Brahmaputra’s future: China’s mega dam and geopolitical ripple effect

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com.) 

China made a bold declaration that has sent ripples of concern across South Asia: it would proceed with the construction of the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River, a project that has far-reaching implications for both India and Bangladesh. Known as the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet, the Brahmaputra is a vital water source for millions, flowing through China, India, and Bangladesh before eventually draining into the Bay of Bengal. The dam, which will be located in the ecologically fragile Himalayan region, has raised alarm bells in these downstream nations, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, in India, and Bangladesh, which heavily depend on the river’s water for agriculture, drinking, and industry.

The Chinese government has attempted to allay these concerns, asserting that its ambitious hydropower project will not ‘negatively affect’ the lower riparian states, including India and Bangladesh. In a press briefing on December 27, 2024, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized that the project had been thoroughly studied over the years, and safeguard measures had been incorporated to address ecological and safety concerns. Mao stressed that the dam would not disturb the water flow downstream, even as the project’s sheer scale and potential environmental impact continue to stir controversy.

The proposed dam is part of China’s ongoing strategy to harness the power of the Yarlung Zangbo for clean energy production, with the official investment estimated to exceed 1 trillion yuan (about $137 billion), dwarfing previous large-scale infrastructure projects, including the Three Gorges Dam. While Chinese officials insist the dam’s primary aim is to address climate change and hydrological extremes, sceptics fear it will be a geopolitical tool to gain leverage over the water resources shared with neighbouring countries.

Engineering Feats and Geopolitical Tensions: The site of the dam, situated in a deep gorge in Tibet where the Brahmaputra takes a U-turn toward India and Bangladesh, is not only an engineering marvel but also an area fraught with seismic activity. The Himalayan region, sitting atop major tectonic plate boundaries, is prone to frequent earthquakes, which adds another layer of risk to the construction of such a massive dam. Despite this, Chinese authorities have maintained that decades of study and planning have addressed potential risks, and the dam will be designed to withstand natural disasters, including earthquakes.

However, the strategic location of the dam and its scale have raised significant concerns, particularly in the context of regional security. India, which shares a longstanding border dispute with China, has expressed unease over the possibility of Beijing using the dam as a tool for controlling the flow of water into India and Bangladesh. The sudden release of water from the dam in the event of flooding could devastate large areas downstream, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Moreover, the sheer size of the infrastructure could allow China to manage the river’s flow in ways that could have adverse consequences for downstream ecosystems, agriculture, and communities.

In the past, India has raised these concerns in various diplomatic channels, urging China to be transparent about its water usage and ensure that its projects do not harm downstream populations. While India and China have institutionalised an Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) since 2006 to discuss issues related to trans-border rivers, including the Brahmaputra, India’s fears remain largely unaddressed. The lack of transparency about China’s ongoing hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra, such as the ones at Zangmu, Jiacha, Dagu, and Jiexu, continues to fuel suspicions about the cumulative environmental impact these dams may have on the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh and the broader Brahmaputra basin.

India’s Strategic Concerns and Response: Indian concerns are not limited to potential ecological damage; there is a growing fear that China may weaponize the river for political or military gain. The sudden release of water from the dam could lead to catastrophic flooding in the border areas of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, potentially putting India’s national security at risk. Such a scenario would not only threaten lives and properties but could also exacerbate already fragile relations between the two neighbouring powers.

To address these concerns, India has urged China to be more transparent about its water management practices and to cooperate on joint studies to assess the cumulative impact of its hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has taken a proactive stance, emphasizing the importance of balancing the need for infrastructure development with the protection of the river’s natural flow. Khandu has called on the central government to negotiate with China to ensure that the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh maintains its natural flow throughout the year and that flood risks are managed effectively. At the same time, Khandu has supported the construction of a multipurpose dam in Arunachal Pradesh, arguing that such a project could serve as a safeguard for local communities against the potential adverse impacts of Chinese dams on the Brahmaputra.

Khandu’s comments underline a broader debate within India, where local opposition to hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra has often been met with strong resistance. While some view dams as vital for flood control and power generation, others fear that they could disrupt local ecosystems and displace communities. In this context, the proposed Chinese mega dam has intensified the debate, forcing both local and national governments to consider the broader geopolitical implications of China’s growing influence over the Brahmaputra.

Bangladesh’s Perspective: Further downstream, Bangladesh, which depends heavily on the Brahmaputra for its agricultural and water needs, is also deeply concerned about the long-term effects of China’s hydropower projects. The lower riparian nation shares many of the same fears as India, including the possibility of China controlling water flows during times of political tension or conflict. Bangladesh has repeatedly expressed the need for a formal water-sharing agreement between the three riparian countries—China, India, and Bangladesh—before any large-scale projects on the Brahmaputra proceed. However, like India, Bangladesh has found it challenging to secure China’s cooperation on this front.

The Path Forward—Diplomacy and Cooperation: As the geopolitical stakes continue to rise, the need for greater cooperation and transparency between China, India, and Bangladesh becomes increasingly urgent. While China has emphasized the importance of its hydropower projects for addressing climate change and promoting clean energy, the lack of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement and the secrecy surrounding its water management practices remain significant points of contention.

India and Bangladesh have repeatedly called for joint studies on the cumulative impact of China’s hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra. The existing diplomatic frameworks, such as the Expert Level Mechanism and the Memorandum of Understanding on Trans-Border Rivers, provide a foundation for further discussions. However, these mechanisms have proven insufficient in addressing the concerns of lower riparian states, and it is clear that more robust and transparent arrangements are needed.

As China moves forward with its ambitious plans, the future of the Brahmaputra River—and the millions of people who depend on its waters—hangs in the balance. The coming years will likely see increased pressure on both India and China to find common ground, not just on the Brahmaputra, but on a broader framework for transborder river management that ensures equitable and sustainable water use for all riparian nations. Until then, the geopolitics of the Brahmaputra will continue to cast a long shadow over the region, with implications far beyond the river’s banks.