Bangladesh: The resignation and after

Udayan Hazarika

(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)

 The students’ agitation in Bangladesh to end the discriminatory practices of reservation in jobs has received its dividends not only in the form of the exit of Prime Minister Seikh Hasina Wazed but also in the appointment of a person of their choice to lead the interim government in Bangladesh during the intervening period between the fall of the government and forming it afresh after fresh elections. Prof. Younus has earlier indicated his acceptance of the proposal to lead the interim government. Today, after a detailed discussion with President Shahabuddin and the coordinators of the anti-discrimination student’s movement, the Nobel Laureate was appointed as the head of the Bangladesh interim government. The Dhaka Tribune reported that this was disclosed by the Press Secretary of the President. However, the report neither figured out anything regarding the participation of any representatives from the armed forces in the meeting nor indicated the appointment of any other advisers of the interim government. 

Seikh Hasina’s exit from Bangladesh politics is not looked upon as a surprise by the political commentators; rather, it is defined as an inevitable event as it was written on the wall. Thus, finally, after almost 35 days of agitation, she has been forced to withdraw from power. This destiny was indeed inevitable! Now that the son of Seikh Hasina has announced that his mother will not come back to politics again, it is certain that the future of the Awami League is at stake—at least for the time being. President Mahammed Shahabuddin has already dissolved the 12th Parliament, constituted only after the national elections in January 2024. The president has promised fresh elections to the parliament soon. As usual, the main opposition party of Bangladesh, namely the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia, has been released from jail along with many others. Although the Chief of the Armed Forces, who assumed the power of the country, has already cleared the appointment of Prof. Younus, the other members of the interim government are yet to be appointed. Several names, like 1) Md. Salehuddin Ahmed, former Governor of Bangladesh Bank; and 2) former Brigadier General Shahidul Alom Khan, have also been in the air for inclusion in the interim government. Considering the meeting held on Monday night with the President in the presence of the representatives of the BNP, Jamat-e Islami, various left political parties, and the Islami Andolan, Bangladesh, the possibility of including one or two representatives from these parties also cannot be ruled out. In that case, the size of the advisers in the interim government will exceed the usual number of 10 and will be around 12. But there is no doubt that, at the core of affairs, the real power will lie with the military ruler alone. The pattern of governance that the military rulers followed during their 15-year rule from 1975 to 1990 is already before them, and it can be safely presumed that the said old system will be activated. Holding a quick parliamentary election, therefore, is not very easy. It will take the military ruler to settle down in the process and coordinate with the real matters of administration. Undoubtedly, there will be tremendous pressure from democratic governments to come back to civilian rules as quickly as possible. Apart from this, as expressed by the Union Minister of External Affairs, Mr. S. Jaishankar, if any external forces played a role in the recent developments in Bangladesh, then the situation would undoubtedly take a critical turn.

Going back to history, we find that the country was marked by not less than 29 coup attempts. The present one is the third military ruler after the late Zia Ul Haque and Hussain Md. Ershad. The situation this time is different, as the Martial regime assumed power after the forced resignation of the Prime Minister by a civilian agitation.

Bangladesh shares its long stretch of boundaries (4096 km) on the eastern, northern, and western sides of India. Major part of the boundary falls along north-east India, while West Bengal maintains 2216 km. India’s relationship with Bangladesh started flourishing after 2009, when Seikh Hasina came to power, and as a result of India’s liberal neighbourhood policy. Today, India maintains a strong bilateral trade relationship with Bangladesh. India’s exports to Bangladesh comprise items ranging from agriculture, cotton textiles, and the IT sector, like vegetables, coffee, tea, spices, sugar chemicals, refined petroleum oil, cotton steel, vehicles, etc. While imports include fish, plastic, leather, etc. India’s exports to Bangladesh declined to USD 11 billion in 2023–24 from USD 12.21 billion in 2022–23. Imports too declined to USD 1.84 billion in the last fiscal year from USD 2 billion in 2022–23.

The economy of Bangladesh as it stands today is not in very bad shape. The IMF data confirms that the economy has been growing at an average rate of 5.5 percent since 2010 until 2019, i.e., until the pre-pandemic stage. It was also the year when the growth rate was the highest, at 7.9 percent. According to the IMF, the economy has not recovered since the pandemic. A high, rising inflation rate is the basic hazard. The ruling inflation at the beginning of the current fiscal year was around 10 percent, which has declined marginally to 9.72 percent in June 2024. Now, after this turmoil, the rate is sure to climb up to register above 10 percent. It will take the new regime some more time to tame the inflation. The country passed the budget for 2024 in June, with GDP at Rs 40.30 lakh crore (in Indian rupee), showing a growth rate above 10 percent over the last year. At a time when the country is running out of foreign exchange reserves, Dhaka reportedly received an assurance from China to provide financial assistance to the tune of $2 billion (initially $5 billion). The budget document showed a foreign borrowing of Rs 1.27 lakh crore taka, a major portion of which was perhaps proposed to be covered from the loan amount as mentioned above, reportedly promised by China. But during her last visit to China in July (8–10) 2024, the media report (Economic Times, July 15, 2024) shows that China has declined to provide any financial assistance to her, and she was not given the expected protocol.

The government of India, for the time being, has not reacted to the recent developments in the neighbouring country. The government has disclosed that the deposed Prime Minister Seikh Hasina was given some time to chalk out her next move, and only thereafter will the government fix its future course of action on the matter. At this hour of distress for the neighbouring country, India must restrain itself from making statements that may derogate the present bilateral relations. An attempt should be made to maintain our status quo with reference to our relationship with the country. Her regime has been blamed for being authoritarian and full of nepotism and corruption, yet people do not hesitate to say that she was instrumental in bringing economic growth to the pre-pandemic stage and planned the economic growth leading to the modernisation of the economy. One notable example of her regime is that there was no serious communal conflict during her regime, and this is due to her secular image. The worst thing that happened in her last ten years was the arrest of many opposition leaders and the barring of free speech, which also continued during the last six months of her current tenure. This has deteriorated the situation.