Bangladesh’s hostility towards India is a strategic blunder

External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar’s telling Bangladesh to decide what kind of relations it wants with India is a timely message to the neighbouring country to stop its anti-India rhetoric. India securing its borders and remaining vigilant against any attempt by anti-India elements in the neighbouring country is critical to safeguarding the Northeast region from becoming a haven of such elements. The hostile behaviour of Bangladesh towards India under its interim government headed by its advisor Muhammad Yunus has also clouded India’s Neighbourhood First Policy with uncertainty. The rise of radical Islamist forces in the neighbouring country, which have been targeting minority Hindus there, has also raised internal security concerns about Bangladesh-linked terror outfits targeting Assam and other states in the region and making desperate attempts to establish their network in the region. The arrest of a dreaded cadre of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a Bangladesh-linked terror outfit linked to Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) last month by the Special Task Force of Assam Police in the Dhubri district bordering Bangladesh calls for strengthening intelligence gathering to bust sleeper cells of Islamic terror outfits in the state. The number of ABT activists, including a Bangladeshi national arrested by STF in the state rising to 13, has sounded alarm bells on the spurt in anti-India activities and recruitment of like-minded people in the state by Bangladeshi terror outfits. EAM Jaishankar categorically told Bangladesh that it cannot, on one hand, say that it wants good relations with India and, at the same time, blame India for everything that goes wrong for it domestically. India has been voicing serious concern over rising attacks on religious minorities, including Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists in Bangladesh, but the interim government is in a denial mode and brazenly trying to refute it by attributing the incidents to deep anger towards the ousted Sheikh Hasina government and her party, the Awami League, and insisting the violence is more political than sectarian. Bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries strengthened manyfold during the Hasina regime and India under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pushing the Neighbourhood First Policy to step up cooperation to improve cross-border connectivity, trade and commerce, and power and energy sectors. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia, and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia. According to the Ministry of External Affairs, Bangladesh exported US dollars (USD) 1.97 billion of goods to India in 2023-24. Besides, Bangladesh imports 1160 MW of power from India, which is reflective of the power and energy sector emerging as a new area for stronger bilateral relations and the growing dependence of Bangladesh on India for its energy security. The MEA brief also states that India has extended 3 lines of credit to Bangladesh in the last 8 years, amounting to around USD 8 billion for the development of infrastructure in various sectors, including roads, railways, shipping, and ports. All these are pointers of how important smooth bilateral relations between the two countries are for Bangladesh economically. Moreover, India facilitating vital cross-border connectivity through land borders and waterways for trade between Bangladesh and Bhutan also makes it imperative for Bangladesh to ensure that, irrespective of its regime, maintaining the best of bilateral ties with India is strategically more important for Bangladesh. For India, a transit facility through Bangladesh is advantageous for reducing transportation costs for supplies from the rest of India to the Northeast region. Even though India is getting this transit facility in the economic interest of the northeast region, Bangladesh must realise that India is not wholly dependent on this transit facility and has already put the northeast region on a faster track of progress using the Chicken Neck Corridor to expedite railway, road, air, and waterway connectivity, undertaking mega projects of development. India also has strategic alternative access to the Northeast available through Myanmar once the Kaladan multimodal project is commissioned. The previous Hasina regime, launching a crackdown against insurgent outfits from the northeast operating from its bases in Bangladesh, played a crucial role in the return of peace and reduction of extremist activities in the region to pave the way for faster development and progress. India is wary of insurgent outfits still active in the region being provided fresh shelter bases in Bangladesh, which could pose a fresh threat to the fragile peace in the Northeast. The growing hostilities of Bangladesh towards India are seen as a result of the growing influence of China and Pakistan in the domestic affairs of the neighbouring country, which in the long run will prove costly for Bangladesh. Despite the regime change, India sent a clear message to Dhaka to advance ties with Bangladesh, but it cannot remain tight over growing military ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Bangladesh realising that it has been making a strategic blunder by raising unjustified hostility towards India is highly crucial for the country to sustain its growth momentum.