Opposition in pieces, BJP battle-ready: Assam’s political landscape

Ashfaq Choudhury

(The author is an independent journalist and student at University of Leeds, UK)

Assam’s political theatre is entering a decisive phase ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. On one side stands the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), fortified by its organisational discipline, electoral machinery, and a leadership that has consolidated power at multiple levels. On the other side is an opposition camp struggling to find both unity and a narrative strong enough to challenge the BJP’s dominance.

Since coming to power in 2016, the BJP has steadily expanded its influence in Assam, not only winning successive Assembly elections (2016 and 2021) but also building a formidable grassroots presence. The party has made deep inroads into both the Brahmaputra Valley and the Barak Valley. Its growth has not been accidental but the result of sustained organisational work, aggressive messaging, and strategic use of central government resources.

The leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has only tightened this grip. Sarma, once a Congress leader, has positioned himself as a decisive leader who combines administrative acumen with sharp political instincts. His government mixes development rhetoric, such as promises of new medical colleges, roads, and foreign investments, with hardline positions on identity and migration. He has also managed to project himself not just as a state leader but as one with influence in Delhi, further enhancing his stature.

Take, for instance, the state’s eviction drives in areas like the Paikan Reserve Forest area of Goalpara, which sparked national controversy. While critics condemned them as targeting minorities, Sarma defended the moves as necessary to protect “indigenous land rights”. Similarly, his government’s push for stricter interfaith marriage regulations is seen by supporters as preserving Assamese and Hindu identity but by opponents as part of a divisive communal agenda. These moves, whether one agrees with them or not, have cemented Sarma’s image as a leader who “takes tough decisions”, a narrative that appeals to a large section of Assam’s electorate, particularly those who feel threatened by demographic changes.

If the BJP’s strength lies in its cohesion, the Congress’s weakness lies in its fragmentation. Once the natural party of governance in Assam, having ruled for decades under leaders like Hiteswar Saikia and Tarun Gogoi, the party today finds itself shrinking, both organisationally and electorally. Its grassroots networks, once strong, are now skeletal.

Congress’s vote share has steadily declined, and defections have hollowed out its ranks. Himanta Biswa Sarma himself was the most high-profile exit, but scores of other MLAs have followed over the years, eroding the party’s legislative clout. While Gaurav Gogoi, son of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, has tried to revive the party’s fortunes with a mix of youth leadership and sharp attacks on the government’s alleged corruption and communal politics, the Congress has yet to translate rhetoric into revival. Without a compelling vision or organisational muscle to match the BJP’s booth-level committees, Congress risks further electoral decline.

Factionalism, leadership tussles, and a lack of ground-level presence continue to plague its efforts. The state unit is often caught between the high command’s directives from Delhi and local leaders’ ambitions, leaving the party confused on strategy. For younger voters, Congress increasingly appears as a party of the past rather than a force of the future.

The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), once the torchbearer of Assamese sub-nationalism born out of the 1985 Assam Accord, today survives as a junior partner in the BJP-led alliance. Once the ruling party under leaders like Prafulla Mahanta, AGP’s role has shrunk drastically. Its dependence on the BJP for relevance has hollowed out its independent voice. For instance, while the AGP historically opposed the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), its ministers in the current government have muted their criticism, unable to break ranks with the BJP. This contradiction has raised questions about whether AGP is truly a stakeholder in Assam’s future or merely a relic of its past.

Smaller parties like the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dol, born out of the anti-CAA protests of 2019–20, sought to channel indigenous anger into political power. Leaders like Lurinjyoti Gogoi (AJP) and Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dol) emerged as prominent voices, especially among the youth and civil society groups. Their rhetoric resonated strongly during protest movements, but in the 2021 elections, both parties fell short of expectations, winning only one seat between them. While they continue to influence student bodies and activist movements, translating street mobilization into electoral performance has remained elusive. In fact, their presence often splits the anti-BJP vote, inadvertently benefitting the ruling party.

Beyond parties, another factor shaping Assam’s politics is the BJP’s ability to control the narrative. Through a mix of welfare schemes, identity politics, and aggressive communication, the ruling party has been able to reach both rural and urban voters. Direct benefit transfers, new infrastructure projects, and targeted messaging on protecting Assamese culture have kept many sections of the electorate aligned with the BJP, even if they are dissatisfied with certain policies.

The opposition, meanwhile, struggles not only with numbers but also with coherence. Without a shared strategy, a common minimum programme, or even basic seat-sharing arrangements, the anti-BJP space in Assam looks more like a patchwork quilt than a movement. Congress and smaller regional outfits have failed to project a joint leadership or alternative vision that could inspire confidence among voters.

As Assam heads toward the next Assembly elections, the writing on the wall is clear: the BJP is united, disciplined, and battle-ready. The opposition, in contrast, is divided, disorganised, and struggling for relevance. If this imbalance persists, the 2026 election could become less a contest and more a reaffirmation of BJP’s dominance.

For democracy to function with real checks and balances, Assam needs a stronger opposition. The challenge for Congress, AJP, and other players is not just to survive but to reinvent themselves. Unless they can come together on issues of governance, rights, and identity with clarity and conviction, the BJP’s hold over Assam will only deepen, cementing not just its electoral dominance but its narrative dominance as well.