Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP’s strategic chess in Assam

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipaknewslive@gmail.com.)

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a decisive step in the run-up
to the 18th Lok Sabha elections by unveiling its initial roster of candidates on March 2. This move precedes the formal announcement of the election schedule, demonstrating the party’s strategic planning and eagerness to lead the political narrative.

In the inaugural list, the BJP has declared candidates for 195 constituencies nationwide, with a particular focus on Assam, where the party aims to contest 11 out of the 14 Lok Sabha constituencies. Notably, this initial roster includes 34 ministers, reflecting the party’s commitment to leveraging experienced leaders in the upcoming elections.

A key highlight of the candidate list is the inclusion of three chief ministers as nominees, signalling a strong endorsement of proven leadership within the party. Additionally, the BJP has prioritised the infusion of youth into its political ranks, with 47 candidates below the age of 50 securing a place on the inaugural list.

The political landscape in Assam is further shaped by a collaborative effort between the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), who have jointly resolved to participate in the Lok Sabha elections. This alliance aims to strengthen their position in Barpeta, Dhubri, and Kokrajhar, with each party nominating candidates strategically.

While the BJP has disclosed its candidates for 11 constituencies in Assam, the AGP and UPPL are yet to unveil their nominees for the three allocated constituencies. This creates an air of anticipation as political dynamics continue to unfold in the region.

Surprisingly, certain prominent figures like Rameswar Teli, Queen Oja, Pallab Lochan Das, Horen Sing Bey, and Dr. Rajdeep Roy, who currently hold positions as Minister of State in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Member of the Lok Sabha, and Member of Parliament, have not been nominated by the party. This decision adds an element of unpredictability to the electoral landscape.

Contrastingly, Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal, Bijuli Kalita Medhi, Ranjit Dutta, Amarsing Tisso, and Cabinet Minister Parimal Suklabaidya have been nominated by the BJP, reinforcing their commitment to field strong candidates in key constituencies. As the political chessboard takes shape, the BJP’s nomination of Parimal Suklabaidya for Silchar and Kamakhya Prasad Tasa for the newly created Kaziranga constituency adds strategic depth to their electoral strategy. Notably, the party has selected MLA and former minister Ranjit Dutta as its nominee for the Sonitpur constituency.

The upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Assam hold significance as the BJP seeks to build on its previous success, having secured victory in 9 out of the 14 seats in the last elections. The Congress, with triumphs in three seats, faces internal strife that adds an element of uncertainty to constituencies like Nagaon, Karimganj, and Dhubri.

The BJP’s meticulous unveiling of candidates in Assam sets the stage for a riveting electoral battle. The strategic alliance with AGP and UPPL, the emphasis on youth leadership, and the careful selection of candidates underscore the party’s commitment to securing a strong mandate in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. As the political narrative unfolds, Assam becomes a focal point for political observers, anticipating the outcomes in this dynamic and evolving landscape. The political landscape of Assam is set for a historic transformation as the Election Commission designates new constituencies for the upcoming 18th Lok Sabha elections. With the ruling coalition holding sway in all but three constituencies, namely Dhubri, Nagaon, and Karimganj, the state braces for intense political battles that could reshape its political narrative.

In the previous Lok Sabha elections, the Nagaon constituency witnessed a closely contested battle between the Congress and BJP. Pradyut Bordoloi of the Congress emerged victorious with 49.53% of the overall vote share, while the BJP’s Rupak Sarmah secured 48.40%. The AIUDF’s influence, particularly among Muslim voters, adds a layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics. The BJP’s Suresh Borah aims to capitalise on potential divisions among the Muslim votes to secure victory.

Similarly, in the Karimganj constituency, BJP’s Kripanath Mallah faces the challenge of maintaining his winning streak. The rise in the prominence of Islamic voters adds a unique dimension to the electoral dynamics, making Mallah’s victory contingent on the distribution of votes between the AIUDF and Congress candidates.

Dhubri, a constituency witnessing a surge in votes due to recent redetermination, remains a stronghold for Badruddin Ajmal of the AIUDF. The BJP, considering withdrawal in favour of the AGP, acknowledges the formidable presence of Ajmal, who has exerted influence over the district for two decades. The AGP, with its organisational strength, poses a challenge to the ruling Unity Forum candidate in the constituency. The political scenario in Kokrajhar is marked by the anticipated formidable opposition faced by Independent MP Naba Kumar Saraniya. The UPPL, in alliance with the BJP and AGP, stands poised for victory, challenging the incumbent BPF candidate. The Congress, grappling with eroding support among indigenous communities, faces the prospect of a substantial setback in the upcoming elections.

The electoral landscape in Assam is characterised by strategic alliances, shifting voter demographics, and the continuous evolution of political dynamics. As parties strategize and candidates position themselves, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Assam promise to be a riveting spectacle, with each constituency presenting its own unique set of challenges and opportunities. The state’s political future hangs in the balance, awaiting the verdict of the electorate in this crucial electoral exercise.