A Himalayan risk beyond state capacity

The Union Home Secretary, Govind Mohan, highlighted the importance of regularly and actively monitoring at-risk glacial lakes and avalanche-prone areas, especially when the risk is high, bringing Arunachal Pradesh and other Himalayan states into the national spotlight. The high-level meeting, led by the Union Home Secretary, discussed the growing danger of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the Himalayan region, stressing the need for early warning systems, monitoring risky glacial lakes and snowy areas, finding high-risk spots and flow paths, sharing alerts on time, being ready for evacuations, and improving response plans; these steps are vital because the risks are rising quickly. The outcomes will be dependent on how swiftly the States and various central agencies translate these directives into ground-level preparedness for risk prevention and response. The 2023 GLOF in North Sikkim, triggered by a sudden glacier collapse and ice-rock avalanche that caused a recent catastrophic flood and mudslide in Nepal, demonstrated that once a GLOF occurs, there is only a narrow window of just a few minutes for early warning and response. This grim reality underscores the urgency for India to accelerate its transition from a relief-centric disaster management model to a comprehensive, integrated approach covering prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, relief, reconstruction, and rehabilitation. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs noted in its latest report that there are still major issues with completing, standardising, and enforcing hazard mapping across the country, highlighting a serious shortcoming in scientific risk assessment, which is essential for effective disaster risk reduction. The Committee is urging that multi-hazard risk mapping for floods, landslides, earthquakes, and glacial lake hazards be completed quickly and made mandatory for all states and union territories at risk, highlighting an urgent need that cannot be delayed. The growing number of dangerous glacial lakes at high altitudes in Arunachal Pradesh has raised the risk of GLOFs in the state, and managing this risk can’t just be the job of the state; the central government also needs to use all its resources to help this border state, which is facing increasing climate risks that it can’t handle on its own. The Union Home Secretary has emphasised the need for GLOF and snow avalanche preparedness to shift from response-oriented measures to risk-informed planning, preventive mitigation, and community-level preparedness, highlighting the shared responsibility of both central and state governments in disaster management. According to the National Policy on Disaster Management, 2009, the primary responsibility for undertaking rescue, relief and rehabilitation measures in the event of a disaster lies with the State Government, while the Central Government supplements the efforts of the State Governments by providing logistic and financial support, particularly in the event of calamities of a severe nature. The paradigm shift from a relief-centric model to a prevention-driven approach calls for far greater investment in risk mapping and mitigation. Grounded in advanced scientific research and rigorous hazard-mapping surveys, and the central government providing full financial and logistic support to undertake hazard-mapping surveys in high altitudes of Arunachal Pradesh and other Himalayan states will be critical to strengthen preparedness and early warning of GLOFs in the Himalayan region. Reframing the Central government’s advice to the States/UTs to regularly review their preparedness plans, identify gaps in early warning and evacuation arrangements, and undertake necessary corrective measures in advance of any extreme event in light of the massive funding requirement for advanced scientific research and hazard mapping calls for the central government to shoulder the responsibility of providing the required financial and scientific backbone for such efforts. Escalating glacial lake melting due to climate change impact demands that the central government undertake a review of the GLOF mitigation project sanctioned by it in 2024 for Arunachal Pradesh and other Himalayan states to ensure it is dynamic enough to incorporate the latest scientific findings and warnings. The Parliamentary Committee’s emphasis on accurate forecasting and timely dissemination of warnings as critical pillars for effective disaster risk reduction underscores the urgency of upgrading and modernising early-warning systems across all vulnerable regions. The Committee recommends that the central government should prioritise increasing investment in advanced forecasting technologies, like artificial intelligence and machine learning models, Doppler weather radars, high-resolution weather prediction systems, and satellite monitoring, to make forecasts more accurate and reliable, and this should be backed by sufficient funding. Creating a specific system to monitor and evaluate how funds for disaster prevention are used, as suggested by the Committee, is essential to quickly change from a focus on disaster relief to a model that prevents risks, ensuring that funds are consistently available. The escalating climate-driven risks sweeping the Himalayan landscape are far too severe to allow delay in project execution caused by interruptions in fund flow.