Pressing the reset button on India-Bangladesh ties

The resumption of the Agartala-Dhaka-Kolkata bus service on a trial basis has signalled that there is a break in the cloud after the installation of the Tarique Rahman-led new government in the neighbouring country. Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka Pranay Verma calling on the new Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman and conveying to him about India looking forward to engaging with the newly elected government speaks volumes about fresh initiatives by India for strengthening the bilateral ties between the two neighbouring countries. These developments speak volumes about cautious optimism over the normalisation of the bilateral relations. India continuing to focus on expeditious commissioning of the Kaladan multimodal project via Sittwe Port in Myanmar remains important to prevent any fresh political uncertainty in Bangladesh from clouding India’s strategic requirement of seamless connectivity between its northeast region and the rest of India through an alternative route in the event of any exigency at the narrow Siliguri Corridor. Installation of the new government after the Bangladesh Nationalist Party won a two-thirds majority in the general elections held on February 12 marked the end of the rule of the interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus, during which the relations between India and Bangladesh dipped as attacks on religious minorities in Bangladesh continued unabated. Rising anti-India rhetoric and threats by anti-India elements to cut off the northeastern region during the interim regime and Yunus’ provocative reference to the northeastern region as “landlocked” while making an economic pitch to China to invest in Bangladesh and pushing for a regional economic plan involving India’s “seven sisters”—Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh—precipitated the situation. India’s message to Bangladesh is unambiguous: its choice to strengthen the bilateral ties is independent of regimes in Bangladesh as long as democracy remains strong and inclusive and the neighbouring country continues to pursue the path of progress. Nevertheless, the former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina taking shelter in India is likely to remain a persistent diplomatic challenge. Resumption of visa service at the Bangladesh Assistant High Commission in Agartala, after remaining suspended for nearly two months, has triggered hopes for uninterrupted bus services between Agartala and Kolkata via Dhaka. As the distance along this route is only 500 km compared to the 1600 km long Agartala-Kolkata route via Siliguri, the restoration of the bus service has great economic significance for Tripura and other neighbouring states in the northeast region. Uninterrupted bus services through Dhaka will boost confidence in exploring the operationalisation of regular passenger and freight services on the Agartala-Akhaura railway line. Political turmoil in Bangladesh delayed the final commissioning and safety inspections even though the trial run on the strategic cross-border rail link was conducted in 2023, when it was virtually inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. India’s Neighbourhood First Policy provides a transparent foreign policy approach for managing its relations with countries in its immediate vicinity, i.e., Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The policy is aimed at enhancing physical, digital, and people-to-people connectivity across the region, as well as augmenting trade and commerce. Bangladesh, under the newly elected regime, adopting a clear, transparent foreign policy towards India will be critical in deepening bilateral ties. Strained relations between India and Bangladesh also delayed the operationalisation of the Motor Vehicle Agreement in the member countries of the BBIN sub-region (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) for facilitating seamless cross-border vehicular movement. India holds the view, clearly explained by the Ministry of External Affairs in its submission to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, that projects like the India-Bangladesh rail and road links and energy cooperation are crucial for regional integration, and Bangladesh’s location in the Bay of Bengal makes it strategically important for India’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. Other key submissions made by MEA before the parliamentary panel are: Both countries have a shared interest in confronting threats from extremist groups operating in the region, including those with links to transnational terrorist networks. The border between the two countries presents challenges related to illegal immigration, smuggling, and cross-border crimes. Combating these challenges in addition to having secure maritime routes in the Indian Ocean is important for preserving vital trade and economic links. It further informed the committee that Bangladesh is also geographically located at the centre of South Asia’s convergence with Southeast Asia, and its strategic location can play a role in ensuring access of the sea to the landlocked northeastern part of India. For the northeast region, the demographic threat to indigenous people posed by unabated illegal migration from Bangladesh remains a serious threat, as illegal migrants who have already settled harbour the fresh migrants. Efforts to strengthen bilateral ties, including sincere efforts to find a permanent solution to vexed illegal migration from Bangladesh into the northeast region, remain crucial for the sustainability of the ties and the security of the region.