Mandatory challenger
The 2021 Assembly elections in Assam are poised to witness an
intense battle with the new regional party Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) throwing
its hat in the ring. The election of Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the former general
secretary of the All Assam Students' Union (AASU) as the president of the new
party was on expected lines. The AJP, backed by the AASU and the Asom
Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), has also announced plans to unite
all regional parties who are not in alliance with the ruling Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) or the opposition Congress and All India United Democratic Front
(AIUDF). This has paved the way for a likely pre-poll alliance or seat sharing
between the AJP and the Raijor Dal, another new regional party formed at the
behest of the Akhil Gogoi-led Krishak Mutki Sangram Samiti (KMSS) and allied
organizations. Through one of the 19 resolutions adopted in its first political
convention which concluded in Sivasagar on Thursday, the AJP demanded release
of Akhil Gogoi. The KMSS leader arrested during the agitation against the
Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 last year is also urging the regional parties
opposed to BJP and Congress-AIUDF to unite. Several prominent leaders and
workers deserting the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a constituent of the BJP-led
ruling coalition and joining the AJP has helped the AJP expand its footprint in
just a few months of its formation. If the two new regional parties are able to
clinch a deal it may cause further erosion in the AGP.
The weakened AGP will shatter BJP's dream of winning 100 plus seats in the Assembly polls which has made the saffron party eye some of the seats won by the regional party in 2016. Emergence of the new regional party has also reversed the trend of AGP leaders and workers joining the saffron party after poll debacles of the regional party in 2011 Assembly polls. This new trend should be a cause of concern for the BJP. It is the combined vote bases of the coalition partners -AGP, BJP, BPF and political forces of Tiwa, Rabha and the Mishing communities which helped the BJP to increase its tally from only five seats won in 2011 to 60 seats in 2016 and capture power at Dispur with the support of the two regional parties. The political line of the new regional parties has dashed opposition Congress hope for a grand alliance of all non-BJP parties. Leadership tussle, internal squabbling in the state and reluctant party leadership at the national level has made Congress a sinking ship in Assam too. The BJP has not left any stone unturned for consolidation of the party organization even in stronghold of its allies and is also looking at desertion of the opposition party by some disgruntled leaders. The support which the new regional parties have drawn is sure to throw up a serious challenge to the ruling coalition.
In Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) which accounts for 12 Assembly seats, the BJP has found a new ally in United People's Party, Liberal (UPPL) and the two parties with the support of the Gana Surakha Party have captured power at the new Bodoland Territorial Council. The new political equation has created room for the AJP to explore a pre-poll tie-up with the BPF which has been dumped by the BJP in the BTC polls. However, the BPF and the BJP are yet to snap ties at Dispur and both the parties are maintaining that the alliance between them was till 2021. The state BJP leadership is not keen to continue the alliance with the BPF as it wants to increase it own numbers in the Assembly and therefore contest in some of the 12 seats in BTR. The BPF is not keen to let its allies contest these seats which has given rise to the new political equations. However, the BPF by emerging as the single largest party in the latest BTC polls has succeeded in showcasing its popularity in BTR which has made the BJP hold the cards close to its chest on choosing its electoral ally between BPF and UPPL for the 2021 Assembly polls. If the BPF continues its alliance till the Assembly polls, technically the BJP will be having alliance with both Bodo political parties. This will make it difficult for AJP or the Raijor Dal to forge any pre-poll tie-up with either UPPL or BPF as both the new regional parties have announced not to have alliance with regional parties which are in alliance with BJP, Congress and AIUDF. With sizable Bodo voters in many Assembly constituencies outside BTR areas, the support of the Bodo political parties is crucial in state Assembly polls. Political manoeuvring skills of the leaders of the new regional parties will be put to test by such political jigsaw.