India looks west with purpose

Devika Dutta

(debika.dutta2015@gmail.com)

In an age of fractured supply chains, unstable energy markets and sharpening geopolitical rivalries, no serious nation can afford sentimental foreign policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to the United Arab Emirates reflected precisely that reality. Far from being another ceremonial diplomatic engagement, the visit underscored India's growing recognition that its economic future, energy security and geopolitical ambitions are deeply tied to stability and strategic partnerships in West Asia.

For decades, India's engagement with the Gulf remained narrowly transactional. The region supplied oil, absorbed Indian labour and sent remittances home. Beyond that, New Delhi often approached West Asia with excessive caution, ideological hesitation and diplomatic ambiguity. That approach has changed significantly over the past decade. India today no longer sees the Gulf merely as an energy source; it increasingly views it as a strategic theatre central to trade, connectivity, security and global influence.

The UAE occupies a particularly critical place within that transformation.

The numbers alone explain why the relationship matters. The UAE is India's third-largest trading partner after the United States and China. Bilateral trade touched nearly 85 billion dollars in 2024-25, rising sharply after the signing of the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Both countries now aim to push non-oil trade to 100 billion dollars before the end of the decade. The UAE is also among the top four foreign investors in India, with investments spanning ports, highways, logistics, renewable energy, real estate and digital infrastructure.

Equally significant is the Indian diaspora. Nearly 3.5 million Indians live and work in the UAE, forming one of the largest expatriate communities in the Gulf. Their contribution to the Indian economy remains enormous. India received more than 125 billion dollars in remittances in 2023, according to World Bank estimates, the highest globally, with Gulf countries accounting for a substantial share.

Yet the importance of Modi's UAE visit extends far beyond economics. Its real significance lies in the geopolitical moment in which it occurred.

West Asia today stands at the centre of global uncertainty. Continuing regional conflicts, tensions surrounding Iran, attacks on maritime shipping routes and fears of wider instability have made energy markets deeply volatile. For India, which imports roughly 87 per cent of its crude oil requirements, such instability is not a distant geopolitical concern; it directly affects inflation, industrial growth, transportation costs and fiscal stability.

This is why the energy agreements reached during the visit matter strategically. Cooperation on strategic petroleum reserves, crude storage and long-term energy supply arrangements strengthens India's capacity to withstand external shocks. India already stores part of its emergency crude reserves through collaboration with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). Expanding that partnership gives New Delhi greater insulation against sudden disruptions in global oil markets.

Critics of the government frequently dismiss such diplomatic engagements as exercises in political spectacle. According to this argument, Modi's foreign policy prioritises optics over substance. The criticism is politically convenient but analytically weak.

Diplomacy cannot be judged merely by televised visuals or partisan instinct. It must be judged by outcomes. Does it secure energy access? Does it attract investment? Does it expand geopolitical influence? Does it strengthen national security? By those standards, India's engagement with the UAE has produced measurable gains.

The opposition's criticism also carries the lingering mindset of an earlier era when India often approached West Asia with hesitation and moral posturing rather than strategic clarity. Modern geopolitics, however, leaves little room for such romanticism. Every major power today - whether the United States, China, Russia or the European Union - aggressively pursues influence in the Gulf because the region remains central to global energy flows, shipping corridors and financial networks. India cannot afford to behave differently.

Some critics further argue that India risks excessive dependence on Gulf energy producers. This argument ignores economic reality. India is now the world's fastest-growing major economy and the third-largest consumer of energy. Renewable energy expansion is necessary and already underway, but no credible economist believes India can abruptly detach itself from fossil fuel dependence without severe economic consequences. Until alternative energy systems become fully mature, stable Gulf partnerships remain indispensable. The defence and maritime dimensions of the UAE relationship are equally important. India and the UAE have steadily expanded their cooperation in counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, cybersecurity, and naval coordination. This represents a major strategic shift. India's Gulf policy was once overwhelmingly economic; it is now increasingly security-orientated.

That shift reflects changing geopolitical realities. Nearly 80 per cent of India's merchandise trade by volume moves through maritime routes. The Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean region have become zones of intense strategic competition involving piracy, drone warfare, extremism and great-power rivalry. Stronger maritime cooperation with trusted Gulf partners therefore directly serves India's long-term security interests.

One of the most remarkable aspects of India's current West Asia policy is its strategic balance. New Delhi today maintains strong ties simultaneously with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and the United States despite the competing interests among them. Few countries have managed this balancing act successfully. India's ability to do so reflects growing diplomatic confidence and strategic autonomy.

This marks a striking departure from the past. Earlier governments often appeared reactive and uncertain in dealing with West Asian complexities. India today is increasingly viewed as an independent power capable of engaging rival blocs without becoming trapped within their conflicts.

The economic dimension of the partnership also deserves careful attention. The UAE's growing investments in Indian infrastructure, ports, industrial corridors and logistics networks align closely with India's long-term development priorities. As global supply chains shift and companies seek alternatives to concentrated manufacturing dependence, India hopes to position itself as a major production and connectivity hub linking Asia, Africa and Europe.

The UAE can play a crucial role in that vision.

Projects involving ports, rail corridors and logistics connectivity between India, the Middle East and Europe could significantly reshape regional trade architecture over the coming decades. In the emerging world order, influence will belong not merely to countries with military strength but also to those capable of controlling supply chains, connectivity routes, digital systems, and investment networks.

Of course, diplomacy alone cannot guarantee success. India still faces bureaucratic delays, regulatory inconsistency and implementation challenges that frequently weaken ambitious projects. Agreements signed abroad must ultimately translate into results at home. The true test of diplomacy lies not in announcements but in execution. Nevertheless, the larger strategic direction is unmistakable. India's foreign policy has become more pragmatic, economically driven and geopolitically ambitious. The UAE partnership perfectly illustrates this transformation.

Modi's visit therefore should not be viewed as an isolated diplomatic exercise. It reflected India's broader recognition that in an unstable and multipolar world, national strength will increasingly depend on reliable partnerships, secure energy access, resilient trade corridors and strategic adaptability.

In the emerging global order, nations that fail to build such networks will remain vulnerable regardless of their size. India's expanding partnership with the UAE is ultimately about ensuring that it does not.