The estimates of India’s vital statistics

Udayan Hazarika

(The writer can be reached at udayanhazarika@hotmail.com)

The Registrar General of Census Commissioner of India has recently published (11 May 2025) various vital statistics of India for the year 2021. His office is responsible for estimating these vital statistics annually using samples based on the latest census data. Prior to the present publication, the last detailed compilation of this series was brought up in the year 2020. A comparative analysis of the two sets of data concerning the years 2020 and 2021 shows marked improvements in some aspects and not so satisfactory results in some other aspects, highlighting the necessity of focused effort in these areas.

The reports presented the population data, classifying these into three broad categories, namely the 0-15 age group, which happens to be the first broad category, followed by the 15-59 age group, which is also the age group of the most productive labour force, and thirdly, the 60-plus age group. The 2020 report showed that the urban populations are becoming older than the rural population in at least two counts – (1) when they are between the ages of 15 and 59 and (2) when they are above 60+. In the first case, of the total urban populations, 70.1 per cent belong to the age group 15-59, while another 8.4 per cent come from the 60+ age group, making the total 78.5 per cent. In the case of rural areas, however, of the total rural population, 65.6 per cent comes from the age group 15-59, followed by 8 per cent from the 60+ age group, i.e., 73.6 per cent in all. The above phenomenon indirectly implies that in urban areas, more and more populations will be getting older quickly, resulting in an acute shortfall in labour forces. This shortfall will persist for a long time unless they are backed up externally (either by way of migration from rural areas or from other states). A similar trend can also be observed in the current report (concerning 2021), which shows that of the total rural populations, 64.8 per cent come from the age group 15-59 and 8.8 per percent from the 60+ category, i.e., 73.6 per percent in all. While in the case of the urban population, the total comes to 78.4 per percent. This is quite a critical situation. When we add up both rural and urban populations, we have 75.4 per percent of India’s total population above the age of 15.

It may be noted that as per the report of 2020, the children of the ages between 0 and 14 constituted almost one-fourth (24.8%) of the total population of the country. Interestingly, the proportion remained the same (24.8%) for the year 2021 also. The above national trend is also visible in the case of all the Indian states except Delhi, where older people are marginally less (71.0%) in urban areas than in rural areas (71.9%) in respect of the 15-64 age group. The rural-urban divide appears to be quite acute in the case of Maharashtra, which is 6.3 percentage points apart, followed by Assam, which is 6.2 percentage points apart. Thus, in the case of all other states, the gap is lower than 6.2 percentage points, which is a rather big gap.

The report estimates the crude birth rate (CBR) of the population in terms of – i.e., rural and urban areas. CBR is a primary measurement of the number of live births in a population. It indicates the number of live births per thousand of population in a year. It is also an essential component of measuring population growth rate. The report shows that in 2020, the crude birth rate for the country as a whole was 19.5 births per thousand of population, which marginally came down to 19.3 per thousand in the next year. The rural and urban break-up shows that, in rural areas, CBR was 21.1 per thousand in 2020, which was reduced to 20.9 in the next year, i.e., 2021. Similarly, for urban areas, it was 16 per thousand in 2020 and 15.9 per thousand in 2021. Although falling marginally, it is indicative of the fact that it is falling gradually. In 1971, India’s CBR was 36.9 per thousand; in 2001, it touched the level of 25.4, and now we have 19.3 per thousand. Among the bigger states/UTs, in 2021, Kerala had the lowest birth rate of 12.9, followed by Delhi with 13, while Bihar had the highest birth rate of 25.6, followed by UP with 24.8 per thousand. The CBR of Assam is towards the higher side, i.e., 20.6 per thousand.

Another important demographic variable is the death rate, which is a mortality indicator of a particular population. Like birth rate, we express total deaths in a particular population within a definite time, usually a year. As per the 2020 report, India’s death rate was 6.0 per thousand of the population, which, however, increased to 7.5 in 2021. This reverse trend is possibly attributable to the large-scale deaths that occurred due to covid-19 and related ailments. In 1971, India’s CDR was 14.9/000, and now it is becoming nearer to half. State-wise, Delhi has the lowest death rate of 5.4, followed by Jammu and Kashmir with 5.7. Chhattisgarh has the highest death rate of 10.1, followed by Kerala with 9.0. The death rate of Assam is 6.6 per thousand of the population.

The natural growth rate of a community is the difference between its crude death rate and its crude birth rate at a particular time. If the national CBR of India in 2021 was 19.3 and that of the CDR of the same year was 7.5, then the natural growth rate comes to 11.8 per thousand of the population of that year. The natural growth rate thus indicates the population growth of a community in a particular year resulting exclusively from the births and deaths occurring in that community. However, growth or contraction in a population occurs for a variety of other reasons, like migration, expulsion, etc., which are not components of the natural growth rate.

Infant mortality rate (IMR) is another important mortality indicator that occupies tremendous importance today, especially in third world countries. Infant mortality rate is defined as the total number of infant deaths (of less than one year) per thousand live births.   The 2020 SRS report showed that the infant mortality rate for India was 28 per thousand live births, and it was the same for both males and females. The rate was decreased to 27 per thousand of live births in the next year, i.e., 2021. However, IMR is much higher in the case of rural areas (30/000) in 2020 compared to 18/000 in urban areas. This reflects both the non-availability of healthcare facilities in rural areas and the dominating illiteracy among the rural people.

In the year 2020, more than half of India’s population (51.6 per cent) remained unmarried. There was a marginal change in the year 2021 with a contraction in the percentage of the never-married population to 51.2 per cent. This contraction was possible mainly due to the fact that more and more people whose marriages were stalled due to the Covid-19 situation and resultant lockdown got engaged quickly in the following year. This resulted in the increase in the percentage of married population from 45.2 per cent to 45.8 per cent. Quite an insignificant gain was also recorded in respect of the third category, i.e., widowed, divorced, or separated, in 2021 over 2020. On the gender front, in 2020, more males remained unmarried (56.7%) than females (46.2%), and the trend continued to remain the same in the succeeding year also. In both years, the percentages of married women, i.e., 48.8% (2020) and 49.0% (2021), are far better than the percentages of married males (41.8% and 42.1%).