The Taliban conundrum

Dr Sudhir Kumar Das (dasudhirk@gmail.com)

Taliban announced its new caretaker government on 7th September led by Mullah Hasan Akhund as the Prime Minister, Mullah Yaqoob as the acting defense minister and Amir Khan Muttaqi as the foreign minister and ironically enough Sirajuddin Haqqani, a UN designated terrorist on whose head there is a bounty of $5 million announced by the FBI of America, is the interior minister. Seventeen out of the 53 members of the new Taliban interim government are listed by the UN Sanction Committee as terrorists. All those leaders of the Taliban, Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai and Mullah Baradar who had made some positive vibes about India have been successfully sidelined under Pakistani command. The Pakistani stamp of approval writ large in the formation of this Taliban government. The triumphalism showed by the ISI chief Faiz Hameed during his visit to Kabul is a proof of the depth of Pakistani influence over Taliban. Much to the chagrin of the international community this government is anything but inclusive. Rather it is an exclusive club of Taliban military wing sidelining the group that led the Doha talks. They have made no mention so far as to the holding of elections or democracy. There is no change in their attitude towards women, no women have been included in the ministry, and rather they have totally abolished the earlier Ministry of Women Affairs of the last government and have also barred them from playing all kinds of sport that puts them back to the Taliban 1.0 days of 1990s. All these initial announcements point to the fact that Taliban 2.0 is in no way different from Taliban 1.0 of 1996 contrary to Pakistani propaganda that they are a changed and more civilized lot now.

Governing a country like Afghanistan is a highly challenging task. A country which stands at lowly 173 out of a World Bank list of 190 countries and 165 in the list of Transparency International out of 180 requires more than just the implementation of Sharia law to uplift its 3.80 crore population from the quagmire of poverty and economic deprivation. It is an acknowledged fact that Taliban has been and is a belief-oriented party rather than a state-oriented one. Its prime concern is perpetuating a particular brand of Islam among its people rather than their economic well being. No member of the minority Hazara community has been included in the new government despite the fact that they are one of the most significant minorities living in Afghanistan for generations. The rate of literacy in Afghanistan stands at 43%, according to 2018 data and it has increased from a lowly 31.4% in 2011. In the field of economy too Afghanistan has made significant progress in the last 20 years, the $2 billion GDP of 1996 has been increased to $20 billion in 2021. So the last 20 years of democratic rule has brought about a semblance of progress to Afghanistan. Now it remains to be seen how Taliban takes this progress forward or relegates it back to the Medieval Age. The new government in Afghanistan has to grapple with three basic problems at hand: political, humanitarian, and economic. The Taliban has not mentioned anything about democracy or elections nor have they stated how long this interim government will continue to function and who will choose the agents of governance. It seems they will share power among themselves without any political right given to the people of the country. If that happens, the people of Afghanistan who have tasted the liberty of a democratic setup for the last twenty years may find the new political system hard to digest. In the absence of international aid the Afghan people are in for a huge humanitarian crisis, like shortage of food items and medicines. Many Afghans foresee this impending humanitarian crisis and want to flee the country. Many have already fled. The new Taliban government cannot access the US$ 9 billion in reserves most of which is held by the New York Federal Reserve. The IMF has also suspended the transfer of some US$450 million. As a result the new Afghan government is staring at a huge financial crisis. The banks have already run dry of cash and long queues in front of the banks and ATMs are a common sight in Afghan towns and cities.

To expect that Taliban would act as a modern, democratic government implementing the concept of a welfare state respecting rights of its citizens irrespective of their ethnicity, religion, and race is like asking for the moon. Instead of building a liberal, people friendly image, at least in the initial phase, they have chosen to present their familiar brutal and medievalist mindset by beating up journalists for the crime of covering a protest march by women demanding equal rights. The hope that since Taliban is craving for international legitimacy and it would at least pretend to be a moderate and inclusive government is fast disappearing with this hard-line approach of the new ruling dispensation. The international community looks at the Taliban government to redress the two major issues: first, terrorism spreading to other parts of the world emanating from Afghan land, second, how they act in respect of women's right, human right, and rights of the minorities living there. The constitution of the present ruling dispensation does not enthuse the international community that a government that excludes women and minorities, and members of non-Taliban groups from the formation of the government cannot be expected to safeguard human rights, women's right, and the rights of the minorities.

Paradox does not need a more illustrative example; the USA invaded Afghanistan to hunt down the Al Qaeda terrorists considered the masterminds of the 9/11 sheltered by the Taliban. It fought them for 20 years, spent over $2 trillion, lost over 2,400 American lives, and finally decided to hand over Afghanistan on a platter to those very forces it had fought so long. It is a strange coincidence that the Doha Agreement between the USA and the Taliban was signed on 29th February, 2020, the anniversary of which can only be celebrated every four years like the presidential elections in the US. Many now hold Zalmay Khalilzad, the American emissary, responsible for drafting such a squeamish agreement with Taliban that sounds more like a surrender document than an agreement between two equal powers. America would love to forget the date as a point in history when they surrendered power to the very same force they had fought. But unfortunately, for the Taliban they can only celebrate once in every four years by firing tracers and gunshots and may be by carrying out a few public executions observing the day they had defeated America.