Shifting the EV Gear

India’s progress in transitioning from fossil fuel vehicles to electric vehicles (EV) is noticeable but is incremental. The EV share of total vehicle sales in the country has increased to about 8% over the past ten years, and it has just five years to scale it up to 30%, which is a daunting target. Inadequacy of charging infrastructure is flagged as a major impediment in the country’s aspirational goal of decarbonising the transport sector and gaining the desired pace. The policies towards EV infrastructure, including vehicle manufacturing, replacement, and charging ecosystems, have provided momentum in EV sales, but the approach, primarily being car-centric, has failed to impact much in the overall transport sector. A stakeholder consultation held under the aegis of the NITI Aayog has rightly emphasised that targeting trucks and buses for EV transition will push the country closer to its goal. The NITI Aayog’s report “Unlocking a $200 Billion Opportunity: Electric Vehicles in India” highlights that highway trucks and buses constitute only 4% of the total vehicle fleet but are responsible for more than 50% of carbon emissions in the transport sector. Besides, these vehicles require charging facilities only at concentrated locations, while personal cars require charging facilities across the highway to overcome range anxiety. Therefore, prioritising charging infrastructure for trucks and buses over cars will have a greater impact on reducing emissions and achieving core climate goals in the transport sector. Overprioritising cars in the aspirational EV adoption goals cannot accelerate the pace of transition. Channelising the resources towards building heavy charging infrastructure for large segment vehicles that travel long distances is a more pragmatic option. The roadmap followed so far is dominated by heavily investing in building charging infrastructure at shorter intervals, aiming to end range anxiety of private car owners so that market sentiment for EVs grows. The cost of fuel influences the purchase decision of private car owners in the country, and the incremental increase in EV car adoption is indicative of this sentiment despite high upfront costs after the charging infrastructure started growing in cities. The NITI Aayog’s report points out that while 75% of Indian vehicles are two-wheelers, only 13% of vehicles are cars, which explains why prioritising two-wheelers will have a far greater impact in terms of emission. However, from the point of view of decongesting city roads, increasing EV buses for pollution-free transport is a wiser choice than encouraging increasing EV sales of two-wheelers or personal cars. It requires mainstreaming EV adoption for public transport in the city’s Master Plan. Guwahati is a fit candidate for shifting the focus of EV adoption away from small vehicles to city buses. Increasing the number of green buses in the capital city is a correct policy decision, but the number of EV buses must increase substantially to reduce the traffic of two-wheelers and personal cars. Policy consistency is crucial for owners of private city buses, as they invest heavily by taking bank loans to buy new buses which must operate profitably to sustain. Increasing the strength of the fleet of EV buses for operation in the city under Assam State Transport Corporation will help achieve faster emission reduction and reduce traffic congestion, provided the services provided by these buses are efficient. For passengers, apart from comfort of travel, less travel is a key consideration that influences whether they will opt for a personal mobility solution of a two-wheeler or a personal car or prefer to travel by bus. A key recommendation included in the report is that a good initiative to prompt faster transition would be to pick 5 cities where 100 percent of the buses, three-wheelers and urban freight vehicles can become electric in the next 5 years, which can then be scaled up to 20 cities in 10 years. Such incremental changes will not take the country anywhere near its aspirational goals in EV adoption and emission reduction, as the number of cars and two- and three-wheelers will only grow exponentially in other cities during the five years to cater to the rising population, particularly in growing capital cities and other urban growth centres in the Northeast region. Faster growth of fossil fuel vehicles will offset the limited gains made through EV adoption even when government continues to support EV adoption by subsidising vehicle and battery costs. For the roadmap to translate into realities, policies formulated must aggressively push for subsidising EV adoption in heavy vehicle segments – buses in the cities and trucks and long-distance buses along the highways – so that emission reduction is also prioritised along with faster mass transport of passengers. The region is heavily dependent on supply of essentials brought by trucks from other regions, which has grown substantially in the recent period due to rise in demand; the emission level in the transport sector has also alarmingly increased. Prioritising the region in changing policies for EV transition is crucial for safeguarding the ecological integrity of the Northeast.