Climate Shock: Northeast India’s Drought Crisis

Nilim Kashyap Barthakur 

(nilimkashyap123@gmail.com)

The Northeast region of India, renowned for its lush greenery and rainfall, is currently facing an unprecedented drought-like situation. Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh, states typically blessed with heavy monsoon showers, are witnessing a severe decline in rainfall, threatening agriculture, hydropower generation, and the livelihoods of millions. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the region has experienced a significant rainfall deficit during the ongoing monsoon season, raising concerns about long-term impacts on the agricultural economy and water resources.

Assam, a state heavily reliant on monsoon rains for its agrarian economy, is facing a worrying decline in rainfall. The IMD reports that the state received only 394.9 mm of rainfall from June 1 to July, compared to the normal rainfall of 653.3 mm for this period, a staggering 40% deficit. In meteorological terms, a rainfall deviation of 19% or more from the norm is considered abnormal, and 21 districts in Assam have reported such conditions. Thirteen of these districts—Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Morigaon, Nagaon, Kamrup, Kamrup Metropolitan, Nalbari, Baksa, Tamulpur, Kokrajhar, Dhubri, Sonitpur, and Lakhimpur—are now classified as facing drought-like conditions. The rainfall deficit has been particularly severe in some areas. According to sources at Assam Agricultural University, districts such as Dibrugarh, Golaghat, Baksa, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Bajali, and Goalpara saw rainfall reductions of 62–72% in the first month of the monsoon season. This drastic shortfall has led to cracked fields, burnt seedlings, and parched landscapes. Farmers, who depend on timely rains for paddy cultivation, are facing an uncertain future. Agricultural scientists warn that mid-July is a critical period for paddy sowing, and the continued lack of rain could severely impact crop yields. The tea industry, a cornerstone of Assam’s economy for over two centuries, is also under threat. Irregular rainfall patterns and excessive heat are raising concerns about a potential crisis in tea production, which could have far-reaching economic implications for the state.

Meghalaya, often referred to as the “Abode of Clouds,” is not immune to the region’s rainfall crisis. Even Mawsynram, known for receiving the highest rainfall in the world, has recorded a shocking 54% deficit in rainfall this year. This drastic reduction has disrupted the state’s natural water systems and affected hydropower generation, a key energy source for the region. The 180 MW Umiam (Barapani) hydropower project near Shillong, operated by the Meghalaya government, has reported a significant decline in power generation due to insufficient water levels caused by the lack of rain. Engineers at the project have warned authorities that prolonged drought conditions could further hamper operations, potentially leading to power shortages in the state. The decline in rainfall, attributed to global warming and climate change, has left Meghalaya’s rivers and reservoirs at critically low levels, threatening both energy security and water availability.

Arunachal Pradesh is also reeling under the impact of a 40% rainfall deficit. Opposition parties in the state have urged the government to declare Arunachal Pradesh a drought-hit state, highlighting the severity of the situation. Large areas of the state are facing water scarcity, with agricultural activities grinding to a halt. The lack of rainfall has disrupted traditional farming practices, leaving farmers in distress and raising concerns about food security in the region. Meteorologists and agricultural scientists attribute the region’s rainfall deficit to the broader impacts of global warming and climate change. The Northeast, once known for its predictable monsoon patterns, is now experiencing erratic weather conditions, with prolonged dry spells and irregular rainfall. The IMD notes that Assam has seen a significant decline in rainfall compared to previous years, with the drought-like situation persisting for six months in some areas. This prolonged dry spell has led to severe water shortages in agricultural fields, with reports of seedlings wilting under the scorching sun.

The drought-like conditions are hitting tribal communities the hardest, particularly in areas like West Tripura. Studies show that tribal households, with a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) score of 0.456 compared to 0.327 for non-tribal households, face greater risks due to limited access to irrigation and modern agricultural tools. With only 12% of the region’s geographical area suitable for farming, dependence on erratic rainfall makes these communities especially susceptible to crop failures and water scarcity. Groundwater depletion adds another layer of concern. Unsustainable agricultural practices, coupled with reduced rainfall, have strained aquifers, leaving farmers with dwindling water resources. In some areas, wells have dried up entirely, forcing families to travel long distances for water. The agricultural economy of the Northeast, heavily dependent on monsoon winds, is at a critical juncture. Experts warn that if the current monsoon pattern persists, the region could face a severe crisis in agricultural production. Paddy cultivation, a lifeline for millions of farmers, is particularly vulnerable, with mid-July being a crucial period for sowing. A continued lack of rain could lead to widespread crop failures, exacerbating food insecurity and economic hardship.

The drought-like conditions have not only affected agriculture but also disrupted daily life in the region. Cracked fields, dry riverbeds, and dwindling water sources have created a sense of urgency among residents and policymakers. The opposition’s demand for declaration of a drought in Arunachal Pradesh reflects the growing concern over the crisis, with similar calls likely to emerge in Assam and Meghalaya if conditions do not improve. Farmers across the region are facing unprecedented challenges. In Assam, the sight of parched fields and burnt seedlings has become all too common, with traditional expectations of heavy monsoon rains replaced by prolonged dry spells. The tea industry, a major employer and economic driver, faces an uncertain future as water scarcity and rising temperatures threaten tea plantations.

As the Northeast grapples with this unexpected drought, urgent action is needed to mitigate its impact. Agricultural scientists and meteorologists are calling for adaptive measures, including the promotion of drought-resistant crops, improved irrigation systems, and water conservation practices. The government must also prioritize relief measures for affected farmers, including financial assistance and access to alternative water sources. The crisis underscores the need for long-term strategies to address the impacts of climate change. Investments in climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable water management, and renewable energy sources could help the region prepare for future challenges. Additionally, regional cooperation among Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh could facilitate coordinated efforts to tackle the drought and its consequences.

Climate change is the undeniable force behind these worsening conditions. Rising temperatures are increasing evapotranspiration rates, meaning even normal rainfall is less effective at sustaining soil moisture. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that South Asia, including Northeast India, will face more frequent and intense extreme weather events, from droughts to floods. The region’s vulnerability is comparable to Sub-Saharan Africa, where drought has long been a persistent challenge.

As the monsoon season progresses, all eyes are on the skies, with hopes that timely rains will alleviate the crisis. However, the current situation serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the region’s agricultural and economic systems in the face of climate change. Without immediate action, the Northeast’s reputation as a land of abundant rainfall may become a distant memory, replaced by the harsh reality of drought and water scarcity.

Addressing this crisis requires immediate and long-term measures. Short-term relief, such as water distribution and financial aid for farmers, is critical to support affected communities. However, sustainable solutions are equally vital. Expanding irrigation infrastructure, promoting drought-resistant crops, and improving groundwater management can reduce vulnerability. Reforestation and watershed conservation efforts could also help restore the region’s natural water cycles. On a broader scale, tackling climate change is essential. India’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy must be accelerated to mitigate the root causes of these extreme weather patterns. Regional cooperation, leveraging the Northeast’s strategic position near international borders, could also foster knowledge-sharing and resource allocation to combat climate impacts.