A mandate, both historic and decisive

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) scoring a hat-trick win in Assam was predictable, and the landslide victory of the ruling alliance in the state reflects a pronounced pro-incumbency wave in favour of the government headed by incumbent Chief Minister Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma. The historic mandate clearly and convincingly signalled that Sarma has built a national reputation as a deft hand at electoral strategy reinforced by his spectacular performance of delivering on governance. It also reinforced the unwavering popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his broad national appeal as a powerful leader. The mandate shows that voters flatly rejected the Congress-led electoral alliance and saw it as an opportunistic pre-poll alliance only to dislodge the BJP-led ruling alliance from power with no pragmatic alternative agenda of governance. Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Gaurav Gogoi and the declared chief ministerial face of united opposition losing the poll from the Jorhat Assembly constituency in just two years of his election to the parliament from the Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency speaks volumes of a deeper crisis gripping his party. In the absence of a clear governance agenda of united opposition parties, the electors were apprehensive of disruption in ongoing development activities initiated by the BJP-led government in its two terms if the Congress-led opposition alliance gets elected. BJP securing a majority on its own and increasing its tally by 22 seats from 60 seats won in 2021 will ensure more political stability, which is needed for stronger policy decisions and stronger laws for strengthening governance. Beneficiary schemes, especially for 40 lakh women beneficiaries of the flagship Orunodoi scheme, played a decisive role in the NDA scripting the electoral history of the ruling alliance winning 102 of the total 126 seats. Poll prediction made by Chief Minister Sarma that the Congress will be reduced virtually to a party with primarily Muslim legislators of East Bengal origin came true, which has sounded the alarm bell for the grand old party of a permanent loss of its traditional support base among indigenous communities and majority Hindu voters in the state if the party continues to brush aside genuine apprehension of indigenous communities over demographic change posed by unabated infiltration from Bangladesh and population explosion among illegal migrants settled in the state. The failure of the Congress party to win the support of the majority community will also raise a question mark over its claim of being a secular party and championing the cause of all communities, irrespective of religion. Voters in the state belonging to indigenous communities will continue to watch the role of Congress and other opposition parties when the NDA government moves ahead with its unfinished agenda of clearing encroachment from forest land, Xatra land. The voters will observe if the opposition parties would continue to oppose eviction drives by the BJP-led government, with an eye on the vote bank of religious minorities, and ignore the real existential threat to indigenous people due to demographic change. As these were the first assembly polls after the delimitation of constituencies, the consolidation of support bases of the BJP and its allies will present a tougher hurdle for Congress and its allies in subsequent elections if they rely more on poll rhetorics instead of strengthening organisational bases and making genuine attempts to understand the voters’ pulse – their aspirations and expectations. Nevertheless, the sweeping mandate for the BJP-led NDA comes with heightened expectations, and the ruling coalition’s ability to meet them will be crucial for sustaining the confidence of voters in them. The unprecedented victory in Assam has come with the party’s landslide victory in West Bengal, ending the 15-year rule of the Trinamool Congress. The historic triumph of the BJP in the two neighbouring states has helped it consolidate its electoral support base in Eastern and Northeast India. Chief Minister Sarma has rightly claimed that the BJP coming to power in the neighbouring state has strategic importance, as the vast porous India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal remains a critical gap as Bangladeshi infiltrators who sneak into West Bengal through this open border migrate and settle in Assam. While erection of barbed wire fence along the West Bengal-Bangladesh border is pivotal to strengthening the border guarding measures along the entire India-Bangladesh border, the protection of language, culture, and heritage of Assamese and other indigenous communities hinges on identification of illegal Bangladeshi migrants in the state and their immediate expulsion to Bangladesh. The historic and unprecedented mandate has placed the responsibility on the BJP-led ruling coalition to expedite the identification and expulsion of Bangladeshi migrants who have illegally settled in the state. While this political agenda must remain a top priority for the new government too, taking the development activities to the next level, prioritising strengthening the state economy will be crucial to achieve the dream goal set by Chief Minister Sarma of transforming Assam into one of the top five states.