Bangladesh’s realignment: Growing Pakistan-China ties and India’s response

Lata Moni Das

(Latadas2020@gmail.com)

Is Dhaka’s repetitive request for Delhi to extradite ousted Prime Minister Hasina signalling a deeper diplomatic rift between the two countries? Bilateral relations have been put under considerable strain, and in recent months, there has been growing concern seen among Indian officials over Bangladesh’s interim government’s close relationship with both Pakistan and China that demands greater geopolitical concern. Taking proactive measures to maintain stability is a must; India cannot let Dhaka off the hook.

The response of India to these developments will be of critical importance. Expelling the issue disproportionately could lead to a deepening strain in diplomatic relations and broader regional instability if Bangladesh escalates the issue. There’s something alarming about the Yunus government’s reluctance to hold elections on time. The continuation of delays risks plunging the country into turmoil, creating a power vacuum that hardline factions, such as Jamaat-e-Islami (historically anti-India), may exploit. Islamic extremist elements are becoming increasingly influential. Several religious groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami (Bangladesh), Hefazat-e-Islam and Islami Andolan (Bangladesh), have called openly for the establishment of an Islamic state in the country. Increasing radicalisation of youth in Bangladesh and their affiliation with global jihadist networks could fuel violence and militancy in our border states. There is also an anti-India movement in Bangladesh where minorities like Hindus are being targeted. In the past few months, there has been an increase in the number of illegal immigrants entering India. Assam has a majority Muslim population in many districts, particularly those located south of the Brahmaputra bordering Bangladesh. Assam has experienced tensions over resource allocation, social integration, and political representation due to the presence of millions of undocumented Bangladeshis. It has also been controversial to grant citizenship to non-Muslim refugees from Bangladesh under the 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which seeks to identify and expel illegal immigrants.

Recently, the Bangladeshi government under Muhammad Yunus has shown a clear affinity for Pakistan and China. The political landscape of Bangladesh is in constant flux, and here the question comes: will democracy prevail in Bangladesh, or is another military coup imminent? Because Bangladesh has a long history of military intervention in governance, General Zaman’s statements have only added fuel to speculation. In his comments, he underscores the growing role played by the military in maintaining internal stability, a situation that has raised concerns about a shift to authoritarian rule.

For India, the newfound warmth between Pakistan and Bangladesh raises concern; because it is India’s closest trading partner, its proximity to northeastern states and its cooperation in counter-insurgency have been critical. After 50 years, a Pakistani cargo ship docked at Chittagong that raises India’s concern. The country’s unprecedented invitation to train its soldiers with Pakistani Army personnel has caused consternation in Indian strategic circles. The Muhammad Yunus government in Bangladesh is making it easier for terrorists and illegal goods from Pakistan to enter India by removing security checks. India must strengthen its borders, improve intelligence sharing, and collaborate with other countries to prevent these dangers from occurring. Islamist influence in Bangladesh may boost Pakistan’s relations with Dhaka.

After the fall of Hasina, Beijing has intensified its engagement with Bangladeshi leaders, activists, and delegations, including those from Islamist parties. Analysts suggest that with the political vacuum and the reduced influence of India, Beijing is aiming to strengthen its presence in Bangladesh, a nation with a population of approximately 170 million. In contrast to Beijing’s efforts, India has had minimal contact with the interim government and other political figures in Bangladesh recently. Recently, a potential J-10C purchase by Bangladesh signals increasing military cooperation with China, though Dhaka has always depended on Beijing for defence equipment. In addition to Pakistan, Dhaka is going to have the opportunity to operate advanced Chinese fighter jets if it purchases the J-10C. Bangladeshi Islamist groups also maintain strong relations with China. On the day of Das’ arrest, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen met with Islamist leaders in Dhaka and hosted a gathering attended by anti-India groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh. With limited influence in Dhaka, India is deeply concerned under the new administration. To gain more influence in the Indian Ocean region, China is strengthening its relations with Dhaka. One of the main trading hubs in South and Southeast Asia is Bangladesh’s Chattogram Port, and Beijing’s infrastructure investment and potential strategic interest raise India’s strategic concern. Bangladesh’s position near China and India and its direct access to the Bay of Bengal have made it an important actor in regional geopolitics, and now it has become a stage between two giant powers. There are claims that the ISI is providing weapons to training facilities in Bangladesh, where Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi individuals are being prepared for militant operations. In light of recent challenges along the Line of Control (LOC), Pakistan appears to be seeking to leverage the situation in Bangladesh to penetrate India’s eastern borders, taking advantage of the Rohingya refugee crisis and working in conjunction with extremist Bangladeshi factions.

Should the Yunus administration strengthen its relationships with Pakistan and China, it may lead to a significant shift in regional alliances, potentially placing India in a more isolated position and affecting its strategic interests. Bangladesh knows that it can’t take any anti-India stances, as they are dependent on India for trade and security. Moreover, water sources also originate from India. India has funded infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including roads, railways, and power supply, through concessional loans to enhance connectivity. Recent high-level discussions between India and Bangladesh in Muscat, including the recent delegation’s visit to India, have reaffirmed their commitment to collaboration and regional stability. Additionally, the Teesta River project continues to be a vital issue, with China closely observing the situation. India must remain alert and adopt proactive diplomatic measures to address the increasing influence of Pakistan and China in Bangladesh. India has not signalled any intention to extradite Hasina, but it is crucial for India to ensure that she does not utilise its territory to undermine Bangladesh’s interim government, as this could create tensions in the bilateral relations.