Bangladesh’s Whimpers of Sabre Rattling & Indian Preparedness

Kumar Sanjay Krishna

(Kumar Sanjay Krishna was the Chief Secretary, Assam)

&

Jaideep Saikia

(Jaideep Saikia is one of India’s foremost strategists and a bestselling author)

Amidst disconcerting reports that the illegitimate regime of Md. Yunus of  Bangladesh has drawn up a blueprint to permit China to build an airbase in Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat district, there is growing concern in India’s national security circles that Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, and foreign secretary, Amna Baloch, would be visiting Dhaka on April 22, 2025 in order to cement a military agreement with the erstwhile East Pakistan.

Lalmonirhat is strategically located in northwestern Bangladesh. The region strategically abuts Jalpaiguri and Coochbehar districts of West Bengal. The Chicken’s Neck is also located cheek-by-jowl to the area.

Media reports have been agog with stories about how a Chinese airbase in Lalmonirhat could pose a security threat to India’s Northeast as well as the Siliguri Corridor. Indeed, during the 1971 war which ended victoriously for India and the liberation of Bangladesh, there was talk of a Chinese pincer movement from the north and another from the south by the Pakistanis. A tactical marrying up in the general area of the Siliguri Corridor would have resulted in the severance of the North East from the Indian mainland.

But it is important to both “wargame” and “sand model” the threat that the latest report of a Chinese airbase in Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat might pose to India’s soft underbelly.

A section of the media seems to have very little knowledge about the Indian armed forces’ deployment pattern in the country. The Siliguri Corridor is certainly India’s Achilles heel, but the war planners of the Indian armed forces have not only comprehended the threat but have also circumvented it by taking recourse to a variety of means.

The Indian army not only has a full-fledged holding Corps in the region (Sukhna) but a new strike Corps (Panagarh) as well. While it is true that the stationing of the formidable assets by India in the sensitive areas was primarily directed towards China, the strategic planners in the Directorate General of Military Operations in South Block can quite easily recalibrate the elements to reorient themselves to the east, where belligerence seems to be emanating from, especially after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2025.

There is also talk that a China-Pakistan-Bangladesh military (land and air) exercise in the general area of Bangladesh’s Rangpur is being planned before the monsoon sets in. The Indian intelligence that oversees the nation’s external security is aware of the military exercise. Robust moves are also reportedly currently underway to counter the trilateral military exercise as well as the construction of the Chinese airbase in Lalmonirhat, which would be billeted for the Chengdu fighter (J-20).

The J-20’s avionics are aimed at acquiring situational awareness through cutting-edge sensor and data fusion while denying situational responses to the adversary through stealth and electronic warfare. The J-20 features a cohesive avionic suite consisting of multi-spectral sensors capable of providing omnidirectional coverage with onboard lethal PL-21 missiles.

India has an airbase in Hashimara which houses the French-acquired Rafale. The fighter (which one of the authors, Jaideep Saikia, was briefed about during his visit to the airbase!) is designed to be an “omni-role” aircraft, capable of performing a wide range of missions, including air superiority, air defence, reconnaissance, in-depth strikes, ground support, and anti-warship strikes, as well as to act as a nuclear deterrent. In short, it would be able to reliably match the J-20.

It has been reliably learnt that India is on the verge of commissioning a new naval base near Rambilli in Andhra Pradesh. It was meant to be operational by 2026 to bolster the Indian navy’s strategic edge in the Indian Ocean, but the recent “rumblings of war” have reportedly hastened its construction. The high-security facility, which is reportedly integral to the secretive Project Varsha, will house “Boomers” (nuclear submarines) with stealth capability with an overarching width control of the Bay of Bengal. The Indian Tri-Services Andaman & Nicobar Command will oversee its operations.

The western Karwar base is also being expanded under Project Seabird. The expansion is in keeping with India’s current need to keep a close watch on China’s growing influence in the region, including the aforesaid suspected airbase project in Bangladesh near the sensitive Siliguri Corridor.

In any event, the Chinese had been driven back from their adventurism when they sought to build a road to the base of the Jampheri Ridge during the Doklam crisis. India must beef up its presence near the Torsa Nullah, which, according to the authors, is the only manner in which Chinese belligerence can be trumpeted. But it must also be understood that in this age of information warfare, it is no longer necessary to be physically present in a place in order to monitor enemy movement. The Doklam crisis was characterised by the Indian press as China’s need to get atop the Jampheri Ridge so that they can monitor Indian armed forces activities. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles of the genre of the Hongdu GJ-11 Sharp Sword, which has a revisit time of six hours, can easily monitor the Siliguri Corridor from a workstation in TAR or Chengdu. However, the newfound relationship with Bangladesh might embolden China to undertake an aggressive posture and attempt to enlarge the Chumbi Valley. But, once again, the Indian army has more than enough elements in Sikkim to offset such warlike moves by the Chinese.

But the most important aspect that needs to be ensured is that panic buttons and uncalled-for rumours are summarily quashed. There is a need for preparedness, but not one of alarm. The security situation in the North East is sensitive at this time, with Manipur on the boil and belligerence entering the region from across Myanmar. New Delhi must assuage the populace of the region that it would not allow nefarious statements (as were made by Yunus) to translate into reality.

While it is true that Yunus’ Bangladesh is attempting to act as a foil against India by wooing both China and Pakistan and joint military exercises are being planned (as is the Lalmonirhat airbase!), the fact remains that the Indian armed forces are more than ready for any eventuality. Indeed, they have been undertaking perspective planning of even the demographic aspects that govern the Siliguri Corridor by way of massive illegal migration from Bangladesh. It has been closely observed that the illegal migrants are steadily attempting to engineer the emergence of a new social formation by entering into wedlock with Nepali Hindu womenfolk.

Jaideep Saikia, one of the authors, had delivered the keynote address in the Indian army’s 33 Corps (the venue was Bengdubi) in April 2024 about the aforesaid threats long before the nightmare which culminated in the flight of Sheikh Hasina from Dhaka came out to be true.