Nepal Unrest Cloud over India’s Neighbourhood First Policy

Violent protests by Gen Z in Nepal leading to the ouster of the incumbent regime in that country, nearly a year after a similar uprising in Bangladesh led to the ousting of the Sheikh Hasina government, have clouded bilateral and multilateral projects pushed under India’s Neighbourhood First policy. The Northeast region is central to this and the Act East policy, and political stability in the neighbouring countries is crucial to expedite projects initiated by India to unlock the trade and commerce commercepotential of the region. The turbulent political situation in Myanmar following the military coup leading to the ouster of the democratically elected civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021 has already delayed critical connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway project. Now, Nepal grappling with a fresh bout of political unrest and uncertainty is a worrisome development for India, more so for the northeast region. The prevailing situation in all three key neighbouring countries has strategic implications which require India to take a cautious approach. A key multilateral initiative in the form of a subregional architecture – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) – for establishing an economic corridor among these four nations is now trapped in uncertainty. The BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) signed in 2015 triggered the hope of seamless movement of passenger, personal and cargo vehicles in the four countries through the northeast region. In 2022, India, Nepal and Bangladesh finalised the Memorandum of Understanding to be signed for operationalisation of the MVA, while Bhutan kept itself out from operationalisation of the agreement but agreed to operationalisation in the other three countries. The Nepal Army has stepped in for restoration of law and order in the absence of political leadership in the aftermath of Nepalese Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli stepping down and several of his ministers quitting after violent protests claimed 22 lives and left scores injured. The restoration of democracy in Bangladesh and Nepal will be crucial for operationalisation of the BBIN MVA and accelerating bilateral and multilateral projects, but India will also have to constantly watch the political developments in the two neighbouring countries and their strategic and security implications along the Chicken Neck corridor for safeguarding the northeast region from any external threats. While the unjustified and unreasonable tariff of 50% imposed by the United States on India for purchasing Russian oil brought India and China closer, the strategic interests of the two countries do not match, which will require India to continue balancing its strategic interest in the region with recalibration of diplomatic ties with neighbouring countries. India has demonstrated its capability to fine-balance the two in Myanmar by skilfully navigating the turbulent trough when armed conflict between the military junta and rebel forces escalated and precipitated the political situation in that country. The central government departments and the states fast-tracking the connectivity projects within the northeast region are crucial to convince the neighbouring countries, irrespective of regime change, to realise the critical importance of the region as a crucial hub of economic activities. The northeast region attracting huge industrial investment and interests sends out a message to the neighbouring countries that by facilitating the various projects pushed by India for inclusive growth and development in South and Southeast Asia, the countries stand to gain more. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to inaugurate the Bairabi-Sairang railway line connecting Mizoram capital Aizawl. India, by putting Mizoram, which has borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh, on the Indian railway network, has demonstrated its commitment to making the northeast region the new hub of economic activities in the Asian landscape and that its foreign policy in the neighbourhood is anchored on deepening ties and mutual benefit through increased trade, commerce and people-to-people engagement. These projects are not merely diplomatic overtures to deepen bilateral ties and strengthen multilateral subregional groupings but are critical to India securing its strategic interests in the region but with a broader outlook of inclusive development of its friendly neighbouring countries. Nevertheless, India can least afford to overlook the rise of Islamic radical forces in Bangladesh and the demographic threat to indigenous communities in Assam and other states in the northeast region posed by the infiltration of illegal Bangladeshi migrants. Strengthening border security, intensifying detection of infiltrators and their expulsion, and continuing the busting of sleeper cells of Bangladesh-based Islamic radical and militant outfits in the region parallel to infrastructure and connectivity projects and bilateral and multilateral projects under the Neighbourhood First and Act East policies areurgent necessities. Giving equal priority to both requires India to carefully recalibrate its foreign policy initiatives with a focus on the northeast region so that strategic safeguards of indigenous people in the region are effectively built into the strategy and approach towards the bilateral and multilateral projects initiated and executed under the Neighbourhood First and Act East policies