Kashmir situation today

 Udayan Hazarika

(udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)

The Union Home Minister has recently (March 28, 2024) announced in a media interview that the government is considering withdrawing the Armed Forces Special Powers (Jammu and Kashmir) Act 1990 from Jammu and Kashmir. Undoubtedly, this would be good news for the Kashmiris, who have been demanding the withdrawal of the Act for a long time. The Act was enacted in 1990 and brought into force in the same year, considering the deteriorating situation in the state. The provisions of the Act are similar to those of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1956, which is under implementation in the North-eastern States. Section 3 of the Act empowers the Governor of the State or the Central Government to declare any area or the whole of the State as a disturbed area by notification and call on the armed forces to help the civil administration restore law and order. The Act cited two basic reasons for such declarations. 1) terrorist activities in the area; and 2) secessionist activities threatening the sovereignty of the country. The power given to the armed forces under this Act to maintain law and order within the disturbed area is abundant, which also includes firing or even killing persons considered a threat to the law and order. The provisions of the Act were first implemented in Kashmir in the year 1990. Thereafter, in 2001, it was extended to Jammu as well. The Act is now in full force in both Jammu and Kashmir. The recent announcement made by the Union Home Minister has been under analysis in political circles, and mixed reactions have been expressed. People know very well that it is a political gimmick to win the confidence of the people, especially at a time when the general elections to the Look Sabha are approaching. People have welcomed this move as “better late than never.” Welcoming the decision, the PDP leader and chairman of the party said it should not be like “Jumelbaazi.” She also appealed to the government that, before clearing the withdrawal of the Act, the government should initiate the process of releasing the persons now in jail and withdrawing their cases.

Former Chief Minister and leader of the National Conference, Omar Abdulla, is sceptic about this announcement and says the party in power has been publicizing repeatedly that “the situation in Kashmir is normal, militancy has ended there, and now no separatist thought is there.” As such, the proposed step to end the term of AFSPA should be taken immediately. Terming the announcement as an “excellent idea,” People’s Conference chairperson Sajjad Lone has welcomed the announcement. The Union Government has also disclosed their plan to pull back the troops from Kashmir in a phased manner and hand over the task of maintaining law and order to the State Police. The Home Minister also expressed his confidence in the state police, saying that they are now leading the operations. As the general elections to the Lok Sabha are around the corner, the troops stationed in Kashmir will be required to be moved, even if for a shorter duration. The election schedule in Kashmir is prepared in such a manner that one phase goes to one constituency, thereby spreading over the whole seven phases for seven constituencies.

The people of Kashmir are happy otherwise, despite the fact that elections to the State Assembly have not been announced along with the elections to the Lok Sabha. However, the political circle is activated with the recent announcement of the Chief Election Commissioner of India about the EC’s agenda of holding polls in Kashmir soon. The long-awaited Kashmiri dream of having their own government is going to be realized soon after the Assembly polls are held in the state. Assuring about this, the CEC disclosed that the poll is tentatively scheduled immediately after the Lok Sabha elections are over.   It may be noted that this long wait has been for about seven years. The last poll in the state was held in 2014, when none of the parties had won a clear mandate. In the 87-member Assembly, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 28 seats, the BJP won 25 seats, the National Conference got 13 seats, and the Congress secured 12 seats. The political situation was such that none of the parties could come to terms to form a government for a considerable time. As a result, Governor’s Rule was imposed in the state on December 28, 2014. However, after a long discussion between the People’s Democratic Party and the BJP, the ball finally rolled in a positive direction, and both parties decided to form a government on the basis of some common minimum programme, and accordingly, Mufti Mahammad Sayed took over the charge of Chief Minister on March 1, 2015. This coalition government, however, was not going smoothly right from the beginning and finally broke down after the sudden death of Mufti within 10 months of his taking over the charge of the Chief Minister on January 7, 2016. This led to the re-imposition of governor’s rule in the state as the parties in coalition failed to nominate a leader. However, effort was on the part of the PDPs, and after hectic parleys with the BJP leaders in Delhi, finally Mehbooba Mufti took over the charge of the Chief Minister of the State on April 4, 2016. She became the first woman CM of the state. Even this coalition government could not last long. The differences between the coalition partners crop up after taking into account the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen Commander Burhan Wani in an encounter with the security forces in the Ananta Nag district in July 2018. This was followed by violent protests and the killing of about 85 civilians. The differences between the PDP and BJP widened with the passage of time, and the BJP finally pulled out of the coalition, forcing Mrs. Mahbooba to resign in June 2018. Thus, the coalition government lasted for only about two years, and the governor’s rule was re-imposed in the state. This rule continued until 2019, when the Union Government withdrew the special power conferred on Kashmir under Article 370 of the Constitution in the year 2019, and immediately thereafter, the Jammu Kashmir Reorganisation Act 2019 was enacted by the Parliament. The Act bifurcated the state into two union territories, namely Jammu and Kashmir being one part and Ladakh comprising Kargil and Leh on the other part. The Act provided that there shall be a legislative assembly with 107 members in Jammu and Kashmir, just like in Delhi, while there shall be no assembly in Ladakh, but the Lt. Governor of Jammu and Kashmir shall look after the affairs of Ladakh.

In 2021, the government constituted a delimitation commission for this Union territory. The Commission submitted its report with a suggestion to increase the assembly constituencies from the existing 107 to 114. The government accepted the proposals and accordingly notified the constituencies, enhancing the numbers of constituencies in Jammu from 37 to 43 and Srinagar from 46 to 47, leaving the remaining 24 seats for the POK until elections are held there after being taken over by the Indian Government. As per the 2011 census, the population of Jammu and Kashmir was only 53 lakhs, while the population of Sri Nagar was 68 lakhs. Thus, population-wise, for every assembly seat in Jammu, there will be 1.23 lakh people, while it will be 1.45 lakh for every seat in Sri Nagar. The state is now, in other words, ready for the much-expected elections to the legislative assembly. Political parties, irrespective of their ideologies, are all in favour of holding the election at the earliest possible time so as to restore a democratically elected government.