A double-edged sword

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) floating the hope for implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 from January next year is a calculated move by the party with an eye on the Assembly elections in West Bengal. The Ministry of Home Affairs, however, is yet to notify the rules of CAA even though the Act was passed in December last year. With less than four months left for the 2021 Assembly polls in Assam, the ruling BJP has weighed electoral impact of CAA implementation in both the poll-bound states-West Bengal and Assam and has pushed it for public discourse to gauge the mood of electors. The BJP-led government at the Centre is wary of revival of anti-CAA movement in Assam and other North-eastern states which explains the delay. The Manual of Parliamentary Procedures states that in case the Ministries/Departments are not able to frame the rules within the prescribed period of six months, they should seek extension of time from the Committee on Subordinate Legislation stating reasons for such extension; such extension being not more than for a period of three months at a time.

The Ministry of Home Affairs in August approached the parliamentary committee for extension of three months for publication of the rules. The rules have not yet been notified even though the period of extension was over on November 2. Once the CAA rules are notified, all Hindu and other non-Muslim illegal migrants from Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan who came on or before December 31, 2014 will be able to apply for grant of Indian citizenship. The All Assam Students' Union (AASU) has announced plans to intensify the anti-CAA agitation which lost steam following outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Birth of two new regional parties, the Assam Jatiya Parishad at the behest of AASU and Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba-Chatra Parishad and the Raijor Dal at the behest of the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, kept both Assam government and the Central government on tenterhooks as all three organizations were at the forefront of a strong anti-CAA agitations in Assam last year. In Meghalaya also, the demand for rollback of the CAA is gaining momentum in the revived agitation seeking introduction of the Inner Line Permit system in the hill state. The Confederation of Meghalaya Social Organizations, which is spearheading the ILP movement, has been urging the Meghalaya government and all legislators in the state to mount pressure on the Central government to bring Meghalaya under the purview of the restrictive regime.

The High-Level Committee on Clause 6 of the Assam Accord also recommended introduction of ILP in the state as part of measures under constitutional safeguards for "Assamese people" under the clause and as defined by the committee. The ILP as a safety valve against illegal Bangladeshi migrants changing demography in the North-eastern states was pushed only by the Central government in the amended citizenship legislation. The CAA is not applicable in areas under the Sixth Schedule and ILP regime. The Central government rushed to extend the colonial era restrictive regime in Manipur in response to intensified agitation against CAA. In Assam seven districts governed by the autonomous councils under the Sixth Schedule have been excluded from the purview of the act. The recommendations of the High-Level Committee on Clause 6 put the Central government on a sticky wicket as the ILP regime in Assam will keep the entire state out from the purview of the CAA. The BJP cannot expect the promise of providing constitutional safeguards under Clause 6 of the accord offset the anti-CAA campaign in Assam anymore as the Central government has put recommendations of the High-Level Committee in the backburner. Ironically, it is the Central government which constituted the committee and promised to implement its recommendations in toto.

The ruling party can least afford to let the anti-CAA agitation revive in Assam ahead of the Assembly polls when it is looking at retaining power for a consecutive term on the development plank. It is worried that the implementation of the CAA in Assam ahead of Assembly polls will push the opposition parties and organizations to unite on a single platform and pose tough electoral challenge to the ruling BJP-led coalition in the state. A revived agitation against the CAA in Assam has the potential to snowball into a lager electoral issue and overshadow the campaign already built by the ruling coalition over rolling out of several schemes by the State government of doling out cash assistance and other welfare schemes for targeted electors. Contrary to its apprehension over revived anti-CAA sentiment adversely affecting its poll prospects in Assam, the BJP is pushing it as a major poll plank to woo the electors, particularly the migrants from erstwhile East Pakistan and Bangladesh in West Bengal. The CAA has become a double-edged sword for the BJP.