Ending Pakistan’s proxy war in Kashmir valley

India announcing a set of tough measures against Pakistan in response to the ghastly massacre of tourists at Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir by Pak-sponsored Islamist terrorists is the biggest diplomatic and economic strike and will push the neighbouring country to the edge. Apart from downgrading diplomatic ties, India has also decided to close the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari and hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism, which will cause severe economic pain to the neighbouring country. Official estimates show that total trade through the ICP Attari in 2023-24 stood at Rs 3,886 crore, with a total of 6,781 cargo movements, while passenger movement stood at 71,563. India’s items of export through the ICP, located 28 km from Amritsar city, include soyabeans, chicken feed, vegetables, red chillies, plastic granules and plastic yarn, while items of import include dry fruits, dry dates, gypsum, cement, glass, rock salt and herbs. India also imports onion and garlic from Afghanistan through Attari ICP, and there will be disruption in regional trade. The Cabinet Committee on Security decided that those who have crossed over with valid endorsements may return through the route before May 1. Following suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, India will be under no obligation to comply with design restrictions for building dams on the Indus River and its tributaries. Besides, a large number of farmers in Punjab and Sindh provinces in Pakistan are heavily dependent on water from Indus and its tributaries for farming, irrigation, potable water and any change in water flow regime during the sowing season due to construction of reservoir or reservoir flushing will result in severe water shortage in Pakistan. However, construction of large storage or dam reservoirs on the tributaries discharging Indus network water to these border provinces presents economic, logistics and environmental challenges for India and will take years for construction. As a result, the impact of the suspension of the treaty in the immediate and medium terms will not be felt much, but the move is bound to trigger apprehension among the people as inhabitants of lower riparian areas of the Indus network. India hopes that due to the apprehension of the impact of any disruption to the water flow regime in the long run, it will make the farmers and ordinary people in Pakistan dependent on water availability ensured by the treaty to mount pressure on the Pakistani government and Pak military establishments to stop sponsoring cross-border terrorism in India and prevent abrogation of the treaty by India as an extreme measure. Under the treaty India also shares flood data with Pakistan, and following suspension of the treaty, India will be under no obligation to share the data, and the absence of critical flood level data will pose a huge challenge for Pakistan for flood management. Bringing down strength of the High Commissions of both the countries, declaring Defence/Military, Naval and Air Advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi as Persona Non-Grata and giving them a week to leave India and India withdrawing its own Defence/Navy/Air Advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad, banning travel of Pakistani nationals to India under SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme and asking all Pakistani national currently leaving in India under this visa to leave with 48 hours have demonstrated India’s firm resolve to heavily downsize diplomatic ties with Pakistan and severe it completely if the hostile neighbour continues to provide its territory as launchpad for cross-border terrorism. The massacre of innocent tourists by bloodthirsty Islamist terrorists left the entire world in shock, and Pakistan’s futile efforts to wash its hands of it found no takers among world leaders. The world leaders could see through its evil conspiracy to sabotage the return of peace to the Kashmir Valley and significant decline in terrorism following the abrogation of Article 370 by backing terror groups in targeted killings of tourists so that the decline in tourist inflow leaves local Kashmiri youth with no livelihoods and becomes easy prey of Islamist terror outfits for recruitment. India closing its doors of diplomacy for Pakistan will further isolate it, but it is also important to rally behind peace-loving Kashmiri people who have come out to denounce the terror act and are demanding stern action against Pakistan so that overground cadres of the terrorist groups in Kashmir can be identified, isolated and brought to book. Apart from strengthening security measures along the Pakistan borders, India also needs to focus its attention on its borders with Bangladesh, as frustrated by stern actions taken by India, Pakistan is likely to leverage the growing ties with Bangladesh to use the country as a new launch pad for cross-border terrorism in states in Northeast and Eastern India. India must remain fully prepared to deal with emerging external threats from geopolitical changes in South Asia’s security landscape.