Signals from Bangladesh

The current political turmoil in Bangladesh significantly impacts Northeast India in many ways. Such has been the extent of anti-India feelings in Dhaka that while one Hindu was burnt alive in the Bangladesh capital last week, some elements have even threatened to sever the Northeast from the rest of India. These include exacerbation of existing security and demographic challenges, disruption of vital trade and connectivity, and threats to regional stability through potential refugee influxes and extremist infiltration. It also has the potential of straining the porous border and hindering crucial infrastructure projects like power and transport links essential for the Northeast’s development, forcing greater vigilance and diplomatic engagement to manage crises like illegal immigration and potential shifts in strategic alliances. The Northeast shares a long, porous border with Bangladesh. This makes the region highly susceptible to instability, especially regarding illegal migration, which in turn can strain resources and ignite ethnic tensions in states like Assam, Tripura, and Meghalaya. Political unrest in Bangladesh risks increasing refugee flows, disrupting delicate demographics. This again has the potential to allow extremist elements to find safe havens, challenging India’s internal security and jeopardizing the crucial Siliguri Corridor. A shift in Dhaka’s alignment, potentially leaning towards China or Pakistan, poses strategic challenges for India, which already contends with hostile neighbours. China’s growing economic investments and the Belt and Road Initiative in Bangladesh could create strategic pressure, potentially limiting India’s access to the Northeast through the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor. The rise of religiously motivated groups raises fears of increased extremism, potentially providing safe hubs for India-focused terrorist groups. A stable Bangladesh is vital for Northeast India’s economic aspirations, as many development projects rely on Bangladeshi transit and cooperation for trade and connectivity. Instability and a potential shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy threaten to slow or halt crucial infrastructure initiatives, including rail links, power projects (like Tripura-Bangladesh), and the development of deep-sea ports, hindering the Northeast’s integration with India and the global economy. The crisis tests India’s neighbourhood strategy, forcing it to manage security concerns while navigating a potential shift in Bangladesh’s strategic orientation, possibly towards more radical forces or even Pakistan. A less India-friendly government could reduce cooperation on insurgent issues and river water management (like the Teesta), undermining historical ties and creating a less predictable geopolitical environment for India’s Northeast. Beyond security, the social fabric of the Northeast faces pressure from potential migration and heightened ethnic sensitivities. The economic fallout, including disruptions to tourism and trade from Bangladesh, can also negatively impact the border communities and businesses. This highlights the deep interconnectedness and shared destiny between Northeast India and its eastern neighbour. Managing this crisis requires delicate diplomacy, sustained engagement, and proactive measures to ensure regional peace and the Northeast’s continued development. New Delhi should not remain a silent spectator. It is significant that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting the region at a time when all kinds of negative vibes are emanating from Dhaka.