Rising risks of Assam’s rain-fed farmers

Marginal decline in Net Sown Area in Assam is reflective of climate change vulnerabilities in the state's agriculture sector. With nearly 87% of the Net Sown Area in the state being rain-fed, drastic change in rainfall pattern due to climate change calls for addressing irrigation shortfall in the state on an urgent priority basis. Rice is a staple food for 90% of the population of the state; the state remaining self-sufficient in rice production is critical to its food security. Decrease in Net Sown Area is also indicative of withdrawal of farm families from their primary livelihood and shifting to new livelihood opportunities. The rural population accounts for 86%, which is much higher than the national average of 69%, and if agricultural distress caused by climate change impact is left unaddressed, it runs the risk of increasing rural-to-urban migration of people within the state as construction workers, service sector employees, gig workers or in search of other livelihood opportunities. Guwahati is already saturated with migrant population, and other towns have not witnessed growth at the same pace, due to which there is little scope of various towns pulling away migrant population from Guwahati. Studies conducted by the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development show that while the state falls under the assured rainfall zone, 87% of its Net Sown Area is rain dependent. The impact of climate change-induced extreme weather events has increased the vulnerabilities of rain-dependent farmers. The state government has confirmed in the ongoing state assembly session that twin factors of rising atmospheric temperature and reduced rainfall have precipitated drought-like situations in several parts of the state, creating sustainability challenges for rain-fed rice farming. The distribution of seeds of flood- and drought-resistant rice varieties developed by Assam Agriculture University among farmers is a strategy adopted to overcome the challenge of climate change-induced problems in rain-fed rice cultivation. While such seeds can tolerate stress to a higher limit compared to seeds of traditional varieties, without assured irrigation support the plants will not withstand erratic rainfall and drought-like conditions.  The unpredictability of erratic rainfall adds to farmers' worries, and crop failure resulting from the combined effects of a lack of assured irrigation and an increase in extreme weather events increases their vulnerability. A comprehensive solution of assured irrigation, crop insurance, access to institutional farm credit, and deployment of smart and mechanised farming is crucial to ensure that the strategy of distribution of stress-tolerant seeds is truly result-orientated and capable of bringing about a transformative change to help farmers adopt climate-resilient farming practices. Persistence of delay in settlement of crop insurance claims and delay in submission of yield data point towards a critical gap which needs to be addressed to increase resilience of farmers against crop loss due to flood, erosion, and drought-like conditions which have been precipitated by a rise in extreme weather events in recent years. The irrigation coverage remaining continually poor despite the state being endowed with a vast network of rivers, wetlands and plenty of groundwater is a striking paradox. This speaks volumes about the lack of priority in increasing irrigation coverage and the systemic gap in the implementation of irrigation schemes. The failure on the part of policymakers to put irrigation at the centre of agriculture policy implementation is baffling given the harsh reality that agriculture in most areas is rain-dependent. If this primary problem remains unaddressed, the climate vulnerabilities of farmers in the state will further increase even after the development and introduction of climate-resilient varieties. The scope of expansion of net sown area is limited given the population pressure and vast tracts of land being eroded away by the Brahmaputra and its tributaries every year. Increasing cropping intensity remains the prudent strategy to increase productivity. Apart from addressing climate change impact challenges such as the distribution of stress-tolerant seeds and the adoption of smart farming techniques such as mechanised farming, solar-powered irrigation systems are vital to check further decline in Net Sown Area. The vulnerabilities of farmers cannot be addressed through mere implementation of schemes and projects if participation of farmers in these lacks spontaneity. Instead of looking at farmers as passive beneficiaries of the schemes and projects, adoption of participatory governance is crucial to ensure participation of farmers as equal stakeholders. For farmers to develop a sense of ownership in such schemes and projects, it is essential that these are not executed as administrative exercises but are subjected to rigorous consultation processes for necessary changes to adopt those to local needs. There is no scope for complacency that the decline in Net Sown Area is marginal. The challenges posed by climate change impact are too real to be ignored. Statistics of surplus production and higher procurement must not be allowed to overshadow the prime challenges of rain-dependent farmers. Assam needs to address the vulnerabilities beneath the abundance.