India-Pakistan tensions and Bangladesh’s anti-Indian stance: Safeguarding the Northeast

Chandan Kumar Nath

(The writer can be reached at chandankumarnath7236@gmail.com)

The spectre of conflict between India and Pakistan has once again cast a shadow over South Asia, with recent escalations signalling a volatile phase in their long-standing rivalry. Operation Sindoor, India's targeted missile strikes on May 7, 2025, against alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, have heightened tensions following the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists. As the two nuclear-armed neighbours exchange threats and counterstrikes, a new and alarming dimension has emerged: rising anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh, a country historically allied with India but now exhibiting concerning rhetoric. This development, coupled with vulnerabilities in India's Northeastern region, demands urgent attention from the central government to protect this strategically critical area.

The current India-Pakistan tensions stem from the Pahalgam attack, which India attributes to Pakistan-backed militant groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Operation Sindoor, described by Indian officials as "focused, measured, and non-escalatory", targeted nine terror sites, resulting in at least 31 deaths, according to Pakistani sources. Pakistan retaliated by claiming to have shot down five Indian jets and drones, escalating the situation further. The Atlantic notes that this conflict is distinct due to its potential to fuel extremism on both sides without a clear de-escalation path. The 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, which led to Bangladesh's creation, remains a historical touchstone, but today's dynamics are complicated by nuclear capabilities and regional alliances. While India and Pakistan have faced multiple conflicts over Kashmir since 1947, the current escalation is the most significant since 2019, when India struck Balakot in response to a suicide bombing. The naming of Operation Sindoor, evoking Hindu symbolism, has been criticised for inflaming religious tensions, with reports of assaults on Muslims across India following the Pahalgam attack. We cannot ignore the broader regional implications as both nations brace for potential retaliation, especially given Bangladesh's shifting stance.

Bangladesh, once a beneficiary of India's support during its 1971 liberation war, has recently exhibited a troubling anti-Indian sentiment that threatens regional stability. A provocative statement by Major General (Retd) A.L.M. Fazlur Rahman, a figure reportedly close to Bangladesh's interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, has raised alarm bells. Rahman suggested that Bangladesh should "capture all seven Northeastern Indian states" if India attacks Pakistan, reflecting a newfound belligerence. This rhetoric, amplified across social media platforms, indicates a growing alignment with Pakistan and a willingness to challenge India's territorial integrity. Several factors contribute to this shift. The interim government's perceived tilt toward Islamist elements, coupled with domestic political instability, has fostered an environment where anti-Indian narratives thrive. The Atlantic Council highlights Bangladesh's vulnerability to the spillover effects of the India-Pakistan conflict, noting that rising Islamist sentiment could be galvanised by the Kashmir issue. Demonstrations in Bangladesh, including the burning of effigies in protest of India's strikes on Pakistan, underscore this sentiment. Furthermore, the Bangladesh Cricket Board's strained relations with India, following India's likely cancellation of a planned tour, reflect broader diplomatic tensions. This anti-Indian rhetoric is particularly concerning given Bangladesh's 2,217-km border with India, much of which abuts the sensitive northeastern states. The reported push of 66 Indian nationals into Bangladesh by the Border Security Force through Khagrachhari suggests heightened border tensions, which could exacerbate regional insecurities. The central government must recognise that Bangladesh's provocative stance is not merely rhetorical but a potential precursor to destabilising actions, especially in the Northeast.

India's Northeastern region, comprising seven states-Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura-is a strategic and cultural mosaic that shares borders with Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, and Bhutan. The region's geographic isolation, ethnic diversity, and history of insurgencies make it uniquely vulnerable to external provocations. Rahman's statement about annexing the Northeast is not just inflammatory but taps into longstanding regional anxieties about sovereignty and security. The Northeast's proximity to Bangladesh amplifies the risks posed by anti-Indian sentiment. Tripura and Assam, which share significant borders with Bangladesh, are particularly exposed. The region's complex ethnic fabric, coupled with ongoing issues like illegal migration and cross-border smuggling, provides fertile ground for external actors to exploit. The 1971 war saw a massive refugee influx from East Pakistan into the Northeast, straining resources and altering demographics-a scenario that could repeat if tensions escalate. Moreover, China's border claims in Arunachal Pradesh and its growing influence in Bangladesh through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor add another layer of strategic complexity. Recent reports indicate that Assam's Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, has invoked the National Security Act against individuals expressing pro-Pakistan sentiments, signalling heightened vigilance. However, localised measures are insufficient. The Northeast's security requires a coordinated national strategy, especially given the region's critical role in India's Act East Policy and its connectivity to Southeast Asia through projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway.

The central government must adopt a multi-pronged approach to safeguard the Northeast amid the dual threats from Pakistan and Bangladesh. First, it should enhance border security along the India-Bangladesh frontier. The cancellation of police leaves in Punjab and school closures in border districts, as reported in West Bengal, provide a model for proactive measures. Deploying additional Border Security Force units, leveraging advanced surveillance technologies, and accelerating the fencing of the India-Bangladesh border are critical steps.

Second, the government must counter anti-Indian propaganda emanating from Bangladesh through diplomatic and informational strategies. Engaging with Bangladesh's interim government to curb inflammatory rhetoric, while reinforcing India's commitment to bilateral cooperation, could mitigate tensions. Simultaneously, public diplomacy campaigns targeting the Northeast's populace can foster unity and counter external narratives.

Third, the Northeast's internal security apparatus needs strengthening. The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, while controversial, may require reevaluation to address emerging threats, but its implementation must be balanced with community engagement to avoid alienation. Investments in infrastructure, education, and economic opportunities can address underlying grievances that make the region susceptible to external influence.

Finally, the government should prepare for humanitarian contingencies. The 1971 war's refugee crisis serves as a stark reminder of the Northeast's vulnerability to spillover effects. Establishing contingency plans for displaced populations, in coordination with state governments, is essential to prevent a repeat of past challenges.

The India-Pakistan conflict, while rooted in historical animosities, has taken on a new dimension with Bangladesh's anti-Indian rhetoric. The provocative suggestion of annexing India's northeastern states underscores the need for heightened vigilance in this strategically vital region. The central government must act decisively to bolster border security, counter propaganda, strengthen internal resilience, and prepare for contingencies. As South Asia navigates this precarious moment, India's ability to protect its Northeast will be a litmus test of its strategic foresight and national resolve. The time to act is now before rhetoric transforms into reality.