High-stakes poll battle in Assam

The battlelines have been drawn for the three-phase Lok Sabha polls in Assam, with the parties sounding their poll bugles and fielding the candidates for the first phase of polling scheduled for April 19. A huge turnout of supporters with candidates from both ruling and opposition parties during the nomination process indicates an intense poll battle is on the cards. More than the size of the poll crowd, it is the spontaneity of the participants that must not be missed for drawing the correct inference about the voters’ pulse. The situation on the ground will become clearer over the next one or two weeks as campaigning picks up across the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led ruling alliance has made development its key poll plank, banking on the support of lakhs of beneficiaries of flagship schemes of both the central and state governments. The opposition Congress and other parties have made the issues of unemployment, price rise, Scheduled Tribe status to six communities, Citizenship (Amendments) Act, 2019,  etc., their key poll planks. The mood in the ruling alliance is upbeat, with many Congress leaders and workers jumping ships to the BJP and its ally, Asom Gana Parishad. Whether it is going to result in the erosion of some of the of the more traditional support bases of the Congress in the state will be known only after polling is over and results are declared on June 4. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is leading the campaign of the ruling alliance, has also gone on record saying that his party would also leverage the campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls to prepare their ground for the 2026 assembly elections in the state. Such a professional approach helps the BJP spin the narrative for the electors that the party views every election seriously and prepares for it well ahead, and opposition parties are no match to its gruelling election machinery. The BJP has dropped five sitting Lok Sabha MPs in the state this time, which speaks volumes about the party going to poll with the topmost priority on the winnability of the candidates fielded. This is the reason behind the BJP fielding former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, who is currently a Union Cabinet Minister Sabha member, from Dibrugarh constituency despite being a sitting Rajya Sabha member, and dropping Union Minister Rameswar Teli, the sitting Lok Sabha MP, from the constituency. The Congress and some other opposition parties backing Assam Jatiya Parishad candidate Lurinjyoti Gogoi have made Dibrugarh a key constituency to watch for the pollsters. Both the former presidents of the All Assam Students’ Union, throwing their hats in the election ring, have triggered speculations over the role of present and past activists of the student body in the constituency vis-à-vis the issues raised by them. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Manoj Dhanowar joining the race has made it a triangular poll battle. Poll observers are curious to know if Dhanowar’s influence among tea garden workers who play a crucial role in the constituency will cause any dent in the BJP's stronghold among them and make the contest closer than anticipated. Two-time Congress MP and Lok Sabha Deputy Leader Gaurav Gogoi filing his nominations against sitting BJP MP Topon Kumar Gogoi has attracted the attention of the entire country in Jorhat constituency. Redrawing of the Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies in the Delimitation exercise carried out last year compelled Gogoi to try and win from Jorhat, from where his father, late Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, had once represented the state in the Lok Sabha. Party bigwigs from ruling and opposition alliances joining the campaign bandwagons of the two key contestants have pushed the Jorhat constituency to the centre stage of electoral discourse in Assam. The BJP swept the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, winning nine of the total 14 seats, including four of the five seats that are going to be polled in the first phase this time around. It swept the 2021 assembly elections too, with the majority of its 60 seats coming from upper Assam areas comprising these five Lok Sabha seats. The ruling party retaining these parliamentary seats is also crucial for its poll prospects in the 2026 assembly elections. The ruling party has exuded confidence by claiming that it is set to improve its tally but knows well that it cannot be complacent over past victories and needs a meticulous strategy to blunt the opposition campaign and deny them any ground in its strongholds in upper Assam. The Congress is pinning hopes on its alliances with two regional allies—AJP and Raijor Dal—to make a breakthrough, but the transfer of votes to the candidates of alliance partners is the toughest part of any pre-poll tie-up. The stakes are high for both the major ruling and opposition players in the first phase, as it will also set the poll mood for the second and third phases.