The greatest risk of 2025 and beyond

Tanuj Goswami

(tanujuri03@gmail.com)

The Global Risk Report-2025, outlining the major global risk factors on three terms—current, medium, and long till 2035—was recently presented at the World Economic Forum, following the Global Risk Perception Survey (GRPS)-2025 having interviewed a large group of renowned global experts in different fields.

The World Economic Forum, in its annual meeting held in Switzerland, singled out global conflicts/wars as the greatest risk facing the world in the current year out of 33 risk factors as per GRPS 2025.

The emerging major risks pertain primarily to environmental, societal, geopolitical, geo-economic, and technological issues. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, raging conflicts in the Middle East drawing into its fold big nations with their proxies, and the escalating crisis in Sudan and elsewhere have topped conflicts/wars as the biggest risk factors with accelerating geopolitical and geo-economic crises. Israel’s seven front wars at a time in the world’s most volatile and chaotic region are a case in point, unheard of in this small nation’s historical past for their very survival.

Evolving war scenarios and their consequential effect in many parts of the world have been very distasteful and damaging enough; further, it is reported that the perception of unilateralism tends to take firm root, outpacing the only time-tested doctrine of multilateralism/bilateralism to mitigate the crisis in conflict regions across the world.

The situation looks critically grim considering the cascading worse impact on humanitarian issues that are looming ominously in some parts of the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, and Eastern Europe.

The multiple crises of conflicts/wars have meanwhile precipitated societal polarisation, incoherence, acute deprivation, and human suffering, leading to large-scale displacement and forced migration of millions of people, reaching an all-time higher dimension. In the year 2024 alone, more than 200,000 people were killed on the battlefields, many millions were fatally injured, and thousands of infrastructures like roads, bridges, agricultural firms, power stations, water plants, markets, hospitals, schools, buildings, and buildings were reduced to rubble.

It is very distressing that globally the military expenditure has reached a peak level of $2.4 trillion in 2023. The ongoing trend and race for arming oneself with the most modern and sophisticated war equipment have escalated manifold. Such a mad rush for garnering laser-guided missiles and other lethal weapons has heightened distrust and animosity between nations. The creation of new blocks, the assertion of one-sided authority on coastal/sea routes, and the claim over nearby sovereign territories by some countries have made matters complicated.

To top it all off, the recent confirmation by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) about Iran’s near capability to produce weapon-grade enriched uranium has unnerved the entire Western world. Iran, along with its proxies, has openly declared its objective of totally wiping out the Jewish state of Israel from the Middle East, which has sparked a new orientation of security concern.

Meanwhile, the threat of nuclear weapons by nuclear-powered nations is alarmingly increasing, and the option of their use is kept open and made public by Russia and North Korea against their adversaries. Russia, China, and North Korea have been a growing concern for the NATO bloc, and the situation will turn critical if the deteriorating US-China trade war and the South China Sea tussle in the neighbouring Asia-Pacific region are not scaled down.

The disastrous effects of conflicts, the high cost of living, widening inequalities in terms of income, shortages of foodstuffs, rampant inflation, bad politics, debt issues, human trafficking, large criminal activities, gang rivalry, drug abuse, and syndicates make enforcement of law and order a herculean task for the enforcing authorities and the regulators in many countries.

Furthermore, it is most unfortunate that the planetary consensus is receding and becoming far-fetched even at the World Forums. The dreaded and greatest risk of extreme climatic events of this century is beginning to trigger irreversible changes. The COP-29 held a few months back in Azerbaijan cast a long shadow on critically reaching unanimity on the most important issues, like funding for the developing nation for a transition to clean and green energy, and also the failure to get the developed nation to commit to funding in climate mitigation efforts.

Likewise, the 5th and final Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee meeting held in Busan, South Korea, following arduous years of work to develop an International Legally Binding Instrument on Plastic Pollution, including the Marine Environment, failed to reach consensus on a World Plastic Treaty against plastic pollution.

It is ironic that the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), a very high-profile world body constituted to hammer out and arrive at a consensual point on plastic menace by way of a treaty, couldn’t get to the unanimity of opinion even after a series of intensive meetings/discussions with all concerned stakeholders worldwide.

The nations of the planet Earth woefully fail to fathom the impending dangers and their acute catastrophic fallout. Such unpreparedness and insensitiveness will certainly lead to an ecological collapse beyond redemption.

This alarm bell has been ringing for quite a long time. So far, the pace of rapidly accelerating ecological degradation and counter-green actions has been inversely proportional, forcing us to be stuck in doom and gloom. The deadline set for 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C and reduce gas emissions by 43% is unlikely to be met.

Meanwhile, many parts of the world are witnessing unprecedented bouts of floods, torrential rain, tornadoes, wildfires, dwindling farm produce, severe drought, water scarcity, hot climate, a spike of unknown diseases, pathogens, famine, et al. The situation looks pretty stark, alarming, and reiterative.

Some nations’ prevailing tendency to oppose conventional ideas of world peace, world order, and mutual understanding and their attempt to relegate the august World Forums to non-entity cost the world dearly. They incentivised deep distrust, hatred, partisanship, and scepticism among countries, often leading to conflict situations.

So a broad outlook for preventive action, peace initiatives, diplomatic parleys, bilateralism, ceasefire, people-to-people contacts, global cooperation, and large investments for sustainable development is said to be the key to reinvigorating a decent, peaceful, virtuous approach to a renewed world peace and order.

Several countries have been reasonably clamouring for restructuring the Security Council, the most influential body of the UN, which has the potential to turn the tide for a rule-based world order. So, reforms in the UN and its ecosystem are considered indispensable at this hour for a better, nonpartisan, peaceful, representative, rule-bound world with a clean and green environment.