were using the farmers' stir to project the Modi regime as a 'fascist' dispensation and closely tracking the run-up to the Republic Day here, has been unravelled by the outpourings of Greta Thunberg, the young Swedish activist who had been operating out of US and Europe.

While this country is familiar with agitational politics, certain events of the last few days raise serious concerns from the point of view of internal security. The raid on the Red Fort ramparts by agitators who went on to plant a Nishan Sahib flag there on January 26 and the IED blast near the Israeli Embassy on January 29, the day of Beating Retreat, stand out as events designed to tar the image of India and make the national capital look insecure. The first happening has to be seen in the backdrop of the farmers' agitation getting associated with the Sikh identity – Intelligence even reporting on the involvement of Khalistani elements in India and abroad with the stir. The IED blast on January 29 strongly pointed to the likelihood of Islamic radicals delivering a 'message of terror' to India for its strong alignments with Israel and the US on issues affecting the 'Muslim world'. The terror blast has to be probed for its domestic and foreign links in order to fully uncover the enemy agents behind it. As regards the vandalism at the Red Fort, it has to be ascertained if the act of hoisting the Sikh flag was the outcome of a planned operation involving perpetrators with Khalistani links.

The explosion on January 29 reportedly had Nitrate – suspicion of PETN having been used was voiced – with an ignition mechanism connected to a battery cell. It packed steel pellets for causing damage and bodily injury within a fairly large perimeter. A letter left on the spot is said to have delivered a warning to the Israeli Ambassador and also talked of further attacks. On social media, the so-called Jaishul Hind claimed responsibility for the blast – credibility of this was yet to be ascertained. A few indicators of the wider picture around the terror act are relevant for investigation – the probe is now in the hands of NIA. It is known how 9/11 had set off the 'war on terror' by the US-led world coalition against Islamic radicals of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and later against the ISIS in the Syria-Iraq belt.

The US and its closest allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, became the prime enemy for the radicals. The 'war' traversed a chequered geo-political course since then, seeing two major shifts in alignments within the Muslim world that shape the current scenario. One is the new development that occurred during the Presidency of Donald Trump – a friendship pact between Israel on one the hand and the Saudi Arabia-UAE camp leading the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), on the other. The Saudis have been a target of radicals who, in turn, had the support of Arab states like Yemen and Qatar. The transformational tie-up of the Gulf leaders with Israel has accentuated the division within the Islamic world on the plank of their closeness to the US.

The other significant trend is the changing profile of Pakistan under Prime Minister Imran Khan, from being a frontline ally of the US in the anti-Soviet armed campaign in Afghanistan to becoming an upholder of Taliban-Al Qaeda combine that had headed the Afghan Emirate at Kabul in 1996 – installed with the active support of Pakistan. The Emirate showed its fangs to the US and was ousted at the initiative of the latter – this is what laid the turf for 9/11. Pakistan was always a reluctant partner of the US in the 'war on terror' and when President Trump called out Pakistan for its duplicitous conduct on Islamic extremism, the Imran regime became recalcitrant towards America and came out in open support of the radicals.

Currently, a trio of Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia is rising in parallel to Saudi-UAE leadership in the OIC, basically on the issue of US actions against Al Qaeda, Taliban and ISIS. All of this directly impacts India as Pak ISI floated proxies of Al Qaeda and ISIS to take on India such as Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Gazwa-e-Hind, that was behind the appearance of ISIS flags in the Kashmir valley during the militant agitation there against Burhan Wani's death at the hands of the security forces. The reported claim of Jaishul Hind about the January 29 blast talks of South Asia, which is a narrative associated with Pakistan. Also, it needs to be mentioned that the IEDs used in Punjab, during the years of terror there, by the Pak-ISI supported militants were based on ammonium nitrate.

The Delhi explosion is also reportedly being looked upon from the angle of Iranian involvement since the warning that the recovered letter conveyed to the Israeli Ambassador – it was written in English by an educated youth – talked of the killing of Gen. Quasem Soleimani of Islamic Revolutionary Guard in a covert operation of the US last year. It is true that the Ayatollahs of Iran consider US and Israel as their first enemies, just like what Islamic radicals do, too. For both, the occasion of the anniversary of the start of India-Israel diplomatic relationship would be of special attention. Iran could have planned a more direct action against Israeli diplomats and not just a symbolic explosion on the Indian soil to express its ire against Israel. Indo-Iran relations have not been damaged in spite of the confrontation of Iran with the US in a situation where the special strategic bonds of India with the US had flourished during the Trump regime.

Moreover, as regards the Palestinian cause, it is the Sunni radical forces like the Al Qaeda and ISIS who totally identified themselves with it. The Shia radicals that the present Iran represents have a deep enmity towards Sunni extremists and fundamentalists for historical reasons and this is mutual. Sunni Islamic radicals attack Shias in the Pak-Afghan belt and elsewhere. India's security is threatened by Islamic radicals for whom Pakistan is the epicentre of support. It would not be beyond Pak masterminds to divert the suspicion for the Delhi blast in another direction. However, the reality of who are behind the January 29 explosion in Delhi will be established only by the investigation.

For India, its geopolitical strategy has to rest, among other things, on a deep and accurate understanding of the developments in the Islamic world – the course of Shia-Sunni divide, the internal cleavage within the Sunnis on radical Islam versus other fundamentalists and the differing alignments with the US-led West. The policy of the Biden Presidency towards Pakistan, China and Indo-US defence partnership would be crucial for India and so would be a fresh evaluation of the countries in South and South East Asia in regard to their attitude to China that was next door and the US that remained a distant superpower for them. There are new opportunities for India in this provided we handle the friendly Islamic countries and other Asian nations around us effectively. (IANS)