Bangladesh: New uncertainty

The recent death of Khaleda Zia has brought the curtains down on a long-drawn political drama in that country, which was often referred to as Bangladesh’s “Battling Begums” era. This also marks a shift from personality-driven politics – Hasina versus Khaleda – towards institutional realignment, a moment India has been watching closely for stability, both in the neighbouring country as well as in the neighbourhood. Meanwhile, political pundits have seen the arrival of Khaleda Zia’s son Tarique Rahman in Dhaka and his declaration of the intention to lead the BNP in upcoming elections as potentially reshaping Bangladesh’s ties with New Delhi. India definitely seeks a stronger, healthier engagement with the emerging political landscape in that country, and this despite challenges including the increasing clout of the fundamentalists and radicals and the internal dynamics affecting BNP, in addition to what course of action Hasina’s Awami League adopts. New Delhi has already started an encouraging engagement with Dhaka, including high-level attendance at her funeral, which together signal an outreach to future leadership of Bangladesh by way of seeking positive relations and recognising the need for credible elections to resolve political stagnation. It is important to note that post-Hasina and post-Khaleda, Bangladesh politics has opened doors for new leadership to emerge. For India, it is important to note that Khaleda’s son Tarique Rahman, who is now poised to lead the BNP, presents a new dynamic, though his return from exile and leadership style remain key variables.  Who the Awami League installs as its new leader, and how the new leadership will steer the League, is at present a million-dollar question, especially after the interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammd Yunus as its Chief Advisor had practically taken an anti-India stand. But the fact remains that India views the transition as crucial for Bangladesh’s future engagement, particularly concerning regional stability and bilateral ties.  New Delhi’s diplomatic engagement, including External Affairs Minister Jaishankar attending the funeral, signals a desire to build positive relations with the new political establishment, potentially the BNP, ahead of the February 2026 elections.  After all, Khaleda Zia’s death is a significant inflection point, prompting India to engage proactively with a shifting political landscape in Bangladesh, aiming for stability and stronger, more positive bilateral relations with whichever new leadership emerges.