India, China and Russia: United by Trump’s tactics

Satyabrat Borah

(satyabratborah12@gmail.com)

Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. President has unleashed a geopolitical storm that few could have predicted. His aggressive trade policies and blunt diplomatic tactics, designed to assert American dominance, have instead sparked an unprecedented alignment among three historic rivals: India, China, and Russia. Far from isolating these nations, Trump’s heavy-handed approach has pushed them into a quiet but strategic coordination, potentially reshaping the global order in ways that could undermine U.S. influence. This seismic shift, driven by tariffs, threats, and a perceived double standard in Washington’s foreign policy, marks a turning point in international relations—one where old adversaries find common ground not out of friendship, but out of necessity.

The seeds of this realignment were sown in early 2025, when Trump, freshly returned to the White House, launched a bold economic offensive. His administration slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods, targeting one of America’s key partners in the Indo-Pacific. The stated reason was India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, which Trump labelled as enabling Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. In a characteristic flourish, he declared, “India is funding the enemy.” The move sent shockwaves through New Delhi, where policymakers viewed it as a betrayal. India, after all, has long been a strategic ally of the United States, with deepening ties in defence, technology, and trade. The U.S. is India’s largest export market, and the sudden tariffs threatened billions of dollars in trade, from textiles to pharmaceuticals.

What stung India even more was the hypocrisy embedded in Washington’s stance. While the U.S. condemned India’s oil imports from Russia, Western nations, including the U.S. and several European countries, quietly continued to purchase Russian uranium, palladium, and fertilisers. These imports, critical to their own economies, were conveniently overlooked, exposing a double standard that rankled Indian leaders. For a nation that prides itself on its strategic autonomy, a foreign policy doctrine that emphasises independence from great power blocs, this was a wake-up call. The message from Washington seemed clear: rules apply to some, but not to all. This eroded trust in the U.S. as a reliable long-term partner and pushed India to rethink its geopolitical calculus.

At the same time, Trump turned his sights on China, threatening 100% tariffs unless Beijing slashed its imports of Russian oil. China, already accustomed to U.S. trade wars from Trump’s first term, responded with defiance, accusing the U.S. of economic coercion. Suddenly, two of Asia’s giants, India and China, found themselves facing a common challenge: American pressure. Despite their fraught relationship, marked by the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash, the shared experience of U.S. tariffs created a rare moment of alignment. Both nations began to see their economic and strategic interests converging, not out of trust, but out of a pragmatic need to counter Washington’s strong-arm tactics.

Russia, watching this unfold, seized the opportunity to play matchmaker. Moscow has long floated the idea of a Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral, a concept first proposed in the early 2000s but largely dormant due to India-China tensions. Trump’s policies breathed new life into this idea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov began pitching the RIC as a counterweight to U.S.-led alliances like NATO and the Quad, the latter of which includes India alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia. For Russia, isolated by Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine, the prospect of closer ties with two of the world’s largest economies was a lifeline. China, ever pragmatic, saw potential in the arrangement. India, while cautious, didn’t dismiss it outright, a significant departure from its earlier reluctance to engage with the RIC framework.

This quiet coordination began to manifest in international forums. At summits like BRICS and the G20, India and China started to align their rhetoric, defending their right to import Russian oil and pushing back against U.S. narratives. For India, this was less about embracing China or Russia and more about asserting its sovereignty in the face of external pressure. New Delhi’s leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emphasized that India’s energy security depended on affordable oil imports, and Russia, with its discounted prices, was a critical supplier. In 2024, Russia accounted for nearly 38% of India’s oil imports, a figure that has only grown as Western sanctions tightened. For China, the world’s largest oil importer, Russian supplies were equally vital. Both nations, despite their differences, found themselves united in resisting what they saw as unfair U.S. demands.

The implications of this alignment are profound. Together, India, China, and Russia represent nearly 40% of the world’s population, significant economic heft, and formidable military capabilities. Their coordination, even if informal, challenges the U.S.-led global order. The RIC, if it gains traction, could evolve into a Eurasian power axis, not as a formal alliance but as a pragmatic coalition to counterbalance Western dominance. This is not a love triangle. India and China still eye each other warily across the Himalayas, and Russia’s ambitions often clash with both. But Trump’s policies have created a shared incentive to cooperate, transforming historical rivalries into strategic necessity.

Meanwhile, Trump’s broader foreign policy has only deepened the rift. His push for a Ukraine ceasefire, which sidelined European allies and dismissed the idea of restoring Ukraine’s full territorial integrity, raised eyebrows in capitals from Berlin to New Delhi. The proposal, seen as overly favourable to Moscow, further alienated India, which has maintained a delicate balancing act in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. New Delhi has avoided outright condemnation of Russia while advocating for peace, but Trump’s apparent willingness to concede ground to Putin without consulting partners like India underscored Washington’s unilateral approach. This move also strained U.S. relations with Europe, weakening the broader Western alliance and giving Russia more room to manoeuvre.

For India, the fallout from Trump’s policies has been particularly jarring. Over the past two decades, India and the U.S. had built a robust partnership, cemented by shared concerns about China’s rise and agreements like the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Deal. Trump himself had cultivated a personal rapport with Modi during his first term, with high-profile events like the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in 2019. But the tariffs and rhetoric of 2025 have undone much of that goodwill. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the tariffs “unjust and unwarranted”, while Modi vowed to protect Indian farmers, fishermen, and dairy producers from U.S. pressure to open markets. The refusal to compromise on agricultural and dairy trade has further strained bilateral ties, with India signalling it will not bow to economic coercion.

Adding to India’s frustration is Trump’s newfound cosiness with Pakistan, a long-time rival. Reports of U.S.-Pakistan talks on new oil exploration deals and closer military ties have raised alarm in New Delhi. For India, which has long viewed Pakistan as a security threat, this shift feels like a double betrayal—first the tariffs, now a pivot toward a regional adversary. This has pushed India closer to Russia, a decades-old partner that has supplied everything from oil to advanced weaponry like the S-400 missile system. The India-Russia relationship, already strong, has deepened as a hedge against U.S. unpredictability.

China, too, has capitalised on the moment. State media outlets like the Global Times have praised India’s independent foreign policy, a stark contrast to their usual criticism. In 2024, India and China reached a border agreement that allowed Indian troops to resume patrolling in key disputed areas, a small but significant step toward de-escalation. The reopening of the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage route and the reinstatement of tourist visas for Chinese citizens signal a cautious warming of ties. These developments, while modest, would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Trump’s tariffs have inadvertently given India and China a reason to talk, even if their dialogue is driven by pragmatism rather than trust.

The broader geopolitical landscape is shifting as a result. The RIC’s revival, even if embryonic, challenges the U.S.-centric world order. BRICS, which includes Brazil and South Africa alongside India, China, and Russia, is gaining prominence as a platform for the Global South to assert its voice. The group’s push for de-dollarisation and alternative financial systems, such as expanding the use of local currencies in trade, has gained momentum. India, while cautious about fully aligning with China or Russia, sees value in diversifying its economic and strategic options. The Quad, once a cornerstone of India’s Indo-Pacific strategy, now feels less certain as U.S. reliability wanes.

For the U.S., the consequences of Trump’s approach are becoming clear. His tariffs and threats were meant to assert dominance, but they have backfired, alienating allies and adversaries alike.

India, once a linchpin of U.S. strategy to counter China, is now exploring alternatives. China, already a rival, is finding new partners to challenge U.S. hegemony. Russia, emboldened by its growing ties with both, is positioning itself as a broker of this new Eurasian alignment. The result is a world where the U.S. risks losing influence, not because of military or economic weakness, but because of a failure to build trust.

This is not to say that India, China, and Russia are on the cusp of a grand alliance. Their differences, like border disputes, competing ambitions, and divergent systems, run deep. But Trump’s policies have created a rare moment where their interests align more with each other than with Washington. For India, this is a chance to assert its strategic autonomy and carve out a larger role on the global stage. For China, it’s an opportunity to weaken U.S. dominance. For Russia, it’s a lifeline to break out of isolation. Together, they are proving that heavy-handed pressure can backfire, pushing rivals into unexpected partnerships that could reshape the world for decades to come. As the dust settles, one thing is clear: Trump’s gamble has not isolated his targets; it has united them.